Michael Chow-Arizona Republic

Blake Schuster: Under

The Cardinals won four games last season and haven’t done anything noteworthy to improve while Kyler Murray works his way back from an ACL injury. The only thing worth playing for this year in a stacked NFC West is the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and five wins won’t get them there.

Charles Curtis: Under

Four wins or fewer sounds about right with this team struggling on both sides of the ball. Time to Crumble for Caleb.

Prince Grimes: Under

There’s no timeline on when Kyler Murray will return, and once he does, he’ll be in a new system with a new head coach. I’m expecting an extremely down year for Arizona.

Robert Zeglinski: Under

This is a thin roster with a quarterback returning from an ACL tear. The Cardinals will be in the conversation for the 2024 No. 1 overall pick all season.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY

Schuster: Over

A year ago the Falcons’ win total was set at 4.5. While it may seem foolish to expect such a leap this season, FTN’s Aaron Schatz told For The Win’s Ben Fawkes he expects Atlanta to make the playoffs and I have a hard time disagreeing with people who are a lot smarter than me when it comes to football.

Curtis: Over

I think given their division and some feistiness expected on offense, I’ll say they win nine.

Grimes: Under

Last year’s NFC South champion won all of eight games. I could see a similar result this year.

Zeglinski: Over

Someone’s got to take advantage of a division with bottom feeders. I’m not sold on Desmond Ridder being a franchise quarterback, but that skill position group is deadly. Few teams possess as much talent or versatility on offense.

(AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

Schuster: Under

I’m not entirely sold on the Ravens this year and it has more to do with the AFC North than Baltimore’s abilities. I still think this is a playoff team, but unless we get prime Odell Beckham Jr., it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Curtis: Over

Lamar Jackson coming back with a vengeance and an improved receiving corps makes me think they get to 11 wins. That said, in real life, I’m not touching this one. It’s going to be close.

Grimes: Over

An easy schedule to open the season should give Jackson time to settle into a new system and pick up where he left off before injuries took him off the field last year.

Zeglinski: Over

It won’t be an entirely smooth ride at first, but Lamar Jackson’s new weapons should open up the playbook like we’ve never seen before. I’m not sure where the defense gets a consistent pass rush, but it might not matter.

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Over

A Super Bowl contending roster that gets to play the likes of New England (twice), Denver, Tampa Bay and Las Vegas. Double-digit wins should be a given.

Curtis: Over

I’m fairly confident, with a whiff of nervousness.

Grimes: Over

Not sure they get to 13 wins again, but they should at least hit 11.

Zeglinski: Over

The Bills’ issues don’t stem from the regular season. They’ll cruise from September through early January. It’s what happens in the playoffs when Stefon Diggs is Josh Allen’s only reliable target.

(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Schuster: Under

There’s a very real chance the Panthers begin the season 0-6 with slate featuring Atlanta, New Orleans, Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit and Miami. Opening the year against six consecutive playoff contenders is a tough ask of any team, let alone a rookie quarterback like Bryce Young.

Curtis: Under

I like the defense, but Young will have his struggles and the whole offense might be hard to watch.

Grimes: Under

I have Carolina at around six or seven wins.

Zeglinski: Under

Young will struggle to acclimate, and a supporting cast of glorified role players won’t help him much. This is a mediocre football team at least a year away from relevance.

Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Over

Say hello to your 2024 NFC North champions. The Bears sandbagged themselves last year so they could take the league by storm this season and I’m all in.

Curtis: Over

The Year of Justin Fields will include at least eight wins. Surprised this number isn’t higher.

Grimes: Under

The Bears will be fun! But I’m not ready to say they’ll jump from three wins to more than seven.

Zeglinski: Over

The lack of a difference-making edge rusher concerns me, but there’s enough talent around Justin Fields now to see this team making a leap to Wild Card contender. If Fields makes the Year 3 leap, Chicago surpasses this ceiling easily.

Schuster: Over

Keep Burrow healthy and there’s no game this team can’t win. I’d take this line up to 12.5 easily.

Curtis: Over

Oooooo. That’s a must-bet number right there, just as long as Burrow is OK.

Grimes: Over

Big believer in the Bengals.

Zeglinski: Over

Cincinnati has the best team on paper in all of football. As long as everyone stays healthy, they’ll win the AFC North and be in position for another AFC title game appearance. That’s a minimum expectation.

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY

Schuster: Under

The Browns get the benefit of facing Houston, Denver, Arizona and Indianapolis this year but reaching 10 wins in the AFC North is a pretty big stretch.

Curtis: Under

Ten wins? For this team? In that division? I’m not buying.

Grimes: Under

They should be better, but I just don’t see 10 wins on the schedule.

Zeglinski: Under

Deshaun Watson, and his past more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct in what the NFL would later deem “predatory behavior,” is an overrated bumslayer. That soul-selling trade for the quarterback is about to be firmly cemented as an all-time franchise killer.

(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Schuster: Over

Once again: Schatz says the Cowboys are going to the Super Bowl. I’m not in a position to disagree with him.

Curtis: Over

Balance on both sides of the ball mean they could be a lock to make the postseason.

Grimes: Over

I made a mistake betting against Dallas last year. Won’t make that mistake again.

Zeglinski: Over

Dallas has the NFC’s top team on paper. I adore the additions of Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks filling out a roster with a perfect CB2 and WR2. The Cowboys are appointment viewing for the right reasons.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Under

It’s going to take a lot more than Sean Payton and what’s left of Russell Wilson to turn this team around. And that’s before you factor in they have to play the Chiefs and Chargers twice each.

Curtis: Under

There’s been some Urban Meyer-esque buzz around Payton this preseason, enough that I’m selling here.

Grimes: Under

Denver should be better under Payton, but the turnaround won’t happen in one year.

Zeglinski: Under

Once again, I am here to remind people that Nathaniel Hackett was probably not the only reason Russell Wilson stunk in 2022. The other reason is that Mr. Unlimited is 34 years old and just might be old and inept now.

David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Under

The Lions were very fun last year with little expectations. Now the pressure is on and it’s hard to see Detroit going over nine wins.

Curtis: Over

Again, I’m not going to bet on this one, but sure, they win 10 games.

Grimes: Under

It’s probably more likely the Lions finish somewhere around last year’s 9-8 record.

Zeglinski: Over

Detroit’s constructed a heck of a program and has itself a legitimate NFC title game dark horse. The Lions are built well in all the right places — especially in the trenches — and will flat-out bully teams.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Under

The Packers haven’t finished last in the NFC North since 2005. That streak ends this year.

Curtis: Under

A tougher division, no Aaron Rodgers … yeah, I say they struggle.

Grimes: Under

Are they going to match last year’s win total after swapping out Rodgers for Jordan Love? Of course not.

Zeglinski: Under

I do not believe in Jordan Love or that underwhelming receiving corps. I’m used to seeing an elite defense breaking from having to carry the offense on its back all year.

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip,File)

Schuster: Under

I don’t dislike what the Texans are putting together. I just think they’re a year or two away still. A schedule featuring Baltimore, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Cincinnati doesn’t help matters.

Curtis: Under

C.J. Stroud might be good someday. That someday is not this year.

Grimes: Under

Houston should make some strides, but that won’t translate to many wins.

Zeglinski: Under

DeMeco Ryans received a six-year contract with the Texans. That is as good a tell as any as to this team’s own justifiable low expectations for 2023.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY

Schuster: Under

The Colts’ schedule is absolutely brutal. With games against the Jaguars (twice), Ravens, Rams, Titans, Saints and Browns within the first eight weeks, Indianapolis could find itself battling for a No. 1 pick quickly if it isn’t careful.

Curtis: Under

Anthony Richardson will also be good someday. And while that someday may come sooner than Stroud’s someday, it’s the rest of the team I have questions about.

Grimes: Under

Indy might finish last in the AFC South.

Zeglinski: Over

Anthony Richardson should be the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, and Indy still has a ton of talent left over from the recent era on both sides of the ball. It’ll all be enough to surprise.

[Bob Self/Florida Times-Union]

This is a super fun, young Jags team that should reach double-digit wins but there are so many trap games on this schedule that it’ll really come down to Jacksonville not getting too ahead of itself.

Curtis: Over

I’m buying what they’re selling, with ease.

Grimes: Over

Not by much, but they’ll get to 10 wins in a weak division.

Zeglinski: Over

A top-heavy squad with serious weaknesses in both trenches, Jacksonville is a beneficiary of being the best of the worst AFC South.

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Over

Does it really matter who is catching the ball when Pat Mahomes is the one throwing it? We’ll find out this season.

Curtis: Over

Next.

Grimes: Over

And they’ll do it with ease.

Zeglinski: Over

Are Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid all still together? I rest my case.

(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)

Schuster: Under

In my opinion this is the biggest lock of all 32 teams. The Raiders are going to be awful.

Curtis: Under

Bleh. I’m with Blake.

Grimes: Under

I feel really good about this pick too.

Zeglinski: Under

Caleb Williams would look good in silver and black …

(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

Schuster: Over

I’m all-in on this Chargers team. Quentin Johnston is my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Curtis: Over

They’ve been knocking at the door. As long as the Brandon Staley negative buzz is behind him and the team, I think they knock it down this year.

Grimes: Over

If they can stay healthy, the Chargers can be explosive. But that’s always a big IF.

Zeglinski: Under

Kellen Moore’s presence and influence are being overstated, and the Chargers, with Brandon Staley, are wasting another supremely gifted quarterback’s prime. Fade this team hard before they inevitably fade themselves.

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY

Schuster: Under

This isn’t a knock on the Rams’ roster so much as it is a realization that wins in the NFC West are going to be ridiculously hard to come by.

Curtis: Under

I dunno. Is Matthew Stafford good anymore? Is the supporting cast around him and Aaron Donald any good? When in doubt, take the under.

Grimes: Over

This is a really good line, and I can make a case to go either way. So I’ll roll with plus odds on the over.

Zeglinski: Under

This team stinks from top to bottom. I’m actually shocked Sean McVay returned to coach this mess.

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY

Schuster: Over

The second-best team in the AFC East gets it done. Games against the Patriots (twice), Broncos, Raiders, Titans and Commanders help the process.

Curtis: Over

I think they’re a Wild Card team at worst.

Grimes: Under

They’ll be a nine-win team. Again.

Zeglinski: Over

I’m not sold on Tua Tagovailoa OR Mike McDaniel, but the floor is too tantalizing. Miami can simply overwhelm defenses at will.

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Over

Just barely, though. The Vikes get to play Tampa Bay, Carolina, Denver and Las Vegas, which should get them nearly halfway to that total.

Curtis: Under

We’re all underrating this team. That said, I’m so on the fence about this number that I have to take the under by a hair.

Grimes: Under

It can’t get much better than last year for this team, and that playoff loss had to be demoralizing.

Zeglinski: Under

The paper tigers of all paper tigers finish with a record more befitting of the underwhelming talent on the roster. Stat-padding quarterback, mediocre defense in transition — am I missing something?

(AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

Schuster: Over

Mac Jones should be able to mediocre his way to eight wins this season.

Curtis: Under

Meh. They’re meh everywhere, enough so that Bill Belichick can’t get them to eight wins.

Grimes: Under

You never feel good counting out a Belichick team, but this division is tough.

Zeglinski: Under

We’ll be talking about potential Belichick retirement rumors by early December.

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Schuster: Over

I’m trusting Schatz again here, but I don’t feel great about it.

Curtis: Under

This team screams eight wins to me.

Grimes: Under

Remember when I said the winner of this division could end up with eight wins? Yeah, here’s my winner.

Zeglinski: Under

I know better than to trust Schrodinger’s Quarterback, a.k.a. Derek Carr. These Saints are the epitome of a nondescript team you sometimes forget about.

(AP Photo/Adam Hunger, File)

Schuster: Over

I know Prince and Charles are both hammering the over here, and while it would be easy to go against them, I really love this New York offense.

Curtis: Over

Fan bias? No. This team can get to eight wins even in a tough division. The playoffs? Different story.

Grimes: Over

I’ll be honest, I didn’t exactly hammer this. Eight wins won’t be easy to come by, but I think they do it.

Zeglinski: Over

Brian Daboll’s Giants played a year ahead of schedule in 2022, and they’ll feel the difference this year. But not enough to drop off the face of the Earth.

AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Schuster: Under

The Jets will be lucky to finish third in the AFC East. Aaron Rodgers isn’t striking the same type fear in his opponents while wearing this shade of green. Count me out on all the Jets hype.

Curtis: Over

Fine. I’m in. Am I excited by this pick? Heck no.

Grimes: Over

They’ll struggle out the gate but hit this over down the stretch with games against the Raiders, Falcons, Texans, Commanders and Browns in the second half of the season.

Zeglinski: Over

A 39-year-old Rodgers, for at least a few months, should get Gang Green pushing double digits. Rodgers’ overall impact is probably being overhyped, though.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Over

12-5 actually feels pretty right for this team — as long as they stay healthy.

Curtis: Over

Heck yeah.

Grimes: Over

I hate how good the Eagles are.

Zeglinski: Over

They added Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith after losing a Super Bowl with a 25-year-old MVP-caliber quarterback. I repeat: They added Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith after losing a Super Bowl with a 25-year-old MVP-caliber quarterback.

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Schuster: Over

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has finished with fewer than nine wins just once since 2014. He’s never finished worse than second in the AFC North in back-to-back seasons.

Curtis: Over

I love what I’m seeing from this team. Kenny Pickett takes a step forward and the Steelers defense does its usual things.

Grimes: Under

This will be the first time Tomlin finishes with a losing record. I just like this division too much.

Zeglinski: Over

A combination of a cupcake schedule and a stacked cupboard of players has me rightfully believing in the evergreen power of Mike Tomlin.

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Schuster: Under

The NFC West is going to be a dogfight. I wouldn’t want to face this 49ers team if they make the playoffs because they’ll be as battle-tested as possible by then. They also have a team that tends to deal with some brutal injury luck, which makes this over tough to bet on when the under is plus-money.

Curtis: Over

They’re a Super Bowl contender. Even with question marks at QB, 11 wins seems more than doable.

Grimes: Over

It really depends on if Brock Purdy is the same quarterback we saw before the injury. If so, this is a lock.

Zeglinski: Under

At a certain point, the 49ers’ bold strategy of trying to win without a quarterback will blow up in their face. There is only so much everyone can else do for so long to compensate before everything implodes. Plus, have they gotten over that NFC title game loss last January? Or are they going to continue incessantly whining and looking backward? That can’t be healthy for a team’s mentality.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Over

No one is writing off Geno Smith this year. Not with the best wideout corps in the league at his disposal.

Curtis: Over

Nine wins? Sure!

Grimes: Over

Just barely, but I think they can go 9-8 again.

Zeglinski: Over

Give me those Geno Smith sleeper MVP odds, and let me sprint away with them. I love what the Seahawks have going on — have we talked about Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen enough? — and have installed a temporary moratorium on on-field criticism of Pete Carroll.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Schuster: Under

This team will look a lot better with Caleb Williams at quarterback next year. In the meantime, they should trade Mike Evans and embrace the tank.

Curtis: Under

Another team that should give up and rebuild, which feels like what they’re doing with their current QB room.

Grimes: Under

Even four wins feels generous for Tampa this year.

Zeglinski: Under

It’s so strange to me anyone would care about a “mid-off” quarterback competition between two players who probably won’t be on the roster in 2024.

Schuster: Under

This team has asked Derrick Henry to do everything for years now, and he’s been plenty successful, but how much longer can that last? And what do things in Tennessee look like if Henry is a shell of himself?

Curtis: Under

Mike Vrabel teams are tougher than they look … but they’re about to fall off a cliff. Yikes.

Grimes: Under

I’m right on the line with Tennessee. So let’s get that plus money on the under.

Zeglinski: Under

Those few years of serviceable Ryan Tannehill were fun, but Mike Vrabel’s group is in a transitional retool phase. Even if they don’t always act like it with signings like an early-30s DeAndre Hopkins.

(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Schuster: Under

A very fun offense that desperately needs an established quarterback probably won’t make it too far in a loaded NFC East.

Curtis: Under

The division is too good.

Grimes: Under

Sam Howell is gonna have to prove me wrong.

Zeglinski: Under

A new owner be damned, call me when they get a quarterback worth his salt in an impossible division.