Nikola Jokic is the best NBA player in the world right now, but the Denver Nuggets might be better off when he isn’t taking matters into his own hands. Even if Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra strongly disagrees with such an assessment.
On Sunday night, as the Nuggets fell 111-108 to a Miami Heat comeback in Game 2 of the NBA Finals, Jokic tried to put his team on his back scoring-wise. As other Denver players like Jamal Murray proved to be inconsistent on offense, the superstar forward recorded his third 40-plus-point game of the postseason.
At times, regardless of what the Heat threw in Jokic’s direction, he seemed unstoppable. And yet, the Nuggets lost anyway. In fact, in what might be one of the more shocking stats from this postseason, Denver has yet to win a game this spring when Jokic drops at least a 40-burger.
The Nuggets are 0-3 this postseason when Nikola Jokic scores 40+ points (finished with 41 points in Game 2). They are 13-1 when he scores fewer than 40.
Those three losses in 40-point games are tied for the most by any player in a postseason in NBA history. pic.twitter.com/ug5NEYFM1v
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 5, 2023
There’s a lot to unpack here.
For one, Jokic scoring more in and of itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Nuggets. If he has the individual matchup, the league’s top big man probably should take repeated advantage. It doesn’t make much sense for Jokic to ignore a mismatch based on some preconceived strategy that isn’t working.
That said, the Nuggets are undoubtedly at their best when Jokic is more of a facilitator than the primary scoring engine. The two-time MVP is arguably one of the greatest passers of all time and can sometimes seemingly create open looks for his teammates out of thin air. It’s no coincidence that while Jokic scored 41 points in Game 2, he only recorded four assists, and the Denver offense looked discombobulated for much of the evening.
If Jokic is shouldering more of the scoring load, then that could mean:
- Other Denver players like Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have probably gone cold, and Jokic has to score to keep the Nuggets above water. And or …
- The opposing team is working to specifically take away Jokic’s passing lanes so he can’t be an orchestrating distributor.
Either way, there appears to be something to the idea of Jokic turning the afterburners on the scoring engine and the Nuggets not seeing much success this postseason. It’s a tidbit to monitor for the rest of these NBA Finals, starting Wednesday night in Miami.
For example, right now, oddsmakers with BetMGM have set Jokic’s over/under for points scored in Game 3 at 28.5. By that same token, they have Jokic’s over/under on total points and assists set at 38.5.
Those are the kinds of numbers the Nuggets need from Jokic to win their first NBA title — where he’s still their (likely) leading scorer but is more of a floor general in line for a triple-double built on uber-talented scoring, rebounding, and passing.
Anything less, or should I say, anything more from Jokic at the rim, and the Nuggets start to look a lot more vulnerable.
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