The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2021 season finally dropped on Tuesday night, and the only thing we know for certain is how little faith to put in them.
Until 2020, no team placed No. 1 in the first rankings of the year went on to win the championship that season. Alabama broke that streak in 2020 because of course it did — however there were fewer games played due to the pandemic. We also know inclusion in the first rankings are far from a guarantee that the committee will feel the same way in a few weeks.
Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn and Penn State have each seen its name listed among the top four in the first rankings only to miss the playoffs entirely. In fact, at least one of the initial teams included among the top four of the first CFP rankings of the year have failed to reach the national semifinal — with 2020 again serving as the only exception.
With seven new members serving on the playoff committee this year, chaos could be at an all-time high. Then again, there are still plenty of teams who seemingly control their own destiny and can make it nearly impossible for the committee to deny them a spot.
Here’s a look at the top-6 teams featured in the the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2021 and just how much of a challenge they — and bettors — can expect in Week 11.
All odds via Tipico Sportsbook.
No. 1 Georgia (-37.5) vs. Missouri
(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
The clear-cut No. 1 team in the country may very well coast through the rest of the regular season with no ranked teams currently remaining on its schedule.
Georgia (8-0) will host a 4-4 Missouri team that barely escaped Vanderbilt with a 37-28 victory last week and has yet to win consecutive games this season. The Tigers are +1700 on the moneyline for anyone who believes this is the week the Bulldogs fall, but Mizzou hasn’t defeated UGA since 2013 and this doesn’t look like the year that streak will end.
The Over/Under is set at 59.5
No. 2 Alabama (-28.5) vs. LSU
Alabama head coach Nick Saban directs his team during warmups prior to their NCAA college football game against Mississippi State in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. Alabama won 49-9. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
The last time LSU coach Ed Orgeron visited Tuscaloosa he picked up a massive 46-41 victory over then-No. 3 Alabama. Can he pick up one more as his Tigers tenure comes to an end?
It’s possible, but not probable.
The Crimson Tide (7-1) outscored unranked Mississippi State and Tennessee 101-33 over the last two weeks after falling to Texas A&M. LSU (4-4) has been somewhat of a mess all season. Maybe they put it all together one last time for Coach O, but oddsmakers don’t see it, listing the Tigers as +1100 on the moneyline.
The Over/Under is set at 66.5
No. 3 Michigan State (-2.5) at Purdue
(Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Easily the smallest spread of the top four teams in the initial rankings, Michigan State (8-0) could find itself on the outside looking in next Tuesday if it isn’t careful.
Purdue (5-3) already took down one giant this season by knocking off then-No. 2 Iowa, 24-7, on the road. It also tightly played then-No. 12 Notre Dame in a 27-13 loss a few weeks earlier. Now the Boilermakers host a Spartans team coming off a massive victory over rival Michigan and looking to solidify its spot in the top four.
Purdue enters at +125 on the moneyline with the Over/Under set at 54.5. This could be a wild weekend in the Big Ten if MSU isn’t at its best.
No. 4 Oregon (-6.5) at Washington
(Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports)
Pay no attention to the Ducks’ road loss at Stanford a few weeks ago. The CFP committee certainly didn’t.
Wins over then-No. 3 Ohio State, UCLA and Colorado were apparently more than enough to push Oregon (7-1) ahead of unbeaten Cincinnati as well as the Buckeyes. A 4-4 Huskies team whose signature win is a toss-up between Cal and Stanford is an underdog by just one touchdown against an Oregon team that’s 2-6 against the spread this year.
Washington is available at +205 on the moneyline. The Over/Under is set at 51.5.
No. 5 Ohio State (-14.5) at Nebraska
Should Michigan State or Oregon fall this weekend, the Buckeyes stand ready to take their place among the top four.
This should be cakewalk for Ohio State against a Cornhuskers team that’s closer to firing head coach Scott Frost than it is competing with him in charge. A win against the Buckeyes may cool off Frost’s seat considerably, but that’s asking for as big of a win as he’s delivered in Lincoln since his playing days.
Winning by more than two touchdowns should be an easy ask. Nebraska is +470 on the moneyline with the Over/Under set at 64.5.
(Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
No. 6 Cincinnati (-22.5) vs. Tulsa
(Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports)
On the one hand, the Bearcats have compiled a pristine 8-0 record without having to face a ranked team since defeating then-No. 9 Notre Dame, 24-13, on Oct. 2. On the other, Tulsa (3-5) is coming off a 20-17 loss to Navy in which the Midshipmen didn’t complete a single pass.
Spotting the Golden Hurricanes 22.5 points might not be generous enough — even if the CFP committee doesn’t have too much love for the Bearcats or Group of 5 schools in general.
Last year, they said that Cincinnati didn't play any Power 5 opponents.
This year, Cincinnati played two and beat both. One of those wins is a Top-10 win on the road.
CFP chair Gary Barta: "The win at Notre Dame was a really impressive win. … (But) who else did they beat?"
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) November 2, 2021
Tulsa is +900 on the moneyline while the Over/Under is set at 54.5.
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