When you take the best wide receiver from one team with a perennial MVP candidate at quarterback and put him on another team with an MVP candidate at quarterback, the new team’s QB should become a bigger favorite for the award.
That’s not exactly what happened when the Buffalo Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans Wednesday, handing over Josh Allen’s favorite target to the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud, and giving the Texans an offense that looks like this. But it should have.
Like Houston’s Super Bowl odds, Stroud’s already solid MVP odds have improved from where they opened, going from +1100 to +1000 at BetMGM — which ranks fourth. But the deal didn’t move him past Allen, who remains tied at second with Joe Burrow at +900. Patrick Mahomes leads the field at +600.
Stroud and Allen’s odds are an identical +1000 at Caesars.
MVP Odds Shift before and after the Diggs trade:
Josh Allen
Before: +800
Now: +1000CJ Stroud
Before: +1200
Now: +1000 pic.twitter.com/lJsBt7oSN2— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) April 3, 2024
Regardless of where they rank, Stroud’s odds are no doubt impressive for a second-year player, as they lead even the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson’s +1200 odds. But if Stroud’s odds shouldn’t be higher than what they are, Allen’s should absolutely be lower. Especially considering he lost not just his No. 1 receiver this offseason, but also his No. 2 receiver Gabe Davis. It’s a reason FTW didn’t grade the trade more favorably for Buffalo.
It’s also worth noting Allen didn’t become the MVP candidate we know today until Diggs arrived in Buffalo. That’s not to say he’ll regress to a bad player without Diggs, but it stands to reason he won’t be as good unless and until Buffalo makes another move to replace him. It’s also a good reason why we can expect Stroud to take another step forward in 2024. That might not mean he beats out someone like Mahomes or Jackson, but he’s absolutely a better bet than Allen now.
