No one statistic is absolute gospel in sports. They are too unpredictable to unequivocally trust any precedent wholeheartedly. But if there’s one rule that we should really care about when it comes to annual NBA championship contenders, it’s what the legendary Phil Jackson once said about how great teams must perform in the regular season.
The 11-time champion coach with the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers once said that for a team to be a true “elite” championship contender, it must win 40 games before losing 20. Now, that might seem like a random barometer that Jackson thought up out of thin air. But when you look at NBA history, it’s actually a fantastic indicator of who has a realistic chance of winning the title.
That’s because 27 of the last 30 NBA champions won 40 games before losing 20. Dearest readers, that is 90 percent of all title winners in recent memory. The only exceptions to Jackson’s rule during this time are:
- The 2004 Detroit Pistons (who acquired key contributor Rasheed Wallace at that year’s trade deadline)
- The 2006 Miami Heat, who started 30-20 before winning 15 of 16 games (including 10 straight)
- The 2021 Milwaukee Bucks
That’s it. Every other champion over the last three decades won 40 regular-season games before losing 20. That is mind-boggling to consider, and kudos to Jackson for figuring out that measuring stick.
What does this say about the 2024 NBA title contenders?
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Well, as of Wednesday evening, the 40-before-20 club for this season is officially set. Per Jackson’s well-established rule, only one of the four below NBA teams has a realistic chance of winning it all this June.
Let’s dive in and take a look.
1
Denver Nuggets (+475)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
2
Boston Celtics (+255)
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
3
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2000)
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
4
Oklahoma City Thunder (+2000)
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
