The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t look like AFC champions on Christmas. Instead, they looked vulnerable behind an offense seemingly sputtering its way to a stop on the highway to the 2024 Super Bowl.
Their 14-20 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16 laid the team’s flaws bare. Patrick Mahomes had run out of targets. Travis Kelce was mortal. One of the best defenses of the Andy Reid era was a brick wall but unable to create game-changing turnovers. Kansas City was 9-6 and staring down an extended run of road games in order to defend their NFL championship.
The Chiefs survived that gauntlet. They first proved the Miami Dolphins were pretenders to the throne on a frigid night in Arrowhead Stadium. Next came underdog wins in Buffalo and Baltimore, knocking off a pair of MVP caliber quarterbacks along the way. Now, the only thing standing between becoming the first back-to-back Super Bowl winners since the New England Patriots in 2004 and 2005 is the team Reid, Kelce and Mahomes beat in 2020: the San Francisco 49ers.
This Niners team is an upgraded version of the one Kansas City came back to beat four years ago. Brock Purdy is a more stable quarterback than Jimmy Garoppolo. Christian McCaffrey arrived to add yet another dimension to the offense. Former Chief Charvarius Ward has emerged as a shutdown corner in Santa Clara.
Even so, the 2024 Super Bowl is a game the Chiefs can win as a slight -2.5 point underdog. Here’s how.
1
Fill the middle of the field with Isiah Pacheco runs and Travis Kelce receptions to free up single coverage elsewhere
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Difficulty: Moderate
Here’s the good news: The 49ers have the league’s 25th-best run defense. They’ve allowed more than 300 rushing yards across two playoff games in 2024.
The Lions found tons of room with runs between the tackles. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 138 yards on 27 carries and a pair of touchdowns before falling apart in the NFC title game. Running up the gut means attacking one of the league’s most omnipresent players in Fred Warner, which puts a ceiling on those runs.
But enough positive runs means Warner, one of the best coverage linebackers on the planet, and Dre Greenlaw, whose two interceptions ruined the Green Bay Packers’ night in the divisional round, have to start each snap peering into the backfield. And a split second of separation is all Travis Kelce needs to create a first down.
Creating gains in the middle of the field also means the 49ers competent safety duo of Tashaun Gipson and Ji’Ayir Brown has to play upfield more often, leaving more single coverage opportunities for the Chiefs wideouts. That’ll be a problem against former teammate Charvarius Ward, who is awesome. It will be a blessing against Ambry Thomas, who is not. This can create a moveable object/stoppable force showdown between San Francisco’s limited cornerback depth and Kansas City’s lack of viable wideouts.
The easiest solution would be to let Pacheco and Kelce feast, but the Niners are likely to stop that. The assets they pour into stopping those two will create gaps elsewhere. That’s where Mahomes will look to strike.
2
Attack Brock Purdy without blitzing (and catch his interceptable throws)
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Difficulty: Inexplicably tough
Purdy is both a good quarterback and a maddening one. This makes him significantly better for Kyle Shanahan’s offense than Jimmy Garoppolo, who was mostly just the latter.
He does share some Garoppolo traits. His Niners predecessor was good for roughly one baffling throw per quarter. Purdy isn’t nearly that inaccurate or frustrating, but he throws a lot more off-target passes than his 11 interceptions in 2023 would suggest. Occasionally, he turns these bad throws into magic because Shanahan’s skill players are a bunch of wizards.
AIYUK UNBELIEVABLE!
📺: #DETvsSF on FOX
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It would be nice if there were something more complex to this equation than “catch the ball,” but no. That’s pretty much where we are. Purdy throws an interceptable pass roughly one in every 30 tries. The Chiefs need to turn that into a momentum-shifting change of possession.
Of course, there are ways to help. Purdy’s elite efficiency can be chalked up to his ability to quickly process the field in front of him and deliver the ball right as his routes develop. It’s a trait that’s made him one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks against the blitz. And, as we saw versus the Lions in the NFC championship game, he’s also capable of absolutely demoralizing a defense by escaping pressure and running for clutch first downs (48 rushing yards).
But he’s worse when four-man rushes bring pressure and the wide open slots downfield are suddenly scarce. Putting seven men in coverage is the best way to slow the Niners’ stable of playmakers. It will go a long way in mitigating any weaknesses in the middle of the field; Kansas City won’t have to worry about Drue Tranquill in coverage against a seam-busting star like George Kittle if he can pass him off in zone coverage.
3
Divise an answer for Christian McCaffrey's run game
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Difficulty: Extreme
The 49ers have a weak run defense going up against a good running back. The Chiefs have an even worse run defense going up against the league’s best running back.
via rbsdm.com and the author
Over 21 weeks, San Francisco’s -0.034 expected points added (EPA) per rushing play ranks 27th among all NFL defenses. Kansas City’s -0.026 clocks in at 28th. Given the relative strength of each team’s secondary, the 2024 Super Bowl could be decided by who rips off the biggest runs.
In which case, hooooo boy, this is a problem for the Chiefs. McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing by nearly 300 total yards. He had at least one run of 25 yards or better in half his games this season (nine of 18). His 5.4 yards per carry were by far a career high, buoyed by an offensive line that cleared 3.2 yards before contact — tops among all tailbacks in 2023.
McCaffrey is going to see the ball a ton; he had at least 18 touches in all but two games this season. He has four rushing touchdowns in two playoff games to pair with 260 yards from scrimmage. Kyle Shanahan may be an innovator who constantly finds new ways to deploy his weapons, but his plan here will be obvious; use his all-world tailback to turn Kansas City’s biggest weakness into a fatal flaw.
How can the Chiefs stop this? They’ll need Willie Gay and Nick Bolton both healthy after each off-ball linebacker missed games due to injury this year. It also means Justin Reid will be playing more in the box and charging downhill to fill gaps from his safety position. That’s going to leave the secondary vulnerable to big plays with only Mike Edwards manning center field, but both L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have played at an All-Pro level at cornerback this season, giving Kansas City the leverage to survive and maybe even thrive in single coverage.
