I loved what Andrew Luck and the Colts did this year. Luck exceeded expectations and then some coming back from his shoulder injury, and a defense that was supposed to be abysmal more than held its own. But on the road in Houston, where they eked out a 24-21 win in Week 14? I’m just not buying it. This will be a super-tight game either way (the Texans won 37-34 in overtime in Week 4) and I have faith Luck will throw a few touchdowns against the 28th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. Because of Houston’s stellar run defense, the Colts will become one-dimensional. Even though that one dimension is a good one, it won’t be enough. As for the over/under? That last game and the fact that this will be their third matchup of the season tells me this will stay in the low 20s for each team.

These teams played two tight matchups in the regular season, but over the course of those games, the Colts proved to be the better team. Indy’s offense, which is built to get the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands as quickly as possible, negates the Texans’ biggest strength: Their pass rush. On the other side of the ball, the Texans had a tough time blocking the Colts’ defensive line, which makes their zone coverages all the more effective. The Colts should win this one comfortably. I’ll say 24-16.

I took forever to decide which team I wanted to back: The Seahawks beat the Cowboys in Week 3, but that was in Seattle. Russell Wilson is better than Dak Prescott. I think Pete Carroll is a better coach than Jason Garrett. Both defenses are stout. So I’ll go with Seahawks by a hair, mostly based on my lack of faith in Dallas (also, why did Prescott play that last game?!). I envision some kind of 25-23 final score, so the over is the play here.

This looks like a low-scoring game to me. The Seahawks offense isn’t nearly as consistent on the road, and their defense matches up well with the Dallas offense. The Cowboys defense has been stout against the run all season, so if Seattle comes in trying to establish the run, it’ll have a hard time moving the ball. This game will come down to which offense can produce two or three splash plays, and I’ll take the Russell Wilson-led offense to get that done.

The Ravens’ defense and Lamar Jackson making his first playoff appearance make me think the under is a lock here. The pick is anything but a lock. The Ravens won on the road in Week 16, and now they get to host Los Angeles, a team that’s a dark horse to win the AFC after an impressive season. I foresee the Chargers battling through that tough Baltimore defense and do enough on offense to contain Jackson for a 19-17 win. I’d rather throw my money on Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen than the Ravens’ playmakers.

I’d say this being a rematch works in the Chargers’ favor. Defensively, Los Angeles will have a better idea of how Baltimore wants to attack it with Lamar Jackson’s mobility. The Chargers, in theory, should have a better idea of how to slow him down. On the other side, Philip Rivers will have had a practice run against Wink Martindale’s defense and should be more prepared to attack his coverages.

I promise you I’m taking Nick Foles seriously here. The Super Bowl run proved he’s no slouch, and even a lack of a running game hasn’t been a problem for the offense. That means the spread seems slightly too large given what we’ve seen the Eagles do last postseason and last month. Couple that with an Eagles defense that’s improved since midseason and I’ll take the points, knowing full well the Bears will ultimately prevail but not by much. In their last four games – all wins – the Bears have given up 42 points total while scoring no more than 24. With a low ceiling on offense and a high one of defense – plus playing at home -- the under is an easy choice.

I think we’ll see Nick Foles’ postseason magic run out against this vaunted Bears defense, which should be able to apply plenty of pressure on the pocket playing in front of a loud home crowd. Foles has struggled with his decision making and accuracy when under duress, and I expect to see more of the same against Khalil Mack and company. Matt Nagy should be able to exploit a vulnerable Eagles secondary. At least enough to get the win and cover this spread.