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2024 NBA MVP Ladder: Nikola Jokić has reached his final form and the rest of the league should be terrified

Welcome to BetFTW’s NBA MVP ladder for the 2023-2024 season. Down the stretch, we’ll track where the wind is blowing for the biggest individual regular-season award in the league every week. Without further ado, here’s our first tracker after the All-Star break. 

Winning an MVP is considered the most prestigious honor in the NBA for a good reason. Players to take home this award are the cream of the crop, the class of their league all around. The all-timers that we remember forever. That’s what makes the 2023-2024 NBA MVP race so exciting because there are a number of enticing candidates coming from various backgrounds and fresh new profiles.

In Cleveland, an electric guard has galvanized the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed. A powerful freight train wearing the No. 34 has yet to be derailed in Milwaukee. In Oklahoma City, we’ve got perhaps the smoothest scorer in years finding his groove. Don’t worry, I didn’t forget: There is also that seven-foot unicorn in Denver that we’ll get to soon enough.

Let’s dive into our first MVP ladder as the NBA prepares for its thrilling stretch run. Odds courtesy of DraftKings.

10
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (+30000)

AP Photo/Matt Krohn

Edwards is averaging career-highs in points, assists, and 3-point and free-throw percentage. He’s quietly become one of the best offensive engines in basketball and is one of the main reasons Minnesota is currently leading the Western Conference standings (along with the league’s top defense).

9
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers (+12000)

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The two-time Finals MVP had a stronger case just a few weeks ago when it looked like the Clippers’ lineup of ball-dominant players was unstoppable. Three blowout losses in their last five games at the hands of the Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Sacramento Kings kind of torpedoes the momentum Leonard was building.

That said, after years of contending with various injuries, Leonard looks much more like his old self this season, and that’s a very welcome sight.

8
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings (Off The Board)

Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

After starting the season just 23-18, Sabonis has keyed a recent Kings’ rally. Since late January, the Kings have won 10 of their last 15 games and have probably solidified themselves as a West playoff team. In that time, Sabonis has recorded a monster seven triple-doubles. The point center leads the league in that triple-double category with 20, which is rare air.

7
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns (+50000)

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

At the age of 35, Durant is far from the planet destroyer he once was with the Thunder and Golden State Warriors. Still, he remains one of the more efficient pure offensive players in basketball. His recent scoring rhythm, in particular, has helped Phoenix turn its season around on a dime. The Suns have lost just nine times in the 2024 calendar year.

It’s no coincidence that some metrics paint Durant as the seventh-most efficient NBA player this year.

6
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (+30000)

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Cavaliers’ rise has been one of the better stories in the NBA this season. None of it happens without Donovan Mitchell, perhaps the league’s finest sparkplug. Mitchell is fourth in scoring (just over 28 points a game), tied for second in steals (1.9 per), and is enjoying an absurd 59.4 true shooting percentage as a 6-foot-3 two-guard.

I don’t say this lightly: Mitchell has a good argument for being the best player in the Eastern Conference.

5
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+3000)

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

While I respect a recent push to make Tatum a more viable MVP candidate, a LOT would have to happen for him ever to have a chance at this award. It’s just not gonna happen. Draymond Green might be right that the goalposts of the MVP conversation have been moved for Tatum, but it’s still (and always will be) about individual brilliance in tandem with team success.

For one, I think every player ahead of Tatum in this year’s MVP race is simply better, more impactful, and more capable of carrying their respective teams through dire straits. Furthermore, per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics have an efficiency differential of just +2.4 when he’s on the court.

That’s good, not great, and it pales compared to Tatum’s better peers. It also says that the impeccably deep Celtics can still win many games, even when Tatum is off. That is much less the case with everyone ahead of him for MVP. Still, he’s probably the one true plug-and-play two-way wing in the NBA, and that should be celebrated.

4
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+1400)

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

On a night-to-night basis, no one works harder than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Sure, the former Finals MVP can jump out of the gym like no one else, but so much of Antetokounmpo’s performance is rooted in good old effort. And he almost always brings it. Antetokounmpo has been marvelous this season, keeping a bizarre Bucks team above water by averaging a near 30-point double-double.

What will likely keep Antetokounmpo from winning MVP honors for the third time is a step back in his individual defense. His .110 defensive win shares are a significant reduction from a .131 mark last season. The eye test says much of the same: While he’s still elite, Antetokounmpo can be abused more often on defense as the 29-year-old nears his 30s.

He’s a great player, but stellar defense (and effort) is supposed to be his calling card. That hurts his MVP case just enough.

3
Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks (+650)

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Dončić has been balling all season, but it wasn’t until a recent Mavericks’ seven-game winning streak that he entered the MVP conversation. Dončić’s meager on/off numbers suggest that Dallas is sometimes better without his services. But that would discredit how much of the offensive burden he carries on his shoulders. The man is averaging (AVERAGING) 34.3 points (which leads the league), 9.5 assists, and 8.8 rebounds per game. He is at the stage in his career where he’s so strong and gifted that he can create any shot he wants for himself or his teammates when push comes to shove.

Dončić is on the outside looking in compared to the two men above him. But if Dallas can mount a rally to a, say, top-four or top-five West playoff seed by the end of the year, it’ll be hard to deny him his first MVP.

2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+250)

Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

In some ways, the 2023-2024 season has been a coming-out party for Gilgeous-Alexander. We already understood he was a gifted scorer with a unique talent for creating space for himself. But with the Thunder’s ascent to championship contention, the first-time All-Star starter has shown he can be the fulcrum, a genuine No. 1 option on a great team.

And boy, is he so smooth while doing it.

Gilgeous-Alexander is second in the NBA in scoring (31.2 points), and he leads the league in steals. He has the capacity to struggle early and still take over a game when his team most needs it, like every upper-crust superstar. It’s no coincidence the Thunder have been jockeying for the top spot in the West all season, and it sure feels like we’re watching the rise of the next great shooting guard in the process.

1
Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (-160)

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

What else could reasonably be said about Jokić without sounding like a broken record?

The reigning Finals MVP controls a game like no one else. After years of showing off uncanny versatility, Jokić has finally hit the sweet spot where he understands exactly how much energy he has to exert on any given night and how to flip his “switch” on and off on a whim. Jokić only shows off his final playoff mode when he feels he absolutely needs it because it’s not worth overexerting himself in the marathon of an 82-game regular season plus an entire postseason. No one else has the ability to do that right now. Full stop.

Jokić’s stretch of nearly three consecutive 15-15-15 triple-doubles (!) right out of the All-Star break, including a historic masterpiece against the Warriors on the road, is a perfect example of him understanding when to put on the jets. And even then, his lower second and third gears are probably still better than his peers’ peaks.

Jokić is past the point of pushing and grinding for individual regular-season honors because he and the defending champion Nuggets are firmly in their title-winning window. Postseason accomplishments will always take precedence over regular-season notches in the belt.

Knowing that … I understand some people still like to say “arguably” regarding Jokić’s standing as the best player in the world. I, for one, think it’s ridiculous to continue adding that qualifier for this once-in-a-generation seven-footer. Since last spring, and really for most of the 2020s, Jokić has firmly cemented himself as the NBA’s unquestioned best player. It is not a debate. No one else in the current league is even in the conversation with him. That he’s reached a point where he can decide a game’s outcome as he pleases — “OK, I’ll win it now” — is a testament to his sheer brilliance. It is Jokić reaching his final form as the NBA’s lead alpha dog.

Only eight NBA players have ever won at least three career MVP awards. That illustrious list includes names like Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, LeBron James, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Needless to say, the Denver big man would be joining some very exclusive company if he could finish this year’s job. Which, for the record, provided Jokić continues his recent supernova play while the Nuggets stack wins together, it is his MVP trophy to lose.

Whether he’ll want it in the end is a different story. But he’ll probably get it anyway.

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