2023 team: Kansas City Chiefs

2024 prediction: Chiefs

Kansas City knows how valuable Jones is. Fortunately for the Chiefs, Jones wants to come back — and he said as much at this spring’s Super Bowl parade. It won’t be cheap, but it’s a necessary expenditure.

2023 team: Carolina Panthers

2024 prediction: Washington Commanders (via trade)

Washington needs to make a splash and will need to pay handsomely to lure free agents to one of the least respected franchises in sports. Fortunately, the Commanders have more than $90 million to spend and can pluck a star from the NFC’s other dysfunctional new(ish) owner.

Here’s the problem; the Panthers have already franchise tagged Burns — a move that eats up nearly two-thirds of their available salary cap space. If Carolina doesn’t think a long-term deal is viable with its star edge rusher, the team could work out a tag-and-trade scenario that helps replenish one of the league’s weakest rosters with valuable draft picks. Burns would help fill the void left by last October’s trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

2023 team: Jacksonville Jaguars

2024 prediction: Jaguars

Allen finally exceeded the potential shown in his rookie 2019 campaign, even as the Jacksonville defense struggled around him. The Jags gave up at least four touchdowns in four of their final six games, only beating the lowly Carolina Panthers in that stretch while spiraling out of the postseason. This unit needs help, and the most obvious play is to retain the guy who had 17.5 sacks last year.

2023 team: Cincinnati Bengals

2024 prediction: Bengals

Cincinnati knows exactly what Higgins means to Joe Burrow’s passing attack. He’s the WR1b who makes life easier for everyone, particularly Ja’Marr Chase. Rivals may come calling now that the Bengals have franchise tagged their starting wideout, but the team has enough cap space to retain his services well into the future.

2023 team: Minnesota Vikings

2024 prediction: Vikings

Cousins may be preparing his family to move to Atlanta, but in terms of bluffs it’s a play that seems as confident and likely as Gobias Industries. Minnesota may have to open the vault to keep him, but it’s possible the Vikings could retain the veteran on a three-year deal that isn’t ultimately too damaging in the long term and potentially brilliant should he return to his 2023 form. Then again, he’s a 35-year-old coming off an Achilles tear, so caveat emptor.

2023 team: Chicago Bears

2024 prediction: Bears

It’s unlikely the Bears would let Johnson leave after franchise tagging their star cornerback thanks to more than $75 million in salary cap space. That’s a common sense play considering division rivals like the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings could each dive into the market for his services. Instead, they’ll keep the cornerback who was vital to the league’s third-ranked defense over the final half of the 2023 campaign.

2023 team: Baltimore Ravens

2024 prediction: Ravens

Madubuike’s 33 quarterback hits were more than double the total he’d had in his three seasons leading up to 2023. It makes sense Baltimore may want proof his breakout year was more than just an outlier from a pretty good starter. That leaves the very real chance the Ravens hang onto their homegrown tackle via the franchise tag before approaching a potential long term, big money deal next spring. But if someone comes calling with a godfather deal — say, the Arizona Cardinals — Madubuike could be on the move.

2023 team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2024 prediction: Buccaneers

Tampa Bay understood the value in its do-everything safety and locked him down with the franchise tag. A long-term, market-resetting extension feels like the logical conclusion for the reigning NFC South champions. Winfield had 12 passes defensed, six forced fumbles and six sacks as the Bucs’ jack-of-all-trades.

2023 team: Chiefs

2024 prediction: Detroit Lions (via trade)

This top 10 has been a big boring so far. Let’s get a little spicy with the best interior corner in the game.

Retaining both Jones and Sneed is going to be difficult for Kansas City, which came into the week before free agency with only around $3 million in cap space. Thus, a tag-and-trade could move the league’s top slot corner out of the AFC.

As previously mentioned, a pair of NFC North teams could badly use CB help. Minnesota has bigger needs than cornerback, but adding an eraser like Sneed would provide man coverage insurance in Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense. The Lions, on the other hand, have significantly more cap space with which to fold in an extension and a core closer to contention than the Vikings. Sneed would be the kind of disruptor that makes life easier for everyone in the secondary and allows Brian Branch more room to ruin wideouts all over the field.

2023 team: Miami Dolphins

2024 prediction: Las Vegas Raiders

The Browns make sense for Wilkins, but have limited cap space and may instead opt for an offensive upgrade (keep reading). This Vegas fit isn’t perfect, moving Wilkins from the 3-4 lineup in which he thrived to the Raiders’ 4-3. But Wilkins would have the chance to sew chaos in the middle of the line and work in tandem with Maxx Crosby to harass AFC West quarterbacks.

Crosby has thrived despite a lack of support — though Malcolm Koonce finished 2023 strong. Now he gets a proper Pro Bowl running mate to ease the pressure on Las Vegas’ overtaxed secondary.

2023 team: Seattle Seahawks

2024 prediction: Houston Texans

Houston exceeded expectations in its first year of taking things seriously since Bill O’Brien’s firing. This young defense could use some veteran stability. Enter Williams, who could help reigning rookie of the year Will Anderson Jr. thrive by shrinking pockets and soaking up blockers. Houston has just over $70 million to spend this offseason; expect a splurge on scale-tipping vets.

2023 team: Vikings

2024 prediction: Arizona Cardinals

Hunter isn’t a perfect fit given the Cardinals’ timeline, but there’s reason to believe Arizona could surprise people in 2024. Kyler Murray played like a top 10 quarterback over the final six games of 2023 despite a wretched receiving corps and could be throwing passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. next fall. That doesn’t fix a broken defense, but the still-productive Hunter might.

2023 team: Buccaneers

2024 prediction: Buccaneers

Tampa Bay made things nice and easy for us, signing Evans to a two-year, $41 million extension a week before free agency kicked off. That’s a boon for whomever is quarterbacking the Bucs in 2024, whether that’s Baker Mayfield or someone else.

2023 team: Dallas Cowboys

2024 prediction: New York Jets

There’s a world in which the Bengals recreate the Andrew Whitworth story from the Rams’ side of things by sniping a future Hall of Famer in his mid-30s and making him a key part of a Super Bowl run. But Smith and Orlando Brown Jr. are both left tackles, making this an imperfect fit despite the otherwise perfect fit.

Instead, let’s watch the Jets use the bulk of their cap space to keep the 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles on which their hopes of relevance rest happy. New York’s tackle spots are a blank slate and Smith would be an immense upgrade.

2023 team: Panthers

2024 prediction: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has pressing needs in the secondary, but in this exercise has missed out on Jaylon Johnson, L’Jarius Sneed and Antoine Winfield Jr.. That’s fine, because the Eagles can address another need by bringing Luvu in to shore up their linebacker corps.

The Panthers bought low on the former New York Jet and watched him develop into one of the league’s most reliable and versatile inside linebackers. He’d upgrade a unit filled with veterans on the brink of free agency and an underwhelming, but intriguing, option in Nakobe Dean.

2023 team: Jaguars

2024 prediction: Cleveland Browns

The challenge here will be to carve out the cap space needed to sign a top notch wideout; Cleveland only has about $7 million in cap space a week before the legal tampering period begins. That may mean restructuring Deshaun Watson’s deal — the fully guaranteed $230 million extension he got despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as “predatory behavior” dating back to his time in Houston.

Kicking that can down the road isn’t ideal, but the Browns badly need something to transform Watson back into a Pro Bowl caliber player. Pumping up his receiving corps would help. Ridley thrived when the Jaguars’ offense was loaded with pass-catching options last fall. Now he’d get to pair with Amari Cooper and David Njoku in hopes of reviving Cleveland’s passing attack.

2023 team: Los Angeles Rams

2024 prediction: Washington Commanders

Only Sam Cosmi and Andrew Wylie are poised to return to the starting lineup of a weak blocking unit in 2024. That leaves plenty of room for upgrades and a ton of money with which do to it. Dotson is arguably the best interior lineman on the market and the Rams, with more than $40 million to spend, will be hesitant to let him go. But Washington can toss a godfather offer his way, especially with a young new quarterback on the horizon.

2023 team: New England Patriots

2024 prediction: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee needs blocking help that fits with the timeline of its rebuild. The 26-year-old Onwenu makes sense. The Patriot standout can handle multiple roles up front, filling in at either tackle spot or, ideally, pairing with Peter Skoronski to give the Titans one of the best interior blocking combinations in the NFL. That would make life easier for Will Levis, but it would be a godsend to whomever has to fill Derrick Henry’s shoes in 2024.

2023 team: Indianapolis Colts

2024 prediction: Colts

Pittman would have made a great New England Patriots, but Indianapolis franchise tagged Pittman and it makes sense. The Colts have a young franchise quarterback in Anthony Richardson and there’s immense value to having a sure-handed veteran for him to target; particularly one that’s only 26 years old.

But let’s say the two sides don’t come to a long-term agreement. Let’s fantasy book a potential Pittman trade.

There’s one year remaining on the Daniel Jones experiment; the Giants can separate themselves from him after 2024 with minimal cap effects. But we’ve seen he can be effective under Brian Daboll, even with a grim receiving corps. So in hopes of restoring his value — or setting the table for whomever comes next — New York adds one of the most reliable targets on the market. Pittman’s presence as a steady short and intermediate range target would help Darius Slayton, quietly one of the league’s more efficient wideouts, get back to his downfield roots and create leverage for the Giants to create something approaching an average passing attack.

I mean, it’s not gonna happen. But it’d be cool if it did.

2023 team: Cincinnati Bengals

2024 prediction: Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta’s approach of adding veteran talent in free agency led to a breakthrough in 2023. The offense couldn’t follow through, but the proof of concept is there. Now, with Calais Campbell a free agent staring down the twilight of his career, the Falcons give Grady Jarrett another disruptive running mate up front. But hey, if he lingers on the market and his price drops maybe he swaps out one Ohio team (Bengals) for the other (Browns).

2023 team: Ravens

2024 prediction: Seahawks

Seattle went on a cost-cutting mission a week before free agency began, flushing out its projected starting safeties in Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs. That creates the room — both on the balance sheet and in the lineup — for Stone to reunite with the coach who pushed him to very-goodness in Baltimore. Mike Macdonald got the most out of his young players in Baltimore and Stone is a shining example. He’ll get a chance to be a back-end eraser for a seconary built on young stars like Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon.

2023 team: Ravens

2024 prediction: Bears

Chicago’s offensive line isn’t the team’s most glaring issue, but it’s one that makes sense to upgrade. Two top 10 draft picks could drop a new quarterback/wideout combination into the lineup and it makes sense to keep the pocket clean as possible for them while carving out space for the run game. A veteran like Zeitler can handle those duties with aplomb, providing the foundation for a young offense around him to finally blast off.

2023 team: Patriots

2024 prediction: Rams

The Patriots transition tagged Dugger, giving them right of first refusal should another team come calling. Since they’ve been shut out in this round of theoretical free agent signings, they’d probably match whatever contract comes across their desk for the versatile safety. But that’s unexciting; let’s take a look at one contender who could be interested.

Los Angeles’ defense held together better than expected despite massive turnover in 2023. But both the team’s starting safeties are free agents and there’s a new coordinator in town now that Raheem Morris is head coach of the Falcons. That presents an opportunity for Dugger to continue his ascent by jumping to a playoff team and cleaning up the messes a potent pass rush leaves behind.

2023 team: New York Giants

2024 prediction: Titans

Tennessee’s youth movement continues with a 24-year-old safety coming off the most complete season of his career. The Titans have a big hole to fill in their secondary following the trade of Kevin Byard. McKinney can play both deep or in the box and would create some much needed versatility along the team’s last line of defense.

2023 team: Bengals

2024 prediction: Eagles

The Philadelphia secondary was a mess last season. While Darius Slay remains solid, he’s 32 years old. James Bradberry will turn 31 this season and is coming off one of his worst years as a pro. Stability is needed, and while Awuzie is a risk he’s one worth taking.

The veteran allowed just a 53.5 passer rating in 2022, albeit in just eight games before tearing his ACL. He was worse in 2023, but his second year post-injury could frame his bounce-back season in a needy cornerback group nicely.