Welcome to the For The Win NBA playoff predictor.
To determine which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs in 2018, we crunched the numbers from the most recent playoff projections from three major outlets – ESPN’s BPI playoff odds , Basketball Reference , and FiveThirtyEight . Each team is ranked in order of their average chance to make the playoffs this season.
As the top 10 teams in the NBA are all virtual locks (>99%) to advance to the postseason, they have been ordered according their average NBA title chances, taken from the same models.
Since our first edition of the playoff predictor on January 17th, the Pelicans and Heat have made the biggest drops down the standings. With Anthony Davis out for weeks and his future in the air, New Orleans’ playoff chances fell by more than 30% to just 6.8% before the All-Star break. The Heat dropped from a 75% chance to make the playoffs to just 36.7%.
The Pistons have been the biggest winners over the last month, improving their playoff chances from 42% to 67%.
T-25. Cavs, Suns, Bulls, Knicks, Hawks, Grizzlies
Average chance to make the playoffs: <0.2%
© AP Photo/Tony Dejak
24. Mavs (26-30)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 4.4%
Change: DOWN .5%
Highest: 5.5% (BR)
Lowest: 3.8 (BPI)%
© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
23. Wolves (26-30)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 5.8%
Change: DOWN 10%
Highest: 12% (538)
Lowest: 2.3% (BR)
© Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
22. Pelicans (25-32)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 6.8%
Change: DOWN 31.2%
Highest: 10% (538)
Lowest: 4% (BR)
© Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
21. Wizards (24-33)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 15%
Change: DOWN 15.5%
Highest: 20% (538)
Lowest: 9.5% (BR)
© Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
20. Kings (30-26)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 17.5%
Change: UP 5.6%
Highest: 27.8% (BR)
Lowest: 11.7% (BPI)
© AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli
19. Lakers (28-28)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 20.3%
Change: DOWN 9.4%
Highest: 40% (538)
Lowest: 9.9% (BR)
© AP Photo/Chris Szagola
18. Magic (25-32)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 32.2%
Change: UP 14%
Highest: 42% (538)
Lowest: 24.7% (BPI)
© AP Photo/Aaron Gash
17. Heat (25-30)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 36.7%
Change: DOWN 38%
Highest: 45.7% (BPI)
Lowest: 26% (538)
© AP Photo/David Zalubowski
16. Clippers (31-27)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 64.9%
Change: UP 12%
Highest: 75.6% (BPI)
Lowest: 47% (538)
© AP Photo/Jim Mone
15. Hornets (27-29)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 66.3%
Change: UP 8.4%
Highest: 73.5% (BR)
Lowest: 60% (538)
© Andy Lyons/Getty Images
14. Pistons (26-29)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 67.2%
Change: UP 25.1%
Highest: 70% (538)
Lowest: 65.7% (BR)
© Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
13. Nets (29-29)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 82.6%
Change: UP 6.5%
Highest: 82% (538)
Lowest: 83% (BR)
© AP Photo/Mary Altaffer
12. Spurs (32-26)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 86.2%
Change: UP 7.7%
Highest: 92.7% (BPI)
Lowest: 80% (538)
© Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
11. Blazers (33-23)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 96.5%
Change: UP 13.4%
Highest: 97.5% (BPI)
Lowest: 95% (538)
© Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
10. Sixers (36-20)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 1.6%.
Highest title odds: 2% (538)
Lowest title odds: 1.3% (BPI)
© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
9. Rockets (33-23)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 1.7%
Highest title odds: 2% (538)
Lowest title odds: 1.5% (BR)
© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
8. Pacers (38-19)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 2.0%
Highest title odds: 3.2% (BR)
Lowest title odds: 0.5% (538)
© Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
7. Jazz (32-24)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 2.1%
Highest title odds: 3.1% (BR)
Lowest title odds: 0.5% (538)
© AP Photo/Kim Raff
6. Nuggets (38-18)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 3.5%
Highest title odds: 5.3% (BR)
Lowest title odds: 0.5% (538)
© Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports
5. Celtics (35-21)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 4.7%
Highest title odds: 6.3% (BPI)
Lowest title odds: 2% (538)
© David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
4. Thunder (37-19)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 6.5%
Highest title odds: 10% (538)
Lowest title odds: 4.1% (BPI)
© Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
3. Raptors (42-16)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 12.9%
Highest title odds: 17% (538)
Lowest title odds: 10.2% (BR)
© Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
2. Bucks (42-14)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 29.4%
Highest title odds: 39.4% (BR)
Lowest title odds: 14% (538)
© AP Photo/LM Otero
1. Warriors (40-15)
Average chance to make the playoffs: 99.8
Chance to win NBA title: 36.5%
Highest title odds: 58% (538)
Lowest title odds: 22% (BR)
© Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
