Prior to the 2023-24 NFL season, I asked eight Las Vegas oddsmakers to rank every quarterback in the NFL by their value against the spread and then followed it up by having another group of bookmakers rank the NFL’s most valuable position players ATS.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was tops among NFL position players (1.83 points ATS), while his star QB Patrick Mahomes led all signal-callers (7.56 points ATS), followed by Josh Allen (6.75) and Joe Burrow (6.75).
With the NBA season rapidly approaching, and so many more players relevant to the point spread, it seemed like another good opportunity to repeat this exercise. This time, I asked five oddsmakers from across the country to rank the NBA’s most important players ATS.
The prompt I gave was, “If a player wasn’t on the injury report and then was declared OUT for tonight’s game, how much would the line move?”
I gave oddsmakers a list of 69 players and asked them to rank the point-spread value of each one. I then averaged the five values together to get to a final number for every player.
The answers are nuanced, but rely on a variety of factors for oddsmakers, including:
- Strength of the backup at the position
- Relative strength of rest of the team (how many stars do they have?)
- Opponent
- Regular season vs. playoffs
- What new rotations may look like
- Strength of coach
As one oddsmaker explained, the spread isn’t the only form of odds impacted by an important player being out. A defensive-minded big man, for example, could be worth far more to the total than to the point spread.
Not surprisingly, the two-time MVP and current NBA champion Nikola Jokic was No. 1, worth 5.15 points ATS — the only player worth over 5 points ATS in the NBA.
Here are the full rankings:
The Big Five
(Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)
Talking to oddsmakers throughout this exercise, it was clear that five players stood on their own tier above the rest of the league:
- Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (5.15 points ATS)
- Joel Embiid, 76ers (4.52)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (4.38)
- Luka Doncic, Mavericks (4.36)
- Steph Curry, Warriors (4.09)
Every oddsmaker had Jokic as the most valuable player against the spread in the NBA, while some had Embiid over Giannis and others had Giannis over Embiid.
“Going off of my experience, for years Giannis was the most valuable ATS, just because he always had the ball in his hands,” one oddsmaker noted. “That’s the same with Jokic now, but to a greater extent. And the Giannis shifts were always at least 6 points. Jokic is off the charts on value above replacement, win shares, etc. … you can just watch a game as a casual fan and see how important he is.”
Other oddsmakers agreed, especially since Denver’s overall team doesn’t have any upper echelon superstars.
“You see what he means for that team,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at SuperBook Sports said. “You have to consider the players around him as well. He has a good supporting cast, but no other superstars. Jamal Murray is good, but inconsistent.”
Jokic was No. 1 in Player Efficiency Rating last season and finished No. 2 (behind Giannis) in ESPN’s NBArank 2023.
“Jokic is by far the best and most versatile player in the league,” Brad Bryant, GM of the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook said. “Not only are the numbers dazzling, but he is unquestionably the leader of [that] team, and they go as far as he can take them.”
Another oddsmaker had Luka as his No. 2 most valuable player, right behind Jokic.
The battle for second place between Giannis and Embiid was close as well, with defensive ability the slight deciding factor for one oddsmaker.
“We feel as if Giannis provides Milwaukee with more value on both ends of the floor,” Evan Gould, a trader at PointsBet noted, “and Giannis’ slight advantage in defensive rating gives him the edge.”
Elite Players
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
I defined this category as players worth more than 3 points against the spread:
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (3.67)
7. Kevin Durant, Suns (3.48)
8. Jayson Tatum, Celtics (3.31)
9. LeBron James, Lakers (3.25)
10. Anthony Davis, Lakers (3.19)
11. Damian Lillard, Bucks (3.14)
12. Jimmy Butler, Heat (3.11)
13. Ja Morant, Grizzlies (3.08)
14. Devin Booker, Suns (3.07)
It might be surprising to casual fans how high Gilgeous-Alexander is on this list, but he has the respect of oddsmakers, who believe that he’s the engine making a potent young Thunder team go.
“I think he’s primed to be a real star in this league and he’s going to take a big step forward this year, along with the Thunder,” Casey Minnich, NBA trader at Circa Sports told me. “He looked great in FIBA as well. They’re still a pretty good team without him, with Chet Holmgren back, but their biggest problem is they are in the West. We’re getting a lot of bets on the season win total OVER.”
LeBron James and Damian Lillard were two other interesting names in this group — LeBron because it’s incredible that he’s one of the 10 most valuable players ATS in his 21st season, and Lillard because of the trade to the Bucks.
“To me, it seems like a little too [high a ranking] for LeBron at this point,” Sherman noted. “Anthony Davis’ contribution will mean more [to the spread] with how they’re built. I would put that at 2.5 points, tops. The market might react differently, but I don’t think he’s as impactful on that team right now. The Lakers are one of the deeper teams in the NBA.”
The market also is a bigger factor with a public team like the Lakers, as Station Casinos sportsbook director Chuck Esposito noted.
“LeBron is either the GOAT or second GOAT depending on who you ask,” Esposito told me. “He’s arguably the most popular player on the most public team in the league. There’s a definite bias towards the Lakers in Vegas, even though the Lakers aren’t a Vegas-based team.”
Other oddsmakers noted LeBron’s on-court intelligence as a factor for his point-spread value, even if his on-court skills are declining.
“He’s definitely one of the smartest players in the league,” Minnich told me. “His in-game IQ, the way he gets the benefit of the doubt on some calls that others wouldn’t, he’s definitely always going to get that respect. I do think Davis will overtake him as the most valuable Lakers player to the spread, if Davis is in the MVP conversation. Davis has to take a big step forward this year if the Lakers want to be a championship contender.”
Oddsmakers valued Lillard slightly lower than when he was on the Blazers because of the Bucks’ collective star power.
“Lillard’s ATS ranking shrunk a bit after the trade to Milwaukee,” Gould, the PointsBet trader, told me in an email. “His usage rate is likely to decline playing next to Giannis and thus his impact isn’t estimated to be quite as big as it was.”
Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards just missed this tier with a ranking of 2.88 points ATS, but was the player most consistently mentioned as getting into the Top 10 of these rankings in the near future.
“Edwards has taken over as the Timberwolves’ franchise player and only continues to get better every day,” Bryant said in an email. “His ascension started during this summer’s FIBA games for Team USA and should continue once the regular season kicks off.”
The Big Three Rookies
(Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports)
T-25. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs (2.46)
57. Scoot Henderson, Blazers (1.35)
63. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (1.23)
Wembanyama is one of the most exciting rookies ever to come into the NBA, and bookmakers are very curious to see him in regular season games. For now, though, he looks like he’s ready to live up to the hype. One oddsmaker even told me he raised Wembanyama a full point ATS after seeing his performance in two preseason games so far.
“What I failed to realize is how important he’s going to be on the defensive side,” Winnich, the Circa Sports NBA trader, told me this week. “He’s in a really good place in San Antonio with Gregg Popovich where he can really learn the game and I don’t think they’re going to put too much on his shoulders. I’m probably two points too low. It’s going to be a real feeling out process with him. By midseason, I might be four points too low.”
Other oddsmakers were optimistic on Wembanyama as well, with one saying his trading team already had Wembanyama rated as one of the best defenders in the NBA.
“I think he can be worth even more than that, more like 3 points ATS,” Sherman said. “He’s going to have a large impact because the team is building around him.”
In terms of Holmgren and Henderson, oddsmakers had higher hopes for Holmgren based on team composition, but his ATS value was suppressed as a result.
“If you’re looking ahead, Holmgren is one guy to watch,” Sherman told me. “He’s going to be the running mate with Shai and with consistent point and rebound production, he’s going to be very impactful. Over the course of this season, he could have a large ascent in what he means to the spread. You could see him enter the 2.5-point range quickly.”
Oddsmakers were quick to point out that especially with rookies, their ATS value could shift dramatically after a month or two during the season.
Full Rankings
