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The 49ers will win their first Super Bowl since Steve Young if they do these 3 things

The San Francisco 49ers are, once again, at the precipice of their former glory.

It’s been nearly three decades since Steve Young roasted the San Diego Chargers with six touchdown passes in a 49-26 blowout in the 1995 Super Bowl. The years since have seen a smattering of playoff appearances and abject failure. Recently, head coach Kyle Shanahan has built San Francisco into a perennial contender, reaching the NFC title game four times in five seasons. Sunday marks his second Super Bowl appearance — and a potential breakthrough.

The 49ers enter Super Bowl 58 as a slight 2.5-point favorite behind a roster that ranked third in the NFL in both points scored and points allowed. Now they’ve got to face the same team that beat them in the 2020 Super Bowl.

This is a different Kansas City Chiefs team than the one they saw four years ago, but the main characters remain the same. Shanahan will have to devise a way to stop Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce while finding an edge against Andy Reid. Here are the three easiest ways he can do it.

1
Spam Christian McCaffrey carries

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Difficulty: Easy

The Chiefs defense is a major reason why a team whose scoring output dropped from 29.2 points per game in 2022 to 21.8 one year later is back in the Super Bowl. L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie are playing at an All-Pro level at cornerback. Chris Jones remains a wrecking ball up front. Kansas City’s 27.8 percent pressure rate against passing plays was second-highest in the NFL.

This does not mean there isn’t a glaring weakness in the Chiefs’ defense — and it’s the same issue the Niners face. Their run defense leaves a lot to be desired.

via rbsdm.com and the author

Kansas City’s 4.5 yards allowed per carry ranked 25th in the league. The players that wore down the clock in upset wins weren’t All-Pro standbys, either. The Chiefs lost games where Zamir White, AJ Dillon and Javonte Williams broke loose.

This is terrible news for them, because McCaffrey is the league’s most prolific running back. He led the league in both rushing yards and rushing yards over expected (RYOE) by a significant margin. He had at least one run of 25 yards or more in half his games this season. He’s had at least 15 carries in all but four games in 2023.

That means McCaffrey will be instrumental in creating space for Brock Purdy. That means plenty of handoffs but also screen passes, wheel routes, pre-snap motion and play-action fakes to keep the Kansas City defense guessing. The Niners are loaded with offensive weapons; none are more important to paving the road to the Lombardi Trophy than McCaffrey.

2
Shut down Travis Kelce

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Difficulty: Challenging

  • The Chiefs’ scoring offense when Kelce has at least 60 receiving yards: 25.3 (11 games)
  • The Chiefs’ scoring offense when Kelce has fewer than 60 receiving yards: 18.6 (seven games)

Kansas City is 9-2 in that first set of games, including 3-0 in the postseason. The team is 4-3 in the second set, losing to teams like the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders in the process.

Stopping Kelce is no small task. Over the last three games, he’s faced the league’s 16th, sixth and second-best passing defenses in terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback. In that stretch, he’s sprung for 23 catches on 27 targets for 262 yards and three touchdowns. Given his size, speed and connection with Mahomes, there’s no reliable way to stop him.

Using a slot corner to press him at the line? Nope.

Throwing an All-Pro safety into the mix with glue stick coverage? Nope.

Letting him literally run himself in circles? Nope.

Despite finishing the regular season on a cold snap, Kelce’s been red hot in the playoffs. That’s been the balm to soothe Mahomes’ passing game, even without a reliable wide receiver threat outside of Rashee Rice. But slowing down Kelce would put the onus on a wide receiving corps that led the NFL with 44 drops during the regular season.

That’s a margin of error that could decide the outcome of the Super Bowl. The Niners need to make it as wide as possible by diverting the Chiefs’ attention away from their Hall of Fame tight end.

3
Keep Brock Purdy upright (and avoiding his standard one interceptable pass per game)

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Difficulty: Very challenging

Blitzing Brock Purdy may be a piece of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s playbook after he harassed Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson with extra pass rushers. But it probably won’t be a regular feature, since Purdy’s rise has been predicated on his ability to read defenses quickly, get the ball out early and provide enough space for his playmakers to turn blitzes into giant gains after the catch.

Fortunately for Spagnuolo, this isn’t a 2023 Minnesota Vikings situation where he’s going to need to burn the boats and send hell every dropback. Kansas City is well equipped to bring pressure with its four down lineman every snap.

This is the luxury of having Chris Jones, who may have usurped Aaron Donald as 2023’s best interior defender. He’s not just a tackle, however; his biggest impact this season may have come lined up on the edge when he took on Pro Bowl left tackle Dion Dawkins to erase a potential go-ahead touchdown in the divisional round against the Buffalo Bills.

San Francisco doesn’t solely have to worry about Jones. George Karlaftis has seized his first-round potential and has four sacks and seven quarterback hits in his last four games, even if he couldn’t corral Josh Allen. Mike Danna is a perpetually underrated piece of that front who sets his teammates up for success while clearing the boards himself in stretches (career bests of 6.5 sacks and 13 quarterback hits this season). Charles Omenihu’s presence will be missed, but he wasn’t quite as powerful as his seven sacks in 11 games suggest before a torn ACL ended his playoffs.

Trent Williams can handle things at left tackle. The combination of Spencer Burford and Colton McKivitz on the other side is troubling. We know Kansas City can swing Jones between positions to wherever he can sew the most havoc. Purdy is going to have to step up, take his licks and deliver accurate throws through tight windows in big moments to win Super Bowl 58.

That’s fine! The last two years suggests he can do that. But those years also suggest he’s also going to serve up at least one thoroughly interceptable ball over four quarters in Las Vegas. Increased pressure will only add to that total.

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