If you’ve been an NFL fan over the past few decades, there is a very good chance that you’ve heard of, read or listened to Aaron Schatz break down the sport. He’s the creator of Football Outsiders, DVOA and the all-encompassing Football Almanac, which he’s taken to the FTN Network.
To get a copy of Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac 2023, click here.
The guide is now in its 19th season and features comprehensive team previews, predictions, playoff picks and more.
For The Win chatted with Aaron this week to get the inside scoop on some notable nuggets from the guide.
A 49ers-Bills Super Bowl
(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
Schatz: “My personal pick is the 49ers and Bills playing the Super Bowl. Our numbers would have Dallas and Buffalo as the most likely teams, but the Cowboys and 49ers are close, and I prefer Kyle Shanahan over Mike McCarthy. Dallas is No. 1 in our projections for most wins this season, and we project them with the second-best defense and No. 3 offense. Buffalo is our No. 1 projected team in DVOA and our No. 1 projected defense.”
A bet on the 49ers to beat the Bills in the Super Bowl currently pays 60-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Two NFC South teams make the postseason
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Schatz: “We think that two NFC South teams [Falcons and Saints] will make the playoffs because of the schedule. We’re a little higher on the Falcons because we believe their defense is improved, whereas the Saints’ defense is already good. We project both teams to be a little below-average on offense, but the schedule is really easy. Most people think Atlanta is a bad team, but we think they’re going to be average.”
The Saints are favored in 14 games this season and are -190 favorites to make the playoffs at DraftKings. The Falcons are favored in eight games and have +105 odds to make the playoffs (-125 to miss) at DK.
Cowboys are NFC's top team
(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Schatz: “We have Dallas and San Francisco close in our projections, then a gap and then Philadelphia.”
The Cowboys are projected with a total DVOA of 16.0% (tops in the NFC), while the Eagles are third at 10.5%. The Almanac gives the Cowboys the best chance to win the Super Bowl at 15.5%.
Dallas has the third-best odds in the NFC to win the Super Bowl (14-1) at DraftKings.
