The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. Bryce Young delivered on his overwhelming odds to go No. 1 overall to the Carolina Panthers and broke a 75-year streak for the Alabama Crimson Tide in the process.
C.J. Stroud became the No. 2 overall pick of the Houston Texans after weeks of reports that his stock was falling. Will Levis is still waiting around.
So what better time than to look ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit next year?
DraftKings posted its extremely early odds for the top pick in 2024 and, no surprise, USC quarterback Caleb Williams (-550) is the heavy favorite.
Williams enters the 2023 college season as the favorite for the Heisman Trophy as well at +550. But that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to add both achievements to his resume.
In fact, only five Heisman winning quarterbacks have gone No. 1 overall in the draft that immediately follows their award-winning season since Carson Palmer was the top pick in 2003.
- Carson Palmer (Heisman 2002, No. 1 pick 2003)
- Cam Newton (Heisman 2010, No. 1 pick 2011)
- Baker Mayfield (Heisman 2017, No. 1 pick 2018)
- Kyler Murray (Heisman 2018, No. 1 pick 2019)
- Joe Burrow (Heisman 2019, No. 1 pick 2020)
Of those quarterbacks, only Newton delivered a Super Bowl to the team that drafted them.
All of which is to say now is probably a good time to sprinkle some small wagers on non-Williams options to go No. 1 next year.
No wide receiver has gone No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, but if anyone could break that streak, Marvin Harrison Jr. seems like a prime option. Offensive tackle Joe Alt out of Notre Dame is another name worth keeping an eye on. As is Ohio State defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr.
If a quarterback-needy team doesn’t get the top selection next year – much like the Bears this season — and they hang onto the pick, there are plenty of non-QB names who’ll command attention.
Williams will be around the top of the board as long as he stays healthy this year and his stats don’t fall off a cliff. That doesn’t mean he’s going No. 1. It means there’s better value elsewhere.
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