Each week this college football season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2023 Heisman Trophy race and break down the contenders. Check back every Tuesday as the best college football players in the country jockey for position with both oddsmakers and bettors. All odds via BetMGM. Past weeks here: Preseason, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7. Week 8.
If anyone would’ve said at the beginning of the year that Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy would be leading the Heisman Trophy race by Week 9, you’d assume that meant some of the top quarterbacks in the sport decided to redshirt.
That’s not a knock on where McCarthy is now or what he’s doing by any means. After all, he’s posted 1,799 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions with another three scores on the ground in just eight games. But with all the buzz around Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Sam Hartman heading into the year, McCarthy wasn’t really on anyone’s immediate radar.
The Wolverines quarterback opened at +1600 to win he Heisman with stiff competition ahead of him. Now the Illinois native is the odds-on favorite at +240 thanks to Michigan’s blowout at Michigan State and a poor performance from Penix in a close call against Arizona State.
And yet it still feels like there is plenty working against him. Start with Michigan’s opponents: No Heisman voter is going to be impressed by the 110th-strongest schedule in the FBS. Not when Michigan’s best win came at Minnesota, 52-10. That narrative will haunt McCarthy’s campaign. So too will Michigan’s alleged sign-stealing scandal. With the scope of the investigation still unclear, can Heisman voters fairly judge McCarthy’s play?
Will Heisman voters decide the narrative doesn’t matter this year? They famously gave the award to Cam Newton despite the NCAA’s non-stop probing of his eligibility in 2010. Of course, the NCAA also revoked Reggie Bush’s Heisman that year after determining he was ineligible at USC.
Simply put, the case for McCarthy goes well beyond what he can do on the field. And even then, he hasn’t beaten anyone on the field of note. That may change soon with a season-ending stretch against Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State. We’ll just have to see if it’s enough to make everyone forget about the rest of the year.
In the meantime, feel free to continue buying the dip on all the other contenders.
Let’s count down the top 10 favorites heading into Week 9.
10. Texas QB Quinn Ewers (+5400)
(AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Odds Last Week:
- +5000
Ewers slid a little bit after Texas survived a scare against Houston. The good news is he looked solid in that game, completing 24 of his 38 pass attempts for 349 yards and three touchdowns. The bad news is he injured his throwing shoulder and is considered week-to-week.
9. North Carolina QB Drake Maye (+5000)
AP Photo/Chris Seward
Odds Last Week:
- +1400
Unlike Ewers, Maye was not able to survive his team’s upset scare and instead imploded against a Virginia team that came into the matchup 1-5 on the year. While this is a significant drop in Maye’s Heisman odds, it was only UNC’s first loss on the year. In a weak ACC, there may be plenty of room for him to get back into the conversation.
8. Georgia QB Carson Beck
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Odds Last Week:
- No Change
Georgia had the week off after defeating Vanderbilt in Week 7. Up next is a tense matchup with Florida at Everbank Stadium in Jacksonville — Beck’s hometown. It should be a good one.
7. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (+1800)
(Photo by Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports – Pool/Getty Images)
Odds Last Week
- +8000
It’s not an exaggeration to say Marvin Harrison Jr. is the biggest reason why the Buckeyes are doing anything at all on offense. On a team with a stout defense and subpar quarterback, it’s been the wideout coming through every game with the type of catches that make you think he’s wearing velcro.
The junior is up to 766 yards on 42 receptions for six touchdowns this season, including one score and 100+ yards in each of his last three outings.
6. Oregon QB Bo Nix (+1600)
(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
Odds Last Week:
- +3000
Nix and the Ducks recovered from their three-point loss to Washington by blowing the doors off Washington State in a 38-24 victory. The quarterback passed for 293 yards with three total touchdowns and vault himself back into the Heisman race. Now he has to keep it going in Week 9 against a pesky Utah defense that just handed USC and Caleb Williams another loss.
5. Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel (+1200)
Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Last Week:
- +1000
Another surprisingly close game, another quarterback watching his odds slide. After Oklahoma had its hands full with UCF at home in Week 8, Gabriel has a bit more to prove in a hostile environment on the road Saturday against a very opportunistic Kansas team hungry for a statement win.
4. Florida State QB Jordan Travis (+900)
David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Last Week:
- +1300
Jordan Travis is for real, folks. So are Keon Coleman and the rest of Florida State, but for the purposes of the Heisman race there’s no question the FSU star is a legit threat. His dismantling of Duke in Week 8 was a primetime resume-building moment punctuated by 268 passing yards and three total touchdowns. Buy stock while you still can.
3. LSU QB Jayden Daniels (+325)
(AP Photo/Michael Woods)
Odds Last Week:
- +1300
The 2023 college season began with Florida State and LSU facing off. It may end with Travis and Jayden Daniels running it back at the Heisman ceremony in New York. Daniels has been one of the most impressive players this, doing it all with his legs and arm and willing LSU back into the playoff conversation. Even in a matchup against Army —where it looked like the Tigers weren’t trying to really open up the playbook — Daniels finished with 279 yards passing and four total touchdowns.
2. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. (+300)
(AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Odds Last Week:
- -145
We told you last week that Penix likely wouldn’t remain the clear favorite for long. We didn’t expect he’d fall out of that spot just days later after hosting Arizona State in Seattle. But even great, Heisman-winning quarterbacks put up clunkers — especially after winning a season-defining matchup with Oregon.
Penix played his worst game by far this year with a season-low 275 passing yards, two interceptions and no touchdowns. He’ll look to bounce back this weekend against Stanford.
1. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy (+240)
Odds Last Week:
- +1000
There’s not much more to say about McCarthy than what we covered already, but the fact that he’s not a runaway favorite the way Penix was a week ago is pretty telling about his chances.
Full Live Odds
(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
