It’s the end of February, which means the women’s college basketball season is winding down and some of us are starting to get a bit obsessed with bracketology.
We know that South Carolina is the undisputed No. 1 seed, and we know the Pac-12 is in-line to have the most teams hosting games during the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, and we know Gonzaga is making a strong case to crack that top 16 threshold too.
But what about the teams on the bubble? Will the ACC get a ninth team in the field? Will Maryland’s streak of consecutive NCAA tournament appearances continue? We will we see a two-bid Ivy League?
Let’s take a closer look at a few teams on the bubble, and what they can do to get off it.
Mighty Maryland?
Feb 18, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Faith Masonius (13) brings the ball uo the court during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
- NET: 32nd
- HerHoopStats Rating: 27th
- ESPN projection: 11-seed (last four in)
Brenda Frese’s team hasn’t missed the tournament since 2010 and has appeared in four Elite Eights since then, including last season.
But Maryland’s had a tough season this year following the losses of Diamond Miller and Abby Meyers. The Terps have dealt with various injuries and just lost guard Lavendar Briggs for the rest of the season. They endured a stretch between Jan. 9 and Feb. 3 where they lost six of eight games.
Maryland has added four wins to its total since then, but then fell this past weekend to No. 2 Ohio State. Simply put: The Terps can’t afford to pile up many more L’s. They’ll need to beat Wisconsin this week and win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament to solidify their tournament resume.
And an upset victory at Indiana on March 3 would go a long way in clinching a tournament spot for Shyanne Sellers and co.
Two-bid Ivy?
Columbia junior guard Abbey Hsu (35) looks for a pass over Kansas senior guard Holly Kersgieter (13) in the first quarter of the WNIT championship game inside Allen Fieldhouse on April 1, 2023. (Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)
First, a glance at Princeton…
- NET: 29th
- HerHoopStats Rating: 31st
- ESPN projection: 10-seed (last four byes)
And now, Columbia…
- NET: 60th
- HerHoopStats Rating: 45th
- ESPN projection: 12-seed (automatic qualifier)
The last — and only — time we’ve seen a two-bid Ivy League in women’s college basketball was in 2016, when a Courtney Banghart-coached Princeton team assembled a great resume while Penn won the league. There’s a chance a similar scenario could happen this season.
ESPN and the Athletic both project Princeton to make the field comfortably, but Kaitlyn Chen and the Tigers just suffered a loss to Abbey Hsu and the Columbia Lions. Coached by Megan Griffith — who was an assistant coach on that 2016 Princeton team under Banghart — Columbia is a good team, but they probably need to win Ivy Madness to crack the NCAA tournament field. A year ago, the Lions were among the last four cuts from the field of 68 (you know this as the first four out) and went on to play in the WNIT title game.
It feels like the best chance for a two-bid Ivy is for Princeton to finish the regular season 3-0, make the Ivy Madness title game, and lose to Columbia in it.
How about the A-10?
URi forward Hawa Komara going to the hoop against Laura Ziegler of the Hawks in the first half. ( Kris Craig / USA TODAY NETWORK)
The Atlantic 10 Conference is in sort-of a similar spot as the Ivy League. Let’s look at the resumes for Richmond and St. Joseph’s.
Richmond…
- NET: 54th
- HerHoopStats Rating: 41st
- ESPN projection: 12-seed (automatic qualifier)
St. Joseph’s…
- NET: 55th
- HerHoopStats Rating: 48th
- ESPN projection: 73rd overall team (next four out)
The A-10 gets multiple bids into the women’s tournament more often than the Ivy, last doing so in 2022, but this might not be the year for the league. St. Joe’s resume took a hit with an 11-point loss at VCU on Feb. 21, and Richmond’s resume lacks a signature win. Plus, the Spiders just lost on the road in overtime to the third contender in this league, George Mason. It feels like the two teams that don’t win this conference will be left on the wrong side of the bubble.
Can Arizona make a run?
TUCSON, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 26: Head coach Adia Barnes of the Arizona Wildcats instructs her team during the game against the USC Trojans at McKale Center on February 26, 2022 in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
- NET: 33rd
- HerHoopStats Rating: 44th
- ESPN projection: 72nd overall team (first four out)
On the west coast, Washington State and Arizona are trying to join the other Pac-12 teams in the field.
It’s been an incredibly strange season for Arizona. The Wildcats started the year 8-3, then lost to Gonzaga and narrowly to Colorado, then beat Utah in overtime before enduring a four-game losing streak. Like TCU, Arizona had to hold mid-season tryouts for walk-ons in early February. Adia Barnes’ team is now riding a four-game win streak that includes a triple-overtime win over Washington and an upset of Stanford. But just three days after beating the Cardinal, Barnes announced that leading scorer Kailyn Gilbert is no longer with the team.
Despite this roller-coaster, Arizona’s win streak and its signature victories over Utah and Stanford have them back on the bubble. And with regular season games against USC and UCLA remaining — plus the final Pac-12 tournament — the Wildcats have plenty of opportunities to bolster their postseason resume.
