When the Miami Dolphins played the Denver Broncos in Week 3, they ran the ball for 350 yards and scored 70 points. When the Kansas City Chiefs played those same Broncos Sunday, they were held to a season-low nine points.
It was impossible to expect any team to replicate what Miami was able to do, but the extent of Kansas City’s struggles might be a sign of a larger issue. The Chiefs have scored 30 points just twice this season, making this the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era the defense looks significantly better than the offense.
That all has me looking at this week’s matchup between the Dolphins and Chiefs very differently than oddsmakers. Here’s a look at that game and a couple more lines I disagree with in Week 8, with odds from BetMGM.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 50.5)
AP Photo/Lynne Sladky
Dolphins-Chiefs having the highest total of Week 8 games makes sense on the surface. The Dolphins are the league’s highest-scoring team and the Chiefs are, well, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.
Looking deeper, though, KC’s offense hasn’t been its usual explosive self and the team’s defense has been really good, which doesn’t bode well for a Miami offense that tends to shrink against better competition. Add it the fact this game is being played in Germany, I could see a total that falls way short of this bloated line.
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3)
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
So let me get this straight, the Commanders just scored 31 on the Philadelphia Eagles for the second time this season and we’re supposed to believe they’re three points worse than a Patriots team averaging 15 points? Well I don’t.
I’m sure this line is simply accounting for home-field advantage in a game involving two non-playoff teams, but that hasn’t meant much for New England this season. It won’t here either.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-3)
AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth
This probably has something to do with Matthew Stafford’s hand injury and the uncertainty around his status for this week, but if Stafford ends up playing, this line will prove to be way off.
I know I questioned if the Rams were any good after their latest loss to Dallas, but I’m not ready to say at full health they’re a worse team than the Packers. Green Bay is down bad, and if the Stafford plays, the Rams are going to win this game. Sean McVay might find a way to scheme up a win without him.
