Each week this college football season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2023 Heisman Trophy race and break down the contenders. Check back every Tuesday as the best college football players in the country jockey for position with both oddsmakers and bettors. All odds via BetMGM. Past weeks here: Preseason, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11, Week 12.
Good for Jayden Daniels.
The LSU quarterback has battled through injuries all year while getting little help from his defense. The Tigers are out of the College Football Playoff race and have no shot at the conference title. Yet here’s Daniels, playing what looks like his best ball of the season and giving everyone a reason to tune into LSU games.
It’s no surprise to see Daniels at the top of the Heisman Trophy futures board after posting 785 yards, nine touchdowns passing and 330 yards, four touchdowns rushing over his last two games. And if you disagree, well, maybe read those numbers again.
Without a conference title game to help his resume, Daniels may not have enough juice to finish off an electric Heisman campaign, but we won’t be forgetting his 2023 season anytime soon.
With so few games left before ballots are due, the betting market has shifted heavily towards the top favorites — Jalen Milroe has the sixth-best odds on the board at +12500 — so we’re cutting our list here from the top 10 odds to the top five.
Here’s how the race is shaping up
5. Georgia QB Carson Beck (+3300)
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Odds Last Week: +3500
Technically, Beck is still in the Heisman race. Unofficially, he really has no shot. Unless Beck plays the way Jayden Daniels has the last few weeks against Georgia Tech, and then Alabama in the SEC title game, he won’t even be in the conversation when it’s time to vote.
Even if Beck does everything right he’ll need a lot of help from the people above him. We’re not ready to say it’s impossible for Beck to win. It’s just not realistic.
4. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (+3000)
Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY
Odds Last Week: +550
Despite the odds for Marvin Harrison Jr. taking a significant tumble after Week 12, he still has an outside shot here. Unlike Beck, Harrison’s numbers won’t provide an apples-to-apples comparison to the other quarterbacks on this list. Yet it’s obvious to anyone who watches him play that Harrison is as valuable to his team as any player with better odds right now.
Which means it should also be obvious how bad Minnesota’s defense is. Harrison caught three passes for 30 yards and a touchdown in Ohio State’s 37-3 victory on Saturday. It was the first time since Week 8 he scored fewer than two touchdowns.
A monster performance in a win at Michigan this week could be all that separates the wideout from a trip to New York.
3. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. (+600)
(Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
Odds Last Week: +375
Three weeks ago, Michael Penix Jr. was the Heisman favorite. Two weeks ago he dropped back to second place behind Bo Nix. This week he dropped another spot to third.
It doesn’t mean Penix is necessarily losing steam. A win this week against Washington State followed by a victory in the Pac-12 championship game probably locks up the trophy. Penix just hasn’t looked as sharp as he did over the first half of the season.
Then again, he’s scored three total touchdowns in each of his last three games. Just because he’s playing below his ceiling doesn’t mean his floor isn’t still incredibly high.
2. Oregon QB Bo Nix (+140)
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Last Week: -110
Last week’s favorite is this week’s runner-up.
It probably won’t stay that way for long and there’s really not much more value to be had by doubling down on Nix here. He’s needs to do the same thing as Penix: Win out, win the conference title and hope Marvin Harrison doesn’t go off for a million yards in the meantime.
Keep in mind, Nix is coming off a game against Arizona State in which he threw for 404 yards and six touchdowns. He’s not slouching by any means, either.
1. LSU QB Jayden Daniels (-130)
(Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Odds Last Week: +400
If not for a porous defense, Brian Kelly’s LSU team likely makes the playoff with Daniels at QB.
Entering Week 13, Daniels has passed for 3,577 yards and 36 touchdowns with just four interceptions while rushing for another 1,014 yards and 10 scores.
Enjoy him while you can.
