The 2023 Open Championship tees off at Royal Liverpool Golf Course in Hoylake on Thursday morning, and thanks to the time change, wagers should be coming in at all hours of the day until the first group heads out to play.
The Open Championship: Live leaderboard, Schedule, Tee times
Fresh off his victory at the Scottish Open last week, Rory McIlory (+700) enters as the clear favorite to win his second Open Championship. But how often do those two event outcomes correlate?
Does it make sense to bet McIlory off a win or does that mean it’s time to fade his chances?
Here are some trends to keep in mind before placing your bets on The Open.
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The Scottish Open is (mostly) meaningless
Sure, there are a few examples in the last decade where winning the Scottish Open led to success at The Open Championship, but those seem more like exceptions than the rule here.
| Year | Scottish Open Winner | Open Championship Finish |
| 2022 | Xander Schauffele | T15 |
| 2021 | Min Woo Lee | Cut |
| 2019 | Bernd Wiesberger | T32 |
| 2018 | Branton Stone | T61 |
| 2017 | Rafa Cabrera-Bello | T4 |
| 2016 | Alex Noren | T46 |
| 2015 | Rickie Fowler | T30 |
| 2014 | Justin Rose | T23 |
| 2013 | Phil Mickelson | 1 |
| 2012 | Jeev Milkha Singh | T69 |
Phil Mickelson is the only golfer since 2013 who won both the Scottish Open and Open Championship in the same season. The Scottish Open was not held in 2020 due to the pandemic.
But playing well at the Scottish Open definitely matters
This shouldn’t be surprising, but it turns out golfers who won The Open typically performed quite well at the Scottish Open beforehand — when they entered the event, that is. Many recent British Open champs declined to play the Scottish Open.
Of the last six Open Championship winners who did play the Scottish Open the week before, four of them finished T14 or better.
| Year | The Open Winner | Scottish Open Finish |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | T10 |
| 2021 | Collin Morikawa | T71 |
| 2019 | Shane Lowry | DNP |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari | DNP |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | DNP |
| 2016 | Henrik Stetson | T13 |
| 2015 | Zach Johnson | DNP |
| 2014 | Rory McIlroy | T14 |
| 2013 | Phil Mickelson | 1 |
| 2012 | Ernie Els | T52 |
Look for golfers with outright odds in the +2000 range
History speaks for itself here.
| Year | The Open Winner | Outright Odds |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | +2800 |
| 2021 | Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
| 2019 | Shane Lowry | +6000 |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari | +2500 |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | +1200 |
| 2016 | Henrik Stetson | +2800 |
| 2015 | Zach Johnson | +8000 |
| 2014 | Rory McIlroy | +1400 |
| 2013 | Phil Mickelson | +1600 |
| 2012 | Ernie Els | +10000 |
Focus on the Top 33 in the OWGR
The last nine winners at The Open were ranked in the Top 33 of the Official World Golf Rankings at the time they captured the Claret Jug. The bad news here is that each of the players currently inside that group are all extremely capable of winning.
The good news is there are some big names outside of the Top 33 we can go ahead and cross out now, including Dustin Johnson (+3300), Bryson DeChambeau (+6000), Min Woo Lee (+7000), Hideki Matsuyama (+8000) and Adam Scott (+8000).
Experience matters at The Open
Eight of the last 10 winners at The Open previously finished in the Top 10 at the event during their career.
The players who rank in the OWGR’s Top 33 and finished in the Top 10 at The Open last year include McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young and Brian Harman.
