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Why they’ll win: A stifling defense

The Cavaliers’ best player is the electric Donovan Mitchell.

They wouldn’t have a prayer of winning, let alone the current No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, without his uncanny ability to score from anywhere. But this Cleveland team is defined by its elite defense first and foremost.

On the season, the Cavaliers are second in defensive rating. They also allow the third-least points in the paint — a good skill when half-court offense becomes the name of the game in the postseason. That front line of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen should take a bow.

Why they won’t: A mediocre half-court offense

Sure, Mitchell is a special player, but the Cavaliers ask him to do too much for their offense. If he doesn’t have it going, chances are they won’t score enough to win. Ironically, they are weakest on offense, where they are strongest on defense. This is reflected in Cleveland’s half-court offense statistics. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Cavaliers are just 18th in points in the half-court per 100 possessions. That is simply not good enough. If you can’t score when the competition is elite and forces you to slow things down and execute, then you can’t win an NBA title.

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Why they’ll win: The two-man game between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard

It’s weirdly been a disappointing season for Milwaukee. These Bucks were a team many pegged to be a heavyweight championship, and instead, they’ve kind of just limped around, staying barely above water at intermittent points. (Also, who fires and hires a coach at midseason for a veteran team with this much experience?)

With all of this said it’d be silly to write off the Bucks’ title chances entirely because they still have two of the best players in basketball — Antetokounmpo and Lillard. Antetokounmpo is having a down year (defensively), while Lillard also seems to have taken a moderate step back. But that sort of profile screams of two veterans who are likely saving their gas in the tank for the spring.

Why they won’t: Inner turmoil, a top-heavy roster

How many championship teams can you think of with seemingly this much inner turmoil still winning it all in the end? The late-era Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O’Neal Los Angeles Lakers really only come to mind, and they lost in the 2004 NBA Finals. I can’t say for sure what’s really going on with the Bucks behind the scenes, but the optics don’t look great.

Beyond the interpersonal chemistry factors, the roster is a little top-heavy. Khris Middleton is in clear decline because of health issues, while Malik Beasley and Pat Connaughton’s abysmal defense at the point of attack probably inspired a trade for Patrick Beverley. Outside of Lillard and a few cosmetic changes here and there, this is essentially the same lumbering team that got embarrassed in five games by the Miami Heat in last year’s first round.

(Note: That’s not good.)

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Why they’ll win: A cream-of-the-crop defense that comes in waves

The Timberwolves knew what they were doing when they acquired Rudy Gobert. The perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate would anchor their defense, which is now sound at every level. Want to beat Minnesota up in the paint? Gobert, Naz Reid, and even Karl-Anthony Towns are waiting for you. Want to get something going on the perimeter? Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels say good luck.

The Timberwolves have built a stout defensive fortress that many teams find challenging to penetrate for good reason.

Why they won’t: An iffy clutch offense and a lack of scoring talent

It’s no secret why the Timberwolves struggle in the clutch — any game with a five-point margin in the last minutes. They don’t have enough good or reliable offensive players!

Anthony Edwards is incredible, and Karl-Anthony Towns is a solid big-man scorer (when he’s on), but there’s really no one else on this team you’d be comfortable with a fourth-quarter shot. For as good as the Timberwolves’ defense is, their lack of consistent quality offensive execution at the end of games practically nullifies their prowess on the other end of the court. A 20th-ranked clutch offense (oof!) says as much.

You can shut down teams all you want for 3.5 quarters. Eventually, if you can’t score when it matters, the great ones will find a way to turn off the water on you and get timely baskets when they need them.

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Why they’ll win: The ascendance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams

Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP candidate after becoming a first-time All-Star starter. After missing his “official” rookie season, Holmgren has become one of the league’s top stretch fives, who also happens to average 2.6 blocks a game. There’s also the second-year Jalen Williams, who has looked like a future star in the making at intermittent points this season. Years after having the core of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden, it looks like the Thunder have another similarly promising nucleus. And they might have enough of that “surprise” factor to make a real run in the West playoffs.

Why they won’t: A lack of size and experience

Beyond Holmgren, saying the Thunder don’t have size would be an understatement. The next-tallest player on the roster is the 6-foot-9 Jaylin Williams, but they can’t play him too much because it detracts from their preference to play small ball. Oklahoma City is just 27th in total rebounding and is a staggering 29th in offensive rebounding. That will not cut it against any team with a massive frontline. At a certain point, basketball becomes a simple game: The taller players of similar skill sets usually win.

Beyond that, traditionally, young great teams breaking through as contenders for the first time don’t win titles right away in the NBA. They almost always have to pay their dues. Because there is such a stark difference between regular-season and playoff basketball, it’s almost impossible to be adequately prepared for the challenge and pressure without prior exposure. The Thunder could be a team that bucks the trend and makes a run anyway. More likely, they’ll win a round or two before bowing out to a superior, more experienced team in a series they’ll take as a good lesson for the future.

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Why they’ll win: A deep and cohesive playoff rotation with experience

There were questions about whether the Clippers could make the addition of James Harden work chemistry-wise. Those concerns have been quelled with Los Angeles having played like a top-four team in the West for the better part of three months. Harden has helped steady the Clippers’ offense of ball-dominant players, Kawhi Leonard is finally healthy, Paul George is still Paul George, and Russell Westbrook has accepted a sixth-man role with aplomb.

At their finest, the Clippers resemble a basketball tsunami. They can throw four confident, battle-tested future Hall of Famers at you and trust they’ll get it done. After years of consternation and frustration, this might be the best chance for a title for this specific group yet.

Why they won’t: Health, health, health

Let’s put aside the Clippers’ own lack of size and serious rim protection for a second. More than other teams, they can probably overcome that shortcoming. It’s just not how their roster is built.

No, no, the Clippers’ biggest obstacle to a title might be whether they can stay healthy. Aside from Westbrook, each of Leonard, George, and Harden have had serious questions about their health (and conditioning) in the not-so-distant past. This is also an older team trying to solidify its place as a top-four seed before the postseason. If the Clippers can’t strike the balance between a surge and burnout down the stretch, their title hopes might become slim.

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Why they’ll win: The deepest rotation in the NBA

No one can match the Celtics’ firepower from top to bottom.

Between Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Jaden Springer, Luke Kornet, and even the recently acquired Xavier Tillman, Boston seemingly has an answer for everything.

They can shoot from the perimeter, they’ve got scoring in the paint, they’ve got rim protection, and they’ve got multiple reliable ball-handlers. There is no one true flaw in this Celtics’ roster, and it’s why they will likely finish with the postseason’s No. 1 overall seed.

Why they won’t: Poor coaching, poor crunch-time execution, a lack of toughness

Unfortunately for the Celtics, they can’t answer any questions about their toughness until the postseason. So even with the NBA’s best record, all we can go off of with them is how often they have played down to their opponents in the past (hello, Erik Spoelstra’s Heat!). All we can go off of with them is how Joe Mazzulla sometimes seems utterly unprepared to make sound adjustments when his team is being tactically outmatched. All we can go off with them is how Tatum and Brown disappear and start inexplicably settling for bad jumpers when it’s time to close a team out.

The Celtics are more than good enough to win this year’s championship. That does not mean they have earned any trust when it matters.

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Why they’ll win: They have the best player in the world surrounded by the NBA’s best starting five

There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Reigning NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokić has separated himself as the best player in the league, and he doesn’t have a close second. When he turns on his “playoff mode,” the Nuggets are essentially unbeatable. It also helps that he’s flanked by the finest and most complementary starting lineup in the NBA. No wonder many people think these Nuggets could be the first back-to-back champions since the Kevin Durant Golden State Warriors.

Jamal Murray is a great No. 2 running mate with a complete offensive bag. Aaron Gordon is a dynamic Swiss Army Knife who can guard anyone on defense and bully anyone on offense. Michael Porter Jr. is a perimeter shooter who can catch fire. And Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has distinguished himself as one of the better three-and-D players on a stellar team in recent memory. Everyone’s best abilities feed off one another.

When these five players are dialed in and in rhythm together, the opposition is helpless. Their play in the clutch reflects this. Their offense can get any shot it wants when the game is on the line, and their No. 1 ranked clutch defense puts the clamps on simply when they flip the “switch.” Based on a recent convincing text from Jokić to his teammates, it seems that the switch has, in fact, been flipped.

Want to dethrone the Nuggets? Beat them when the game is close in the fourth quarter. That’s a LOT harder than it sounds.

Why they won’t: Depth and health

If the Nuggets have one shortcoming, it’s that they probably have a short playoff rotation. Young players like Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, and even Zeke Nnaji and Julian Strawther have occasionally turned heads, but they’re all still far from finished products. Reggie Jackson has been admirable as the backup point guard this year, but of late, he’s veering closer to “spot minutes” than anything meaningful in the postseason.

Of course, this lack of depth was largely Denver’s main issue during last year’s title run, as it often played Gordon as its backup center in the postseason. So, optimistically, the Nuggets are used to maximizing what they have. Provided this team stays healthy and rested, I can’t see anyone beating Denver this spring.

But that’s the rub. In a tight Western Conference, like the Clippers, the Nuggets must balance winning games and keeping their players fresh down the stretch. It’s never so simple. If they can successfully find that happy medium and cruise into a top-three West playoff seed, the rest of the NBA playoff field better watch out.