Welp, after going perfect through 10 weeks, I’m finally moving on to my first second-chance survivor pool. And honestly, that’s exactly what I get for going against my instincts and trusting the Washington Commanders.
As a New York Giants from Maryland fan, I know from first-hand experience how much Washington struggles at home against New York, no matter who’s in the uniform. But I thought Tommy DeVito was reason enough for that to change, and I was wrong. For anyone who tailed, sorry for leading you astray.
Now, let’s put it behind us and move on to a team I feel a lot better about. Before we get to Week 12, here’s a look at where things stand:
Record: 10-1
Already used: Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers, Saints, Cowboys, Commanders (L)
5
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals)

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
The spread for this game is only a point and the Steelers just fired their offensive coordinator, but I just don’t see Pittsburgh losing to Jake Browning at quarterback.
4
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington Commanders)

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Dallas to roll in this game, but just as cautious as I should’ve been picking Washington against New York is how cautious I would be in picking Dallas against Washington. This rivalry doesn’t mean nearly as much as it used to because it is so lopsided, but there should be some fire there for Thanksgiving. In the end, though, I expect Dallas to come out on top.
3
San Francisco 49ers (at Seattle Seahawks)

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
This is probably the best Thanksgiving Day game on paper, thanks to two teams with winning records. But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I expect the Niners’ arrow to continue pointing up when it’s done.
2
Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)

AP Photo/Doug Murray
Picking from this many divisional games, somebody is going to suffer a letdown, but I’d be incredibly surprised if it was the Dolphins. We know Miami struggles against good teams, but the Jets aren’t that. And now New York is starting someone named Tim Boyle at quarterback.
1
Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay Packers)

AP Photo/Rick Osentoski
I don’t think there’s any question about the Lions being better than Green Bay, but a near-loss to Chicago last week doesn’t make you feel great going into this game. Still, if you have a team as good as Detroit available to pick this late in a survivor pool, it’s one of the safest picks you could make.