The holiday week allowed a brief climb toward respectability for what’s been a useless slate of prop picks. A 4-2 record in the official plays isn’t quite the success I’ve been looking for, but that makes it three straight weeks over .500 and a chance to climb back to being roughly as useful as a coin flip.
I know, I know. I stink this year.
Well, let’s see if I can keep this modest spring of momentum flowing. All official plays are in bold. My leans follow.
Sam Howell OVER 263.5 passing yards. The Commanders throw a ton because they’re often losing. Howell has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his last five games and will likely once again be tasked with mounting a comeback vs. the Miami Dolphins.
Will Levis UNDER 216.5 passing yards. He’s dealing with an ankle injury and hasn’t gone over 200 yards in any of his last three games.
Jordan Love OVER 227.5 passing yards. Yeah, I’m buying his mid-season come-up.
Pat Freiermuth UNDER 31.5 receiving yards. I saw last week’s game … but so did the Cardinals, who won’t be surprised by Freiermuth’s route tree and have allowed just 37.5 yards per game to tight ends this season.
Cooper Kupp UNDER 56.5 receiving yards. He’s averaged 25 per game over the last five weeks and, while Matthew Stafford is looking better, gets a brutal defensive matchup against the Cleveland Browns.
Najee Harris OVER 54.5 rushing yards. He played a significant role in the Steelers’ new offense last week and now faces an Arizona Cardinals team that gives up 4.5 yards per carry — 26th-best in the NFL.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 62.5 rushing yards. He’s been the focal point of the Patriots offense given all the (gesticulates wildly toward New England’s quarterback depth chart).
Last week: 4-2 (.667)
Season to date: 43-49 (.467)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 13
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These are the bets I like … just not enough to officially include in the section above.
- Desmond Ridder OVER 174.5 passing yards. I don’t love the defensive matchup, but this is a total Ridder hit repeatedly early in the season.
- Isiah Pacheco UNDER 66.5 rushing yards. Normally I take the overs when it comes to rushing totals vs. the Packers. But this is a big number for a player whose carries fluctuate significantly from week to week.
- Courtland Sutton OVER 56.5 receiving yards. He’s got 22 targets over the last three weeks and has re-emerged as the Broncos’ top target.
Last week: 1-1 (.500)
Season to date: 24-23 (.511)
