Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

When in doubt, pick against the Giants. But Week 11’s unbalanced slate means Tommy DeVito isn’t even a top-three biggest underdog. That mantle belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders (+13 at the Miami Dolphins), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5 at the San Francisco 49ers) and the aforementioned Cowboys.

In terms of sheer dominance, I prefer Dallas against a bad opponent over a rejuvenated, post-Josh McDaniels Raiders squad or a competent Buccaneers team. The Cowboys have shoved the New York Giants, New York Jets, New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams into lockers this season, and while their road loss in Arizona provides pause, I imagine they’ll be able to pull this one out even if Carolina’s defense makes things tougher than expected.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 7-3 (.700)

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This was a tough call even when we assumed it would be Deshaun Watson working to overcome his own turnovers behind center. Now Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be starting and, well, his NFL debut resulted in three interceptions and a 28-3 Cleveland loss to the Baltimore Ravens. As a result this line has dropped the Browns from a four-point favorite to something approaching a pick’em.

Here’s the thing; the Browns got some thoroughly awful quarterbacking the last time they saw the Steelers and nearly won on the road. Watson’s expected points added (EPA) that game was negative-19.9. Without his fourth quarter fumble, Cleveland likely wins that game. If this team can protect the ball and prevent whatever second half deep ball magic to George Pickens that revives Kenny Pickett, it should win regardless of bad quarterbacking.

Of course, “should” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. DTR hasn’t proven he can protect the ball. The Steeler defense, while not on the same level as the Browns’, is an opportunistic bunch who can turn a blown block into a chain reaction that ends in six points. Ultimately, I’m betting Cleveland’s defense can hassle Pickett and finish what it started in Week 2. I don’t feel great about it, though.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 9-1 (.900)

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Honestly, I might change this before Sunday kicks off. I’m so torn about this team that it was originally in the “hardest favorite to back” section before I flip-flopped (and also realized I didn’t have a true upset in the bunch).

I love what the Seahawks are doing, but there’s no rival that’s a bigger thorn in Pete Carroll’s side than the Rams. The past decade has been littered with Los Angeles (and Saint Louis) teams of varying competence and Seattle is still 6-12 against them since the 2015 season. This team has won only twice on the road against the Rams in the past decade.

Unfortunately, this is not Los Angeles’ finest moment. Matthew Stafford will return from injury, but he’s been a diminished version of himself even when healthy. He’s on pace for his worst season since 2012 and is playing behind an offensive line that might be a bottom-five unit in the NFL. The defense is mostly new starters and ranked 24th in DVOA. Seattle *should* win this game. Seattle might not, because there’s nothing the Rams do better than frustrate Pete Carroll.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 8-2 (.800)