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9 winners and losers (Justin Fields’ evaporating trade market) from Day 1 of NFL free agency

The first day of 2024 NFL free agency — officially known as “legal tampering” (which doesn’t make sense, but whatever) — got off to a roaring start. It’s hard to know even where to begin.

In Atlanta, the Falcons finally have a quarterback who can maximize the promising roster they’ve built. In Green Bay, the Packers ushered in a new era by moving on from some long-time franchise cornerstones. Meanwhile, veteran running backs enjoyed quite a resurgence, showing that pro football teams still value their position.

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There’s a lot to unpack from a chaotic first day of free agency. Let’s dive into all of the biggest winners and losers.

1
Winner: The Falcons' Super Bowl hopes with Kirk Cousins

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) looks on from the bench during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons had promise entering last season. Between a loaded offensive supporting cast featuring three former top-10 picks (Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Drake London) and an underrated defense, Atlanta was reasonably expected to make some noise in the NFC. Then Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder happened, and the Falcons lumbered around to what probably should’ve been a more predictable 7-10 record. Such is life in the NFL when you don’t have quarterback play — even the most talented roster will likely fail to reach its potential.

Enter Kirk Cousins and another monster contract, inspiring some hilariously accurate memes.

While I think it would be a stretch to call him one of the faces of the NFL, there’s no denying Cousins can sling it with the best of them. He is going to give you 4,000-plus yards as a passer. He will throw around 35 touchdowns. He will take care of the ball, or at least the turnover issues won’t be as glaring as the many memes about him claim.

Cousins gives the Falcons a lifeboat. He rewards them with meaningful football that won’t feel so hopeless anymore. They now have a quarterback who actually belongs at this level of football and who can spread the wealth around their cornucopia of weapons. The floor of expectations for the Falcons with Cousins should be an NFC South division title and the NFC’s No. 3 seed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pushed for more and really challenged the NFC’s other heavyweights in pursuit of a Super Bowl championship.

2
Loser: Some of Aaron Rodgers' best friends (Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari)

Dan Powers-USA TODAY NETWORK

At their respective peaks, Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari were some of the finest players at their positions. Jones’ four-year run from 2019-2022 is one of the better stints of play from a multipurpose running back we’ve ever seen. Before an unfortunate 2020 knee injury derailed his momentum, Bakhtiari was on a Hall of Fame track as a brick wall pass protector.

But Father Time eventually catches up with all of us, and NFL players like Jones and Bakhtiari are no exception.

It was not shocking to see the Green Bay Packers move on both from Jones and Bakhtiari as they entered a new era building around Jordan Love in earnest. More than most American sports leagues, the NFL epitomizes the mantra of “what have you done for me lately.” Jones and Bakhtiari simply haven’t done much. It seems cruel, but it’s the nature of the business. You either stay on the field and perform, or you’re of little use to your team. This duo can likely only hope that Aaron Rodgers is waiting with a landing pad in New York.

Now that I think about it, given that they make a living by being in peak physical condition, NFL players probably help set the standard for what health decline looks like.

3
Winner: Running backs, who enjoyed a resurgent open market

Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs #28 warms up prior to playing the Denver Broncos during an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2020, in Las Vegas.

AP Photo/Jeff Bottari

Who said the running back position was vestigial and largely unimportant as a foundational piece in today’s NFL? Show yourself, cowards! (OK, it was everyone. That’s on us.)

Monday’s opening salvos of free agency felt like a seminal day for tailbacks. After struggling to find appropriate value with their old teams, it seemed like every big name found a happy new home and got paid. This came as a shock after seeing how franchises previously operated with their backfield bell-cows.

Josh Jacobs? The Packers gave him a cool four years for $48 million.

Saquon Barkley? Three years with $46.7 million from the Philadelphia Eagles.

Tony Pollard? He’s the heir apparent to Derrick Henry after signing a three-year, $24 million deal with the Tennessee Titans.

Shoot, even D’Andre Swift found security with the Chicago Bears after signing essentially the same deal as Pollard in Nashville.

These are not the numbers of a position that NFL general managers think is going the way of the Dodo bird. These contracts scream “vital franchise player.” The reports of the bog-standard running back’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

4
Loser: A quickly dwindling trade market for the Bears and Justin Fields

Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images

Whatever plan the Bears had to seamlessly transition from Justin Fields to a new quarterback was flipped on its head in the early stages of free agency.

First, the Pittsburgh Steelers opted for (probably washed-up) Russell Wilson to stay competitive under Mike Tomlin. Then, instead of bringing him home to his native Georgia, the Falcons ponied up for the superior Kirk Cousins instead. It was at this point that you might have thought the Las Vegas Raiders could be a potential suitor because of the Luke Getsy offensive coordinator connection. Nope! Gardner Minshew was their man!

While a Fields’ trade still feels likely and inevitable, the number of options and willing teams to go out on a limb for him all but caved in.

There is no healthy scenario for the presumed next Bears quarterback (Caleb Williams?) to start his NFL career with Justin Fields still working at Halas Hall. It’s not even debatable. It would probably be the worst-case scenario for both players, and the Bears almost certainly know it. But whatever hope Chicago had of putting the Fields era behind it in early free agency has gone by the wayside. It truly might take until the draft before we get a resolution.

Good. Great. Grand. Wonderful.

5
Winner: Mike Tomlin, who should get his Canton bronze bust right away if he can win with Russell Wilson

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Tomlin is going to strut into the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day. Whenever he finally steps down from coaching, he should probably start getting his gold jacket fitted right away.

For now, Tomlin is still content to drag the Pittsburgh Steelers’ husk to relevancy because he’s just that good of a coach. No one can argue with zero losing seasons in almost two decades with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Well, working with late-stage Russell Wilson might turn out to be his best work yet, his magnum opus. The man could truthfully probably coach out 10 wins with no quarterback on the field, and now he has someone with a genuine standard.

If Tomlin has to suck up a little and bear with Wilson’s occasional corniness, so be it:

With no due respect to Kenny Pickett, the Wilson of 2023 was demonstrably better than any of the Steelers’ quarterback options. That is a player who can shepherd a solid Steelers’ offensive nucleus to competency while T.J. Watt and Co. continue destroying planets on defense. I’m not sure how many wins that equals in an uber-competitive AFC, but it should be enough to stay above .500 and contend for a playoff spot again.

Give Tomlin a quarterback who can consistently throw the ball downfield, and you’ve given him the seeds to greatness. When (and I mean when) Tomlin takes the Wilson-led Steelers to a top-six AFC playoff seed, just give him his ticket to Canton, Ohio, immediately. Don’t wait.

6
Loser: The Vikings, whose window closed a bit without Kirk Cousins

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve appreciated parts of Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s approach to building his team through his two seasons on the job. He will still have his work cut out for him as Kirk Cousins moves onto what feels like greener pastures.

As it stands, Minnesota needs young talent on the edge and at defensive tackle, probably a new starting running back, and potentially two starters in the secondary. Oh, and yeah, Nick Mullens is now at the top of their quarterback depth chart. Woof.

If the Vikings are to become a consistent NFC power, Adofo-Mensah’s gonna have to do more than draft just one bona fide hit (Jordan Addison) in two years. And he’ll have to find his quarterback of the future without wasting the primes of Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Talk about threading the needle.

Good luck, pal. You’re gonna need it.

7
Winner: Chris Jones, who got paid like a superstar and still gets to chase Super Bowls

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, this happened a bit before the official start of free agency, but this tired NFL writer could not ignore the future of a top-five defender on a two-time reigning Super Bowl champion. Deal with

There was a lot of drama about Chris Jones’ contract stalemate with the Kansas City Chiefs. He even sat out a game on national television because the Chiefs didn’t want to reward their Defensive Player of the Year caliber talent with the security he had earned. But it seems championships (and the futures of other core players like L’Jarius Sneed) change minds.

Jones is now the highest-paid defensive tackle in professional football, eclipsing the legendary Aaron Donald. He will finish his career with the Chiefs, smack dab in the middle of Patrick Mahomes’ prime. What I’m trying to say is Jones got life-changing, generational money and will likely get to add at least another Super Bowl ring or two to his collection.

All of this is so well-deserved for one of the better people in the NFL. It’s great to see the Chiefs relent and make it happen.

8
Loser: Bills' fans hearts for 10 minutes after they thought Dion Dawkins was leaving

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Bills fans, you can rest assured: Your franchise left tackle was never going to leave Western New York in his prime.

As soon as the legal tampering period opened, Dion Dawkins took advantage of antsy fans’ emotions when he tweeted out a message that sure seemed like a goodbye to Buffalo. Naturally, as the Bills chase their first-ever Super Bowl with Josh Allen, fans did not take this well and wondered what had happened to sour the two parties’ relationship.

Of course, around 10 minutes later, it was revealed the three-time Pro Bowler in Dawkins had re-upped to stay competitive with the Bills. You’d forgive Buffalo fans for worrying about losing one of the most important players on their favorite team.

9
Winner: Interior offensive linemen, who watched their future market get reset

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re a rising guard or center, seeing the Carolina Panthers give $100 million ($63 million) to Robert Hunt had to be music to your ears. This isn’t a knock on Hunt’s abilities. He’s clearly one of the better interior offensive linemen in the sport. But for a guy with zero individual accolades to his name to get a 1/10th of $1 billion is mind-boggling. Throw in Landon Dickerson’s record-setting contract with the Philadelphia Eagles, and it was a banner day for the big boys up front. The guys in the middle of the offensive line almost never get that kind of cheddar. Never!

There are a lot of gifted young interior linemen who will be up for an extension over the next couple of years. I’m thinking of Chicago’s Teven Jenkins, Kansas City’s Trey Smith, and Dallas’ Tyler Smith. After Monday’s events, they will be asking for a blank check when their time to get paid comes up.

See live draft results and grades at the 2024 USA TODAY NFL Draft Hub.

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