Jamal Murray has undoubtedly been one of the biggest catalysts for the Denver Nuggets’ first-ever run to the NBA Finals. In his first postseason since a devastating knee injury, Murray has been lights out, averaging 27 points, over six assists, and five rebounds a game while shooting nearly 40 percent from behind the arc. In some ways, you might even count these playoffs as Murray’s official coming-out party.
But in Game 2 of this championship battle, the Miami Heat made an important adjustment en route to tying up the series — they put the long Jimmy Butler on Murray on defense. And the plan worked to perfection.
With Butler as his defender for most of the night, Murray put up just 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting. Before a late-game, last-two-minute burst that led to a potential game-tying three for Murray (where Butler was, yes, the defender), Murray had just 10 points. He was a non-factor for someone who’s supposed to be Nikola Jokic’s great running mate, leaving his superstar big man on a scoring island — something that might have played right into the Heat’s plans.
If the Nuggets are to take back control of this NBA Finals and capture the first championship in franchise history, this kind of output from Murray simply can’t continue. He must figure out Butler’s defense as a scorer — the Heat will likely keep Butler on the Denver point guard for now — or the Nuggets will prove to be far too reliant on Jokic doing everything offensively. And that’s just not sustainable.
That seems to be the baseline betting expectation for Murray heading into Wednesday evening’s Game 3 in Miami. Oddsmakers with Fanduel Sportsbook have an over/under of 25.5 points on Murray’s scoring production. From an initial glance, without shooting statistics, such play would be far more in line with the guard who helped lift Denver to its first Western Conference title.
I’m not sure how Denver plans to combat Butler on Murray outside of hoping their guard simply shoots better in the individual matchup. Do they try to get Butler to switch more? Does a game plan centered around the currently cold Michael Porter Jr. draw Butler’s attention? Knowing Murray’s propensity to rise to the occasion — he was arguably the Nuggets’ top player during the West Finals — I think a belief that he’ll just shoot better is the best strategic thought process.
Murray might still be more underrated in the current NBA pantheon, but he’s undoubtedly capable of bouncing back off the mat and playing like a star when his team needs him. Even if an elite wing like Butler defends him, he’s too talented to keep down for long on this big of a stage.
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