Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Why: The best-case scenario for Arizona is Kyler Murray returns to his former Pro Bowl form faster than expected after tearing his ACL. Mind you, this does not usually happen for quarterbacks who experience traumatic leg injuries. There’s too much timing, rhythm, and comfort involved in playing the position to reacclimate quickly against some of the finest athletes in the world. But if it does, Murray is certainly capable of carrying the Cardinals to mediocrity.

The far more realistic outcome is Murray struggles to adjust to game speed, a lackluster offensive supporting cast with little flash and substance wilts trying to carry its quarterback, and a no-name defense is cut up week in and week out. Arizona will be in position for the No. 1 overall pick next spring. I’m not even sure the Cardinals will get to three wins by the start of December. This is a safe under bet.

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Why: In Justin Fields’ third NFL season, he finally has a cupboard of weapons worthy of his talent. D.J. Moore is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who will elevate Fields the same way the quarterback amplifies his top playmaker. Then you have Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Khalil Herbert, and rookie runner Roschon Johnson. There is ability and depth in every skill group, virtually ensuring Fields won’t have to put on a red cape for the Bears to consistently score points. And that also means when Fields does perform his trademark heroics, they’ll likely mean more on the final scoreboard.

On defense, the pass rush will likely be an issue. There’s no sugarcoating it. But Chicago is betting its back seven — bolstered by additions of star linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards — provides sufficient camouflage. The Bears spent nearly $60 million guaranteed on their starting linebackers and have invested three second-round picks over the last two years into their secondary. If everyone even plays at their baseline, one of the league’s worst defenses in 2022 will suddenly be quite an asset.

This Chicago team has a lot of “ifs” it needs to be swung in its favor. But none are outlandish. The Bears are a savvy bet to comfortably surpass expectations.

Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Why: Cincinnati has the most complete team on paper in the sport. In fact, thanks to top-five quarterback Joe Burrow and his top-five skill group, they’re my Super Bowl 58 pick. From top to bottom, with Orlando Brown Jr. bolstering the offensive line and Lou Anarumo’s defense continuing to stifle, well, everyone, the Bengals do not have a glaring weakness. They are sound, and they will flat-out bully people sometimes.

It’s to the point where I’m not even concerned about a tough regular season schedule derailing Cincinnati. Seven playoff teams from 2022 on the slate? No problem. The Bengals are a bona fide heavyweight who know how to rise to the occasion in the biggest games. The franchise record for wins in a single season is 12. Don’t be surprised when the 2023 edition smashes that mark.

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Why: Sean Payton is not a miracle worker. Even he can’t save the Broncos from themselves.

For most of his tenure with the New Orleans Saints, Payton had one of the more talented offenses in the sport, with a formidable offensive line and a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. That is not the case with 34-year-old Russell Wilson and a patchwork offensive front relying on Mike McGlinchey being a drain plug. The popular narrative on the Front Range is that Payton can coax out the Wilson the Broncos thought they mortgaged their future for. That Nathaniel Hackett was simply one of the worst coaches in NFL history, and no one could’ve succeeded in last year’s abysmal situation.

But quarterbacks in their mid-30s who play as poorly as Wilson don’t just turn it around. The veteran didn’t even have 10 touchdown passes by the end of last Thanksgiving! Now he’s supposed to play like a Pro Bowler again because Payton simply understands how to manipulate defenses as a coach?

Fat chance.

Even if Wilson does show more juice, nothing guarantees his offensive line gives him enough time to make plays. A younger, more mobile version might have made it work anyway. This Wilson needs a consistent pocket and a viable running game. He is far from guaranteed to have either.

Denver is in for more crushing disappointment.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Why: The receiving room is weaker than it’s been for the last half-decade, and Kansas City is inching toward a stronger defensive approach.

But none of it matters.

Unless I’m mistaken, Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in football, is still throwing the ball. Travis Kelce, the best safety valve in football, is still catching passes from him. And Andy Reid, the best head coach in football, is still pushing all the buttons. There will be more inconsistent, alarming patches of play than we’re used to seeing from the Big Red Machine. But by the time the weather turns cold, the Chiefs will have rounded into playoff form and cruised to at least 12 wins.

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Why: This will not be the last time I cast doubt about whether Bill Belichick still has it. I probably started to wonder that the GOAT coach lost his fastball when he hitched his wagon to a glorified game manager like Mac Jones. And with all the “success” Belichick’s Patriots have enjoyed since Tom Brady left — zero playoff wins, two seasons under .500 — I’m starting to believe that ole No. 12 played a bigger role in New England’s unprecedented Super Bowl dynasty.

When it comes down to it, we might remember the 2023 season as the breaking point for Belichick. Sure, the Patriots can get stops. What Belichick team wouldn’t be good on defense? But that matters less and less by the year. There’s only so much Matthew Judon, Kyle Dugger, and rookie Christian Gonzalez can do to buoy a listless offense led by Jones. And it’s not as if Jones has supreme playmakers either — JuJu Smith-Schuster is his No. 1 receiver.

What will likely happen is the Patriots will try to grind out wins with a strong running game and defense. Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, your table is ready. In 2006, this mix could easily have meant 11-12 wins. In 2023, in a division that now potentially features three high-flying offenses in Buffalo, Miami, and New York, it means six wins and a top-10 pick in the draft.

Charles LeClaire-USPRESSWIRE

Why: I’m convinced. The day Mike Tomlin fails to keep his team above water is the day hell officially freezes over.

In 16 years, Tomlin’s Steelers have never finished with a losing season. Even in those seasons where Ben Roethlisberger’s right arm was held together by rubber bands and paper clips, Pittsburgh still managed to salvage respectability. I’m not about to bet against an elite coach with perhaps his finest roster on paper since the Steelers won the AFC in 2010.

Of course, a lot rides on sophomore Kenny Pickett making a considerable leap. As a rookie, Pickett struggled to consistently challenge defenses downfield. With improved comfort and targets like George Pickens, Pat Freirmuth, and yet another act of Allen Robinson, this shouldn’t be an issue in 2023. I shouldn’t have to say much about a defense that harbors four potential All-Pros (T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Alex Highsmith) and further bolstered its secondary by adding Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr.

Factor in a cupcake schedule — Pittsburgh faces just four playoff-caliber teams in its first 10 games — and the Steel Curtain is prepared to make a comeback.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Why: I can’t possibly confirm it for sure, but you will likely fail to find a bigger hater of this front-running squad on the football internet than me.

I understand San Francisco added Javon Hargrave to an already devastating pass rush. I know Kyle Shanahan seems to believe Brock Purdy is the second coming of another prolific former sixth-round quarterback. But I get a bad feeling about a team trying to, once again, run it back with an overmatched signal caller that needs to have his hand held and a group that flat-out refuses to look forward after getting its butt whooped in last year’s NFC title game.

The 49ers are so talented that their baseline is double-digit wins. But I am not nearly as enamored with an organization on a self-destructive mission to win without a difference-making quarterback. At a certain point, the ceiling caves in if it’s asked to carry way too much. And the 49ers do not strike me as a roster prepared to handle the adversity of any potential Purdy/Sam Darnold/Trey Lance struggles. To come close and so far and fall flat again is a recipe for an emotional letdown. If anything, this is the year a collective implosion could be just around the corner.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you, especially when it comes to the team residing in the NFC West that I appreciate much more …

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Why: A year after shocking the football world with a playoff berth, sleeper MVP candidate Geno Smith and Co. are prepared to take the next massive step.

Once he heals from a wrist injury, Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects as the perfect slot complement to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on both boundaries. The young franchise book ends — Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas — look like they’re about to afford Seattle a wall of an offensive line. And I can’t gush enough about a defense that has Bobby Wagner back in the mix and added a ballhawk like Devon Witherspoon.

With Smith in tow, Seattle has the top quarterback in the NFC West (a top-3 quarterback in the conference) and Pete Carroll — a coach who should be remembered as an elite sideline leader. The Seahawks are young and, realistically, a year away from true Super Bowl contention. But I’m bullish on the 12s. I love what Carroll’s achieved in his latest rebuild to turn the Seahawks into a sleeping giant in the NFC.