Now that we’ve all had almost a full two weeks to ponder and overanalyze the Super Bowl 58 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, it’s finally time to start locking in those picks for the big game — if you haven’t already.
The BetFTW team has sifted through every kind of action on the Super Bowl, from fun props that keep the game exciting to bets that have nothing to do with the game at all, in order to compile the most comprehensive coverage of the betting landscape. But there will always be room for your run-of-the-mill player props, and that’s what this is here (mostly).
These are my 10 favorite picks for the game, ranked by confidence. And because my picks for the spread, moneyline and total were done separately, those as well as my MVP pick are omitted below.
Odds via BetMGM
10
Kyle Juszczyk, 49ers: Over 3.5 receiving yards
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images
Can the fullback get some love in the Super Bowl? I think it’s possible. Juszczyk only needs four yards for this bet to cash, and he’s hit that number in four of his last five games, including two catches for 33 yards against the Detroit Lions in the NFC title game.
9
Deebo Samuel, 49ers: Under 15.5 rush yards
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
This may be a bit surprising given what we know about Samuel’s rushing prowess, but I have two reasons for betting the under. First, he has just three carries for seven yards this postseason, all in San Francisco’s win over Detroit. Second, the Chiefs have held receivers in check on runs this postseason, holding Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs and Zay Flowers to a total of 20 yards on four carries.
8
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: 2+ TD scorer
Carlos Avila Gonzalez/San Francisco Chronicle via AP
McCaffrey has been good money as a touchdown scorer all season, but especially in his last five games. He has eight touchdowns in that span, including three games with multiple scores. He has two touchdowns in each of his games this postseason, and a vulnerable Chiefs run defense will give him a chance to can extend that streak Sunday.
7
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs: Over 1.5 receptions
Patrick Smith/Getty Images
All we need is two catches from Valdes-Scantling, which he’s had each of the last two games. With his confidence seemingly back up to where it needs to be, I’ll take that bet. Especially knowing San Francisco’s focus will go to players like Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. Valdes-Scantling should get free for a couple catches.
6
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Under 261.5 passing yards
AP Photo/Terrance Williams
Let’s just hope those completions to Valdes-Scantling don’t go too far. I’m picking Mahomes to finish under 260 passing yards because that’s just the way I see the game script playing out. Both offenses have an advantage in the ground game. Besides, the Chiefs don’t have the most prolific passing attack to begin with. Mahomes has hit this number just once in his last five games.
5
Brock Purdy, 49ers: Over 12.5 Rush yards
AP Photo/Scot Tucker
Purdy has shown an increased willingness to use his legs when necessary this postseason, rushing a combined 11 times over San Francisco’s two playoff games. He eclipsed this line both times, including a 48-yard performance against Detroit, the second-most yards he’s ever rushed for.
4
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs: Over 66.5 rushing yards
Patrick Smith/Getty Images
If the Chiefs are going to win, they’ll want to use a heavy dose of Pacheco and the ground game to offset San Francisco’s amazing pass defense. If they do, I’m confident they’ll find success because the 49ers have been weak against the run and Pacheco has crossed this number in four straight games.
3
Chiefs: +105 1st half moneyline
AP Photo/Terrance Williams
On one side of this game, we have a two-time Super Bowl winning head coach and quarterback. On the other side, we have a head coach who hasn’t been able to get over the hump and a second-year quarterback playing in his first Super Bowl. Excuse me if I happen to favor the title-winning duo to be more comfortable and get off to a faster start, especially considering how shaky Brock Purdy has looked at times this postseason.
2
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs: Anytime TD scorer
AP Photo/Terrance Williams
I mentioned how KC’s best offensive advantage this game will be on the ground, which means Pacheco is the Chiefs player with the best chance to score in this one. With the way he’s been running this postseason, that was likely to be the case regardless. He has a touchdown in all three playoff games.
1
Travis Kelce, Chiefs: Over 6.5 receptions
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
When the Chiefs need a big play in the passing game, I fully expect Kelce to be the player Patrick Mahomes goes to. He has 23 catches on 27 targets this postseason alone, eclipsing this number twice in three games. I don’t have a question about whether he’ll do it again.
