Super Bowl 58 between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs is still days away in Las Vegas, but already plenty of wagers have been made.
We’ve been keeping track of the biggest bets and notable wagers in this file, so be sure to check back often for updates. For The Win has also been compiling bets from respected bettors and will put them all below to help you with your Super Bowl picks.
Stay tuned as bigger money tends to come in late on the Super Bowl and that’ll likely be the case again with so many sportsbooks near the stadium.
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110, Bet365)
(AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
“The Kansas City wide receivers have struggled to gain separation all year long, which has led to an uptick in rushing opportunities for quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
“Mahomes saw 75 rushing attempts this year, the highest of his six years as an NFL starting quarterback. His 389 yards were also a career best, and now [he] faces a San Francisco defense that allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to the position. Mahomes will do whatever it takes to win, especially in the Super Bowl. He has posted 44, 33 and 29 rushing yards in his prior three Super Bowls, and now faces a stout 49ers pass defense with limited offensive receiving options.
“Mahomes has been forced to run more this year due to the struggles of their wide receiver core, and has nine games of 28 rushing yards or more, with four games of 41 or more yards. Most do not think of Mahomes as a runner, but looking at the pattern this season, I’m backing him to beat this 25.5 number with ease.
— Mike Randle, Chief Content Officer at FTN Network
Brock Purdy to win Super Bowl MVP (+265)
(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
“I like the 49ers in the game and the best way in is Purdy MVP. There’s definitely a path to victory where Christian McCaffrey is the guy, but if San Francisco is gonna win it’s because Purdy is doing something. Considering Chiefs are good, but not great on D-line I think Purdy at +265 is a good value.
“If Purdy doesn’t have a good game, the Chiefs are going to win going away. I’m willing to suspend disbelief that the 49ers defense is going to be a no-show and they’ll be able to generate pressure on Mahomes with the front four. I think it’s going to be a great Super Bowl.”
— Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports Bet
Isiah Pacheco Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-111, Caesars)
(AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
“Pacheco is a workhorse for the Kansas City ground attack, with 18 or more carries in four of his last six games. He ended the season with 110 rushing yards at Green Bay and 130 rushing yards at home against Cincinnati.
“Pacheco now faces a San Francisco run defense that finished the year ranked an uninspiring 15th in the league per DVOA. There is a huge discrepancy between the 49ers’ ability to stop the run versus the pass (fourth best), which leads teams to attack San Francisco behind their lead running back. San Francisco allowed Green Bay RB Aaron Jones to run for 108 yards, and three separate Detroit Lions to run for at least 40 yards, led by David Montgomery’s 93 yards at 6.2 yards per carry.
“Pacheco racked up 89 yards on 24 carries against Miami, 97 yards at Buffalo, and 68 tough yards on 24 carries against the stout Baltimore run defense. I’m taking the over here in a favorable matchup against a San Francisco defense that has struggled to stop the run all season.”
— Mike Randle, Chief Content Officer at FTN Network
Mahomes Over 36.5 pass attempts
(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
“Mahomes has a much lower average distance of target (ADOT) than in previous seasons. Based on this likely being a closer game, the game script has him throwing. Kansas City has the second-highest rate of neutral game passes and teams throw on San Francisco at the third-highest rate in neutral game situations as well. Mahomes has cleared this mark in 10 of 13 career postseason games in which he didn’t get hurt, and his median this year is 39.
“We did a deep dive of all major player stat categories in the Super Bowl since 2000, and the single highest rate of occurrence for any stat to go over in the Super Bowl versus their regular season average was pass attempts for QBs: 72 percent of all QBs who have started a Super Bowl in the last 23 years saw their SB attempts exceed their season average and nearly 70 percent cleared their attempts prop.”
— ClevTA, handicapper
George Kittle Over 47.5 receiving yards (-120)
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY
“Kittle has been Brock Purdy’s safety net against high pressure/blitz defenses, putting up big days against the likes of Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Jacksonville this season. His targets, receptions and yardage all spiked against those aggressive pass rushes and now San Francisco faces Kansas City, which is second in pressure rate. Player projections are all friendly to Kittle as well, with some ceilings beyond 60 yards.”
— Jason Logan, Covers
