(Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

1. Patrick Mahomes (7.56 points ATS)

T-2. Josh Allen (6.75)

T-2. Joe Burrow (6.75)

4. Justin Herbert (6.69)

5. Aaron Rodgers (5.75)

It’s no surprise that Mahomes, now a two-time Super Bowl champion, is atop this list. There isn’t much he can’t do on a football field, and Kansas City’s current backup QB is Blaine Gabbert. Regardless of backup QB, oddsmakers agreed that Mahomes was the most valuable player to the point spread in the NFL this season.

“If he’s healthy, he’s the worth more than any other QB by at least a point,” one oddsmaker said. “You can look at the MVP odds and how much he matters. It’s a no-brainer to have him No. 1. There’s no other QB like him with his style of play and talent.”

“Kansas City has a solid team,” another oddsmaker said. “But Mahomes is the top QB. The guy is phenomenal and has the stats and rings to prove it.”

(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

6. Lamar Jackson (5.19)

7. Deshaun Watson (5.00)

T-8. Justin Fields (4.94)

T-8. Jalen Hurts (4.94)

T-8. Matthew Stafford (4.94)

11. Trevor Lawrence (4.56)

12. Kirk Cousins (4.50)

13. Dak Prescott (4.19)

14. Russell Wilson (4.00)

There is a lot to break down in this tier, but Fields, Hurts and Wilson really stand out for different reasons.

For Fields, a lot of his ranking has to do with the fact that D-II QB Tyson Bagent is now his backup, as opposed to PJ Walker (or as one oddsmaker said when I followed up for a new ranking once Walker was released, “Who!?”)

Fields had a range of rankings from 8 points ATS from one oddsmaker, all the way down to 2.5.

“I basically need to see more,” an oddsmaker told me when describing where he had Fields ranked. “I’m not super high on him coming into this season. I’m hoping to see some good things as a pocket passer. Right now I have him rated just above Jordan Love and Desmond Ridder, to be honest.”

Another oddsmaker was higher on Fields, noting the public’s support of the Bears this offseason.

“Look at the way people are jumping on the Bears,” he said. “I think a lot of people are thinking Fields can make a Hurts-like jump this year. Those guys that are dual threats bring a lot to the table as far as their value to the team.”

Perhaps the most polarizing QB among bookmakers was how to properly rate Hurts. The Philadelphia star was a fascinating case study, as two bookmakers — both fans of the Eagles — had wildly differing takes on the QB. One had him rated as 2.5 points more valuable than backup Marcus Mariota; the other had Hurts a full TD better.

From one: “I only have 2.5 on Hurts because Mariota is competent. The team is so solid, it’s not like he has to go in there and do a lot.”

From the other: “I’m an Eagles fan and I’m not sold on Mariota. Mariota has been around, but Hurts is dynamic, he can do it both running and passing. Some people think he may have to prove it a few more years, but from what I saw last year it’s hard to argue he isn’t as valuable as those guys. Hurts easily could’ve been the MVP last season.”

A third bookmaker had a rating of 3.5 points for Hurts, saying, “Mariota is one of the better backups in the league and there’s some recency bias with Hurts. Is he going to do that again? If the Eagles open -10 at home with Hurts and he’s hurt, it’s not re-opened back at -4. That’s ridiculous.”

And finally with Russell Wilson, it’s a question of whether last season was a one-year aberration due to a new environment combined with poor coaching. Or was it the first steps in a steep decline for the formerly elite QB?

Oddsmakers had a variety of opinions on him as well.

“I’ve gone back and forth a lot on Wilson, especially this offseason,” an oddsmaker noted. “I definitely downgraded him based on his performance last year, but I’ve erred on the side of being conservative and how much was due to Hackett vs. Wilson. I still think we may see some good things out of him with Sean Payton. I’m not super high on Jarrett Stidham as well.”

“I think Wilson is going to be one of the stories of the year,” a different oddsmaker believed. “We’ll see pretty early if last year was an aberration, as what we saw last year was pretty rough. The Broncos had the hype last year and it didn’t work out … [it was] a disaster from the get-go. Upgrade in the coaching department with Payton.”

(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY)

15. Tua Tagovailoa (3.56)

16. Jimmy Garoppolo (3.50)

T-17. Ryan Tannehill (3.44)

T-17. Geno Smith (3.44)

19. Jared Goff (2.88)

20. Daniel Jones (2.75)

21. Jordan Love (2.50)

22. Mac Jones (2.13)

23. Brock Purdy (2.06)

24. Derek Carr (1.94)

25. Kenny Pickett (1.88)

26. Baker Mayfield (1.75)

27. Desmond Ridder (0.13)

One of the more interesting QBs in this tier is Geno Smith, whom one oddsmaker was convinced is being overrated.

“I see the Seahawks every week and I don’t think he’s as good as people are saying,” he told me the regression is going to come for him. I think it was a fluky year to be honest. He does have great wide receivers, but I don’t think he’s worth [a FG]. Give Drew Lock those weapons and he’d do just fine.”

Another oddsmaker reiterated that the team’s style of play on offense can have a big impact on the spread difference between starter and backup QB, citing Ryan Tannehill as an example.

“Tannehill isn’t going to be the guy to put up major numbers,” he told me over the phone. “That’s why my ratings are a little lower on him. That’s the perception of Tannehill and the philosophy of the [Titans]. A run-first, defense-oriented team lessens the impact of the QB.”

(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

28. Bryce Young (1.13)

29. C.J. Stroud (0.25)

30. Sam Howell (-0.29)

31. Anthony Richardson (-0.56)

Young was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason, and also has a backup (Andy Dalton) with the longest NFL track record.

Still, most oddsmakers rated rookies as worth zero points against the spread, and noted they would be quick to adjust as the season progresses.

“What I try to do out of fairness to the rookies is rate them as zero until I see more of a sample size,” an oddsmaker told me.

“I don’t mind [rookie QBs] being thrown into the fire, let’s see what they’ve got,” another oddsmaker opined. “If the team has another guy they trust, they wouldn’t have drafted the rookie. Preseason is one thing, regular season is another. I’d probably give it at least 2-3 weeks before making drastic changes to my ratings.”

“I’m way higher on Stroud than Young,” a third oddsmaker said. “I was impressed with him at Ohio State. He’s super athletic, and has a cannon of an arm. I would’ve taken him No. 1 overall. I think the ceiling is quite high for him.”

There are also some cases where oddsmakers believe a veteran QB would provide a better chance of winning immediately, like in Indianapolis.

“If Gardner Minshew was starting, I’d have them a point and a half better,” one oddsmaker noted.

(Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

The Cardinals seem to know that they have not one, but two opportunities (due to owning the Houston Texans’ first-round pick in 2024) to draft their QB of the future in this coming NFL draft — and they’re not taking any chances.

Otherwise, it’s tough to explain how a team trying to win just cut its current starting QB (Colt McCoy), as injured starter Kyler Murray was placed on the PUP list to begin the season.

Oddsmakers had Murray as about 3.5 points more valuable to the spread than McCoy, but McCoy looks like a Pro Bowler compared to Arizona’s current starting QB candidates: the recently-signed Josh Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune.

The Cardinals are the only NFL team to be underdogs in every game this season — and that likely won’t change with their roster and Dobbs or Tune under center.

If it’s Dobbs, the difference ATS will be a breathtaking -4.5 points compared to Murray.