With the reveal of the latest College Football Playoff rankings, we have a good idea of what each team needs to do in this final week to make the final four in order to play for a national championship.
For the four remaining undefeated teams, the mission is simple: win. Though even that may not be enough for Florida State, which could still require a little something extra after losing Jordan Travis for the season — but we’ll get to that later.
The remaining teams, however, definitely need a little help, even with wins. So, I went through the scenarios to figure out the path of least resistance for each, whether they win this weekend to claim conference championships or suffer losses.
1
Georgia (12-0)
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Next game: SEC championship game vs. Alabama, Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
Best path to the CFP: Win
Best path with a loss: Losses by Texas AND Michigan or Florida State
For each of the top-3 teams, the goal is simple: Win to remain unbeaten — and avoid any major injuries — and you’re more than likely in. That starts with two-time defending champion Georgia, though a game against Alabama is anything but easy.
If the Bulldogs lose, they still have a path, though things get a lot more complicated. They would likely need Texas to lose to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, because Texas has a head-to-head win over Alabama and would probably get a CFP spot ahead of the Tide with another win. A Texas loss alone wouldn’t guarantee Georgia a spot, but it would decrease the amount of help Georgia would need.
If Texas wins, the Bulldogs will likely need losses by both Michigan and Florida State to advance. Because the Pac-12 winner would likely join Alabama and Texas in the final four, Georgia would want to make the CFP decide between the other one-loss nonconference winners (including Ohio State) for the last spot.
There might still be a chance for a one-loss Georgia to get in ahead of undefeated Florida State if the committee decides the latter isn’t as good without injured quarterback Jordan Travis. But the Bulldogs don’t want to tempt fate in that way.
2
Michigan (12-0)
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Next game: Big Ten championship game vs. Iowa, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
Best path to the CFP: Win
Best path with a loss: Losses by Alabama, Oregon AND Texas
Michigan has the easiest conference title game on paper, among the teams still playing, which makes a potential loss for the Wolverines the most devastating of the undefeated teams. If Michigan loses to Iowa as a 23.5-point favorite, it would likely need every other team entering the week with one loss to lose a second game (except for Ohio State, obviously). So that means losses by Alabama, Texas and Oregon. That scenario would make it hard for the CFP to change the current top four, though Michigan would likely drop down from No. 2 to No. 4.
3
Washington (12-0)
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Next game: Pac-12 championship game vs. Oregon, Friday at 8 p.m. ET
Best path to CFP: Win
Best path with a loss: Loss by Florida State
A loss by Washington would put the CFP committee in an interesting spot because Washington already has a win over Oregon on its resume. Lacking a conference title would obviously be a negative for the Huskies, but one loss to a team they already beat isn’t the worse thing in the world.
Unfortunately, they would still need help, because that title would likely get Oregon into the top four and doesn’t leave room for Washington if Georgia, Michigan and Florida State all remain unbeaten. So, the Huskies would need at least one of those three to lose, with a Florida State loss likely giving it the best shot.
4
Florida State (12-0)
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Next game: ACC championship game vs. Louisville, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
Best path to CFP: Win convincingly
Best path with a loss: Losses by Alabama, Oregon AND Texas
Because of the injury to Jordan Travis, I can’t say a win guarantees Florida State a spot in the final four. After barely squeezing by Florida in its regular-season finale, Florida State will likely need to beat Louisville in convincing fashion to remove any doubt the committee might have about whether it belongs in the playoff over even some of the one-loss teams, including Ohio State.
With that said, a loss would obviously make things even tougher. But if there’s a chance at all, Florida State would likely need all the one loss teams to lose a second game. And it would also help if Michigan loss just to weaken Ohio State’s case.
5
Oregon (11-1)
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Next game: Pac-12 championship game vs. Washington, Friday at 8 p.m. ET
Best path to CFP: Win
Best path with a loss: Losses by Alabama, Florida State AND Texas
After playing Washington down to the wire in their first meeting, Oregon would likely take the Huskies’ spot in the top four with a win in their second meeting. However, a second loss would make it incredibly difficult for the Ducks no matter how tight they play it. Second losses by Alabama and Texas would help them to stay in the top five, but it’s the loss by Florida State that would give them a chance. The only question at that point would be if the committee prefers one-loss Ohio State over Florida State and Oregon.
6
Ohio State (11-1)
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Next game: None
Best path to CFP: Win by Michigan AND losses by Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and Texas
Path to CFP: Pray. That’s what I should have wrote for the Buckeyes, because their regular-season ending loss to Michigan left their fate up to everyone else. And they need a ton of help. First, they likely need Michigan to complete the mission and win the Big Ten title game, because a tight loss to a conference champ looks better than a loss to the team that lost to Iowa. Then, they want to get the other one-loss teams out the way, because they all have a chance — which Ohio State doesn’t — to add conference titles to their records. And finally, the Buckeyes will need Florida State to also lose to open up a CFP spot behind Michigan, Georgia and Washington.
7
Texas (11-1)
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Next game: Big 12 championship game vs. Oklahoma State, Saturday at Noon ET
Best path to CFP: Win AND losses by Georgia and Oregon
Best path with a loss: Losses by Alabama, Oregon AND Florida State
Let me just say this first. If Texas loses, I’m not sure its chances to make the CFP exist even if all the above things also occur. A loss to three-loss Oklahoma State would be the worst for any team on this list. The committee might just give the last spot to Ohio State if it came to that.
However, Texas’ win over Alabama earlier in the year has the potential to cause the most chaos as the season wraps, because if Alabama beats Georgia, a Big 12 title likely puts Texas ahead of the SEC champion. But then what does the committee do with a one-loss SEC champion if Michigan, Washington and Florida State all win to stay undefeated? It would likely be a decision between Alabama or Florida State, and either one is likely to cause an uproar.
8
Alabama (11-1)
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Next game: SEC championship game vs. Georgia, Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
Best path to CFP: Win AND a loss by Texas OR Florida State
Best path with a loss: None
As I previously mentioned, Texas holds a ton of power over Alabama thanks to its head-to-head win earlier this season. So, the Tide are in a tough spot even if they beat Georgia. The best way to be sure nothing silly happens in that scenario is if Texas loses to Oklahoma State. That way, Alabama can be safely placed ahead of Georgia without having to worry about all the other undefeated teams and Texas being placed ahead of it in the final rankings. And if they lose, there’s no scenario that gets a two-loss Alabama in.
