In the last month since the 2023 NBA Draft lottery, the odds for the No. 2 overall pick have been all over the place, changing leads several times between favoring Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller.
Henderson, who is widely viewed as the second-best prospect in the draft behind Victor Wembanyama, opened as the favorite. But Miller, who is seen as a better fit for the Charlotte Hornets, soon passed him and has held steady as the favorite for several weeks. That’s until an apparent run on Henderson’s odds last week catapulted him back into the lead.
On Tuesday, a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski might have finally settled things Tuesday. Miller “solidified his standing as Charlotte’s choice,” Woj said on SportsCenter, sending Miller’s odds back into the lead by a lot. He went from +170 to -400 at DraftKings.
There’s also a chance the report muddled things even more.
The Hornets are preparing to select Brandon Miller at No. 2 overall, per @wojespn:
– Miller impressed Michael Jordan and Co. during his second private workout yesterday.
– Charlotte prefers Miller’s fit alongside LaMelo Ball over Scoot Henderson. pic.twitter.com/P3dsnpCl2P
— Evan Sidery (@esidery) June 21, 2023
Wojnarowski is one of the most trusted insiders in sports, but the draft is a different beast. It’s tripped him up once before, and it can absolutely happen again.
On the day of last year’s draft, Wojnarowski said it was “increasingly firm” that the order of the 2022 picks would be Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero. Of course, the order ended up being Banchero, Holmgren, Smith.
However, the reason to be skeptical about Woj’s report this year isn’t just about him being wrong that one time. It’s also because the odds were right — the sharp action told us what was going to happen, and we ignored it.
In the hours before Wojnarowski’s report in 2022, Banchero’s odds had moved from +440 to -210, all the way down from opening odds longer than 20-1. After the report, they dipped back to +1000 before settling at +195 behind the favored Smith. Anyone who had just ignored Woj’s report had an opportunity to make bank.
That’s the exact scenario today. Henderson’s odds had moved from +170 a week ago to -260 at FanDuel before Woj’s report sent them back down to a distant +230. Now, there’s tremendous value there for anyone brave enough to go against one of the best reporters in the game. Last year, I’d have advised against that. Not this year.
Miller might be Hornets’ pick. But until commissioner Adam Silver calls his name, I think Henderson is still very much in play at No. 2.
