AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith

Man, this game was supposed to be awesome; a sigil of the Bengals’ resilience or a sign we all have to take the Jaguars seriously. Instead, we get Jacksonville against a 5-6 opponent quarterbacked by Jake Browning. (fart noises)

The Jaguars have bounced back from a shellacking at the hands of the 49ers in Week 10, beating the Tennessee Titans (meh) and Houston Texans (better) along the way. Cincinnati, however, is mired in a three-game losing streak which includes a road loss to those Texans with Joe Burrow in the lineup and divisional defeats to the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers without him.

There’s a chance this falls into a trap game for the Jags after a pressure-filled Week 12 win. But the Bengals were a mess with a not-100 percent Burrow and even worse without him. Jacksonville, at home, is the easy pick.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 8-4 (.667)

Bob Self/Florida Times-Union

The 49ers are a wrecking ball but capable of spiraling into cycles of sloppy play. Their three-game losing streak in October didn’t come against Super Bowl contenders but against one elite defense (Cleveland Browns), one uber-aggressive one (Minnesota Vikings) and one that frequently finds ways to punch above its weight class (Bengals). They scored 17 points in each of those games and endured a familiar early(ish) season slump.

They’ve found a way to recover from these mistakes in the past. The 2021 Niners started 3-5 and rallied to the NFC title game. The 2022 version was 3-4 and did the same. Few coaches in the league can course correct around a shaky quarterback like Kyle Shanahan.

But the Eagles present a difficult challenge, even if its defense isn’t playing at last year’s level. Philly keeps finding ways to win. In its last four games, the team has stared down a fourth quarter win probability of 25 percent or less three times. It responded with 51 fourth quarter/overtime points in those three games. That’s the kind of magic that’s extremely difficult to quantity in any meaningful way beside “they got that dog in them.”

Still, there’s got to be a breaking point somewhere. A game against a revenge-minded opponent who is arguably the toughest out on the Eagles’ schedule is a logical place to find it.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 11-1 (.917)

© Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Taking an underdog in Week 13 either means backing the Eagles (see above) or rolling with a shaky, often bad quarterback. If the New York Jets were even quarterbacked by Zach Wilson I’d take them to beat the Atlanta Falcons at home, but there’s no way you can convince me Tim Boyle is the better option there.

The New England Patriots play a flawed Chargers team at home but have to play either Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, which is like deciding between maximum security prisons when all your other friends are picking spring break hotels. The Cleveland Browns have the defense to crack the Rams but field an offense led by either an injured Dorian Thompson-Robinson (the NFL’s worst starter the last two weeks) or PJ Walker (completing 48 percent of his passes in 2023).

So after reviewing my picks and realizing they were 100 percent chalk, I sighed and … backed Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans.

It’s not that I think Levis is great; it’s that the Colts may be primed for a disappointment. Not only is this a road game against a divisional rival, but Indianapolis’ three-game winning streak came vs. two of the three worst teams in the NFL (New England, Carolina) and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad with a 15 percent shot at the playoffs despite playing in the NFC South.

Levis has been quietly solid the last two weeks (171 yards per game, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and only three sacks taken). If he can avoid negative plays and keep his offense on schedule this could be the kind of grind-em-down game Tennessee loves. So, sure. Give me the Titans instead of the Browns when it comes to this week’s upset.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 10-2 (.833)