Last week, we nailed the easy one.
Somehow picking the Miami Dolphins to cover by “a lot more” than 6.5 points over the Denver Broncos — or, to be exact, “by at least two touchdowns” — didn’t do the final 50-point difference justice.
Unfortunately, that was the only bad line I spotted, as my other two disagreeable lines from Week 3 turned out to be bad in the opposite direction. The Browns were, in fact, much better than the Titans and should have been favored by more. And who saw the Texans lighting up the Jaguars like that?
I certainly didn’t. And yet, here I am, back at the drawing board with three more lines I disagree with in Week 4.
Seahawks at Giants (O/U 47)
AP Photo/Ben VanHouten
The Seahawks and Giants both rank bottom 10 in the NFL in yards allowed by their defenses this season. They’re both bottom five in points allowed too. And yet, the total for this game is only the third highest of the week.
Part of that has to do with one of the offenses involved; the Giants are also a bottom five scoring team. But they may get Saquon Barkley back, which should help them contribute to a total that goes well over 50. That their offense is the biggest question, however, is why I’m also confused about why New York is even favored. The Seahawks can put up points in a hurry. They’ll have their way on offense.
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Joe Rondone-USA TODAY Sports
OK, so look, I don’t want to overreact to Dallas’ loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week, but, at the same time, I’m not exactly sure what else I’m supposed to do when the Dallas Cowboys lose to the Arizona freaking Cardinals. And it wasn’t just that they lost, but they didn’t look good doing it, especially Dak Prescott.
Now, Prescott has to take the bad taste of the final minutes of that game into a meeting with the Patriots, and yikes man. I don’t think New England has the offensive firepower to beat Dallas, but it certainly has the defense to keep things close against a suddenly turnover-prone quarterback. For that reason, I like this game to finish a lot closer to three points in favor of Dallas.
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
AP Photo/Terrance Williams
I just watched the Colts beat the Baltimore Ravens with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. So I think it’s safe to say the Colts are probably better than the skidding Rams. And I think that’s especially the case if Anthony Richardson returns, though it still holds true even if Minshew has to go again.
This Rams defense is absolutely horrible and the Colts should be able to have their way offensively. Meanwhile, their own defense will have a chance to disrupt Matthew Stafford all afternoon behind an awful offensive line. This spread should be at least four points.
