It’s March and the NBA season is approaching it’s closing stretch, with less than two months to go before the playoff field is set. With teams hopefully rounding into peak form as they jockey for position, it’s a good time to take a look at where each division race stands.
That’s right, division races. And no, the NFL season isn’t back already. We’re looking at NBA division races. They may not matter to the average fan, but they absolutely carry weight in the world of betting. And as of today, three of the divisions still have odds worth betting.
I won’t be touching the the Southeast and Pacific divisions, where I like the favored Miami Heat (-225) and Los Angeles Clippers (-2500), but not at those odds. And the Atlantic division is off the board, because the Boston Celtics are running away with it. That leaves the Southwest, Central and Northwest for us to sort out.
These are the best bets for each. BetMGM odds are from before Thursday’s games.
Dallas Mavericks -120 to win the Southwest Division
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Before the NBA season resumed from the All-Star break, I suggested people jump on Dallas’ odds when they were just +155. But even as the Mavericks remain a half-game behind the New Orleans Pelicans in the Southwest, those odds have shorted a bunch and I’m afraid they’ll only get shorter from here.
For starters, the Pelicans have lost three of their last four games going into Friday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who just beat them on Wednesday. The Mavericks, though, are just a Max Strus miracle heave away from being 9-1 in their last 10 games (8-2 is still pretty good).
Dallas may not pull away in the division in the immediate future — not with games against the Celtics on Friday and winnable but tough games against Indiana and Miami next week — but eventually they’ll prove to bet the better team.
Milwaukee Bucks +110 to win the Central Division
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
As I’m writing this, the Bucks trail the Cleveland Cavaliers by a half-game, with a meeting against the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night. I’m just going to assume the Bucks beat Charlotte — as they did Tuesday — to pull even in the division. If that happens, there’s a very good chance Milwaukee will have pulled ahead in the division by this time next week and these odds are a little shorter.
The Bucks are finally getting into a groove, having won three straight games, and after playing the Hornets, they get the Chicago Bulls, Clippers and Golden State Warriors — a stretch I’m projecting them to go at least 2-1. The Cavs, on the other hand, have three losses in their last five games and play the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Celtics and Atlanta Hawks through next Thursday. I’ll take them to go 2-2 and fall into second place.
That’s not to say if they Cavs lose the division lead they can’t reclaim it later in the season. But the tighter this race remains late into the season, the shorter both teams’ odds are going to get. So now is the time to bet the team you like.
Oklahoma City Thunder +135 to win the Northwest
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
I don’t know how much I actually believe the Thunder will win the Northwest with the Denver Nuggets sitting right there, just two games back and riding some strong momentum. I do believe they’ll eventually pass the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the Nuggets make me nervous. For this one week, though, I’ll ignore my gut and trust the logic on this one.
Not only do the Thunder have a small cushion over Denver, they have an easier upcoming schedule, which should theoretically allow them to add a little more distance. Both teams play the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers before next Friday, but the Nuggets also have to play the Celtics, while OKC’s third game is against the Portland Trail Blazers.
