The Baltimore Ravens delivered the upset of the week with a convincing win over the previously undefeated Patriots, and New England’s Super Bowl chances took a significant hit as a result.
To determine which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs in 2019, we crunched the numbers from the most recent playoff models from three major outlets – ESPN FPI , Football Outsiders , and Five Thirty Eight . Each team is ranked in order of their average projected chance to qualify for the playoffs. We’ve also included each team’s Super Bowl chances, according to the models.
BIG WINNER FROM WEEK 9:
Texans: The Texans were the only AFC South team to win in Week 9, and the blowout victory over the Jags, combined with the Colts’ loss, raised the Texans’ playoff chances to 85.7%.
Seahawks: The Buccaneers pushed the Seahawks to overtime, but Seattle held on to remain within striking distance of the 49ers in the NFC West. A week 10 showdown against undefeated San Francisco is the must-watch game of the week.
BIG LOSER FROM WEEK 9:
Colts: The Colts’ have an easier path to a Wild Card berth than any NFC contender, but Indianapolis lost control of the division with its close loss to Pittsburgh.
Here are the current playoff and Super Bowl chances for all 32 NFL teams:
T-29. Dolphins (1-7)
Playoff percentage: 0.05%
Change: DOWN 0.02
Next game: at Colts
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
T-29. Bengals (0-8)
Playoff percentage: 0.05%
Change: DOWN 0.02
Next game: vs. Ravens
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports
T-29. Redskins (1-8)
Playoff percentage: 0.05%
Change: DOWN 0.02
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
T-29. Falcons (1-7)
Playoff percentage: 0.05%
Change: DOWN 0.02
Next game: at Falcons
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
T-27. Giants (2-7)
Playoff percentage: 0.1%
Change: DOWN 0.4%
Next game: at Jets
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
T-27. Jets (1-7)
Playoff percentage: 0.1%
Change: DOWN 1.6%
Next game: vs. Giants
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
26. Cardinals (3-5-1)
Playoff percentage: 0.2%
Change: DOWN 0.1%
Next game: at Buccaneers
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
25. Buccaneers (2-6)
Playoff percentage: 0.3%
Change: DOWN 1.0%
Next game: vs. Cardinals
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
24. Broncos (3-6)
Playoff percentage: 0.7%
Change: DOWN 1.0%
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
23. Bears (3-5)
Playoff percentage: 2.7%
Change: DOWN 2.9%
Next game: vs. Lions
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
22. Lions (3-4-1)
Playoff percentage: 5.4%
Change: DOWN 3.7%
Next game: at Bears
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
21. Titans (4-5)
Playoff percentage: 6.7%
Change: DOWN 7.9%
Next game: vs. Chiefs
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
20. Browns (2-6)
Playoff percentage: 8.2%
Change: DOWN 11.8%
Next game: vs. Bills
Super Bowl chances: 0.025%
© Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
19. Chargers (4-5)
Playoff percentage: 10.8%
Change: UP 4.0%
Next game: at Raiders
Super Bowl chances: 0.08%
© Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
18. Jaguars (4-5)
Playoff percentage: 16.8%
Change: DOWN 16.0%
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 0.18%
© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
17. Panthers (5-3)
Playoff percentage: 19.8%
Change: DOWN 0.3%
Next game: at Packers
Super Bowl chances: 0.23%
© Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
16. Raiders (4-4)
Playoff percentage: 26.9%
Change: UP 5.4%
Next game: vs. Chargers
Super Bowl chances: 0.23%
© Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
15. Steelers (4-4)
Playoff percentage: 36.6%
Change: UP 8.6%
Next game: vs. Rams
Super Bowl chances: 0.18%
© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
14. Rams (5-3)
Playoff percentage: 40.2%
Change: DOWN 2.4%
Next game: at Steelers
Super Bowl chances: 0.7%
© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
13. Eagles (5-4)
Playoff percentage: 49.1%
Change: UP 4.2%
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 0.7%
© Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
12. Colts (5-3)
Playoff percentage: 58.8%
Change: DOWN 11.8%
Next game: vs. Dolphins
Super Bowl chances: 1.3%
© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
11. Seahawks (7-2)
Playoff percentage: 59.0%
Change: UP 11.6%
Next game: at 49ers
Super Bowl chances: 1.1%
© Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
10. Bills (6-2)
Playoff percentage: 63.4%
Change: UP 5.9%
Next game: at Browns
Super Bowl chances: 0.13%
© Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
9. Cowboys (5-3)
Playoff percentage: 69.6%
Change: UP 4.6%
Next game: vs. Vikings
Super Bowl chances: 3.7%
© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
8. Vikings (6-3)
Playoff percentage: 70.6%
Change: DOWN 6.6%
Next game: at Cowboys
Super Bowl chances: 3.6%
© Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
7. Texans (6-3)
Playoff percentage: 85.7%
Change: UP 14.2%
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 5.0%
© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
6. Packers (7-2)
Playoff percentage: 87.8%
Change: DOWN 4.7%
Next game: vs. Panthers
Super Bowl chances: 4.6%
© Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
5. Chiefs (6-3)
Playoff percentage: 90.8%
Change: UP 2.5%
Next game: at Titans
Super Bowl chances: 12.6%
© Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
4. Ravens (6-2)
Playoff percentage: 94.2%
Change: UP 9.3%
Next game: at Bengals
Super Bowl chances: 6.4%
© Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
3. Saints (7-1)
Playoff percentage: 97.6%
Change: UP 0.6%
Next game: vs. Falcons
Super Bowl chances: 13.9%
© Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
2. 49ers (8-0)
Playoff percentage: 97.9%
Change: UP 1.6%
Next game: vs. Seahawks
Super Bowl chances: 18.8%
© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
1. Patriots (8-1)
Playoff percentage: 99.9%
Change: No change from last week
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 26.8%
© Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports