The Pittsburgh Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada Tuesday because their offense is a travesty. If the Buffalo Bills are an example of what can happen in the aftermath of firing a coordinator, there’s reason for optimism about improvement in Pittsburgh.
Now, before you pull your hair out, I know. This isn’t exactly an apples to apples comparison. Buffalo’s offense always had a much higher ceiling than Pittsburgh’s, because Josh Allen is so much better than Kenny Pickett. But aided by four New York Jets turnovers, the Bills exploded for their most points since Week 4 in their first game after firing Ken Dorsey. If the Steelers’ offense can improve just slightly, they’ll have a good chance to roll Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Why? Because Pittsburgh’s defense is the reason they’re 6-4 to begin with, and they may similarly create turnovers against quarterback Jake Browning in his first career start. This game isn’t about Pittsburgh’s offense to me, as much as it’s about the other side. Here’s a look at that game and a couple more lines I disagree with in Week 12, with odds from BetMGM.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1)
AP Photo/Matt Freed
How bad is Pittsburgh’s offense for the Steelers to be a mere one-point favorite over a team that just lost its starting quarterback for the season? Well, the answer is really bad. And it’s hard to expect things to get much better after the move, but it certainly can’t get worse, right? Oddsmakers apparently don’t think so because the spread didn’t budge.
That’s all I need to know to think Pittsburgh should be favored by more. Sure, we haven’t seen much of new Bengals QB Jake Browning, but I know all I need to know. He’s an undrafted 27-year-old making his first career start — against one of the league’s best pass rushes and the seventh-ranked team in defensive DVOA. I feel confident saying if Browning was built for this moment, we’d have known by now because a hobbled Joe Burrow wouldn’t have been playing earlier this season.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY Sports
The Lions are four games better than Green Bay, but this spread is just too big in my opinion. And that’s partly a reaction to what we saw last week, but mostly just an evaluation of the circumstances. It’s a Thursday game on short rest, and those are always weird. And that’s before you even get into the game being on Thanksgiving, which should bring out the best in Green Bay.
Speaking of, the Packers and Jordan Love just exploded for a season-high 322 passing yards in a win over the Chargers last week. And while I believe that to be much more a product of a bad Chargers defense, it’s a good time for them to take that newfound confidence on the road against a Lions team that had to dig out of a 12-point deficit just to beat the Bears last week.
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
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For this spread to be bigger than a point or two, let alone an entire field goal, is a little surprising. Sure, the Titans offense is better than Carolina’s. But that’s like having the best landfill. No matter how you slice it, both these offenses stink.
With that in mind, I look at the defenses as a possible determinant for this game. And over the last four weeks, Tennessee’s defense ranks dead last in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play, according to rbsdm. This is another area where both teams are bad, but Tennessee’s slightly worse defense could level the playing field and give Carolina a real shot at winning just its second game of the season.
