It all comes down to this.
Tonight could be a historic moment in Denver Nuggets’ history. Should Nikola Jokic and Co. come out victorious, they will have captured the franchise’s first-ever NBA title. In an organization that’s had legends like Carmelo Anthony, Alex English, and Dikembe Mutumbo, this sort of achievement has been a long time coming.
But the Miami Heat aren’t dead yet. Even with zero margins for error while down 3-1 in these NBA Finals, Miami has proven it has an uncommon fighting spirit. Of course, so have the Nuggets, which is why they’re up 3-1. It’ll be a tall task to win three straight games — two on the road — against this Denver juggernaut, but if anyone can manage the seemingly impossible, it’ll be the Heat.
(Whispers: They’re probably not going to manage the seemingly impossible)
Here are three bets to make for Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals in Denver tonight. All odds courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
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1
Nikola Jokic (Over 9.5 assists)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
At this point, I have little doubt that Nikola Jokic will earn his NBA Finals MVP Award. Even with the steady rise of Jamal Murray, Jokic is unquestionably the Nuggets’ best player and their 18-cylinder engine in becoming the NBA’s best team.
To cement his Finals MVP status, Jokic will have no issue pumping up his assist numbers while creating offense for his teammates at home tonight. By his incredibly high standards, Jokic has had two “disappointing” games with just four assists during these Finals. With Denver’s first-ever championship on the line, expect a massive course correction from Jokic.
Better yet, expect to make him some notable history in the process.
If Jokic records 14 assists tonight in a win, he would be the first player in NBA lore to average a triple-double (points, rebounds, assists) en route to a title. The last time Jokic notched 14 dimes in a matchup? In Denver’s Game 1 win of these Finals.
One more passing masterclass for this unique big man is on the horizon.
2
Nikola Jokic (First player to 10 points, Over 29.5 points)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Oh yeah. We’re leaning so much into a seminal career moment for Jokic that I technically cheated with two bets to make here.
Tonight is Jokic’s first chance at a title in an already legendary career. And stars like Jokic in massive games like this simply do not let the inferior team hang around. They take it and run if there’s an opening to put the proverbial foot down. Beyond Jokic’s expected stellar passing numbers, he’s also going to set the tone with a smooth scoring touch to start and an overall sublime performance around the rim, too.
In other words, it’s essentially going to be Jokic’s size-16 boot putting the foot down on the Heat’s season in a Nuggets’ championship win.
3
Nuggets destroy pregame -9 spread
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Everything about this game in Denver screams blowout in favor of the home team to me. After the Nuggets took one on the chin in Game 2, their adjustments leading to two victories in Miami were resounding. The once-competitive Heat resembled a second-class team that had no answer for the Nuggets’ loaded arsenal of solutions.
With the championship on the line, the air will finally come entirely out of Miami’s sails. I think we’ve reached the point in the series where both squads realize who’s better. Of course, at face value, after romping through the Eastern Conference’s heavyweights, the Heat understanding the Nuggets are better doesn’t mean anything.
But the sleight-of-hand tricks and body blows the Heat landed on squads like the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics haven’t worked against the Nuggets. In almost every instance that the Heat had Denver backed into a corner, the Nuggets were ready with an appropriate response. Where the Bucks and Celtics messed around, playing with their “food” far too much and giving Miami chances, the Nuggets are taking their Finals opponent seriously.
They’re leaving them no margin for error, and the difference between the quality of the two squads is stark.
Tonight’s game in Denver might be one of the city’s most anticipated major sporting events ever. The Nuggets will give the watching crowd at the arena and everyone at home quite the championship-winning spectacle while humbling the Heat one last time.
