Victor Wembanyama is the consensus favorite to win 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year. He has been from the moment odds opened for the award.

A glance around different sportsbooks, and there’s not much room for discussion on the topic. At DraftKings and Caesars, Wembanyama sits at -225, with everyone else at +350 or longer. No other player is shorter than +400 at BetMGM or FanDuel.

This is what tends to happen when you have a generational talent who’s been a lock to be drafted No. 1 overall from the moment he entered the general consciousness of NBA fandom.

And yet, those odds shouldn’t be taken as a guarantee he’ll actually win the award.

While Wembanyama should absolutely be the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year, there are three main reasons why you may want to sprinkle some money elsewhere. And the first is the most obvious reason but also the one you most likely forgot about.

Chet Holmgren is still a rookie

That’s right, the No. 2 overall pick of last year’s draft, Chet Holmgren missed what was supposed to be his rookie season after injuring his foot.

Before that, Holmgren was expected to contend with Paolo Banchero for 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year. He was even favored at some sportsbooks after an impressive Summer League debut.

Now, Holmgren’s odds are third-best behind Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, but he has the one advantage of having already been through the process of getting acclimated to an NBA team and training with that team for a full season.

Also, that team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, are good now! Holmgren may be contributing on a playoff contender next year. Wembanyama, in all likelihood, won’t be doing much winning with the San Antonio Spurs.

Not to mention, we’ve seen delayed debuts pay dividends for players in the past like Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin, who both won their Rookie of the Year awards after missing a season. Of course, they didn’t have to contend with someone like Wembanyama, so maybe that becomes a moot point in Holmgren’s chances.

Questions about Wembanyama’s frame

OK, so maybe Holmgren doesn’t outplay Wembanyama. But hopefully he’s not a foreshadowing of what’s to come for the 7-foot-3 phenom either.

Before Wembanyama came along, Holmgren’s long and slender frame was the fascination of basketball fans wondering how his body would hold up in the NBA. He didn’t even make it into an official game before those questions were answered.

It didn’t. At least not yet.

Wembanyama is even taller and quicker on his feet than Holmgren, so how will he hold up? All we can do now is hope he has a long and healthy career, but the questions will persist until we see it. Any potential injury leaves the door wide open for another player to swoop in for Rookie of the Year.

Scoot Henderson is also really good

Wembanyama said it himself. If he wasn’t in this draft, Henderson would be the No. 1 overall pick. Of course, that sounds silly now knowing Henderson might not even be the No. 2 pick. But that has more to do with the team picking second than Henderson’s abilities.

Scoot Henderson is the real deal as far as I can tell, and if he ends up in a situation where he can play freely with minimal expectations of winning right away, he could put up some big numbers.

It’s not beyond belief that another player like Henderson could push a generational talent like Wembanyama. The last prospect to enter the NBA with this much hype was LeBron James, and even he had tight competition from Carmelo Anthony for the 2004 Rookie of the Year award.