With only three games remaining in the NFL season, which team has the best chance to Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta?

To determine each team’s chance of winning the Super Bowl, we crunched the numbers from the most recent playoff models from four major outlets – Football Outsiders, Five Thirty Eight, the NFL, and ESPN FPI . Each team is ranked in order of their average chance of winning Super Bowl LIII.

Five-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady raised eyebrows this week by saying the Patriots believe they’re the underdogs this season – and according to the projections, he’s right. The Patriots have an 18.9% chance of winning another championship – and they’re facing what should be a historically cold road game against a phenomenal offense on Sunday.