Folks, I’m just as shocked as you about the passage of time.
We blinked, and it’s already November. All the leaves are gone, there’s a distinct chill to the air and the sun ruthlessly sets past the horizon before we have a chance to enjoy it. That cruel reality means every NFL team has played at least eight games, while some already have nine under their belt. That’s right. We are at the halfway point of the 2023 season. I don’t know how to process this information.
I’ll try and cope by running through For The Win’s 2023 NFL midseason awards. This is my way of setting the table for the league’s best players at this juncture while giving you an idea of the smartest bets on the pro game’s most prestigious honors. As you’ll see, even if a team doesn’t have a frontrunner, squads like the Houston Texans placing all over suggest they have a bright future. Elsewhere, a marquee organization is back on top expressly because they finally took care of their star quarterback.
Let’s talk about all the NFL award favorites before the second half really ramps up. All odds and betting insights courtesy of BetMGM.
Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions (+200)
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Honorable mention: DeMeco Ryans (Houston Texans), Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills)
Campbell is the odds-on to favorite to win his first Coach of the Year honors. He has the highest ticket percentage (38.4 percent), the highest percentage of the handle (41.2 percent), is the odds leader, and is also the biggest liability. It is his trophy to lose.
And I totally get it. Why?
The man has revitalized the Detroit Lions, ladies and gentlemen. Once the NFL’s favorite punching bag for the better part of three decades, Campbell’s NFC North-leading team kicks butt and chews bubble gum at the same time. It’s still a bit unbelievable to witness if I’m being candid. Better yet, these Lions feel like they have real staying power as an NFC contender. And their reign under Campbell may have only just started.
Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Bills (-115)
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Honorable mention: Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos), Joshua Dobbs (Minnesota Vikings)
This one ain’t about obscure statistics or any of that silly mumbo jumbo. Hamlin’s story after suffering a cardiac arrest following a routine tackle last season remains a harrowing one. The fact that he is choosing to continue playing football is frankly remarkable, given everything he’s endured in less than a calendar year. He deserves this award and then some.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks (+300)
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Honorable mention: Jalen Carter (Philadelphia Eagles), Will Anderson (Houston Texans)
With all due respect to the wrecking balls in Philadelphia and Houston, I don’t think this one should be as close as it is. I think Witherspoon is the runaway favorite for the top defensive rookie because he’s probably a solid pick to qualify for an All-Pro team. The lockdown cornerback has been that good on the Seattle boundary. Per Pro Football Focus, the defensive back owns an 80.2 coverage grade. Plus, he’s batted away nine passes, tied for sixth in the NFL. Give Witherspoon his flowers now and be prepared to reward him with more in the future.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (-500)
Honorable mention: Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams), Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)
C.J. Stroud is going to be the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Full stop. The race is over. Barring a wild second-half implosion, Stroud has demonstrated he’s not only the likely top rookie quarterback ever but also that he’s already a league star. The middling Texans have no business flirting with relevancy, yet Stroud is keeping them afloat every Sunday. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a novice signal caller make as many anticipatory and tight-window throws as Stroud this year. That’s the definition of a franchise quarterback, folks. Oh, and he only just turned 22 in early October.
Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns (+185)
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Honorable mention: Micah Parsons (Dallas Cowboys), T.J. Watt (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Garrett is tied with Parsons for odds on winning the title of finest defender, which is weird considering he’s been more impactful for a better defense. Garrett has more sacks, more quarterback hits, and more forced fumbles for a Browns unit that owns one of the most dominant defenses by DVOA in over 40 years. No one wrecks a game like this 6-foot-5 aircraft carrier collapses a quarterback’s pocket. Garrett has been on the verge of earning a Defensive Player of the Year award for a few years now.
This season should end his wait and serve as a glorious breakthrough.
Offensive Player of the Year: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (+140)
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Honorable mention: Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers), A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)
I don’t know how to say this without sounding hyperbolic, but Tyreek Hill puts up actual video game numbers every week. It’s a plain fact. Saying he’s projected to accumulate the first 2,000-yard receiving season ever somehow just doesn’t do him justice. Hill has four games of at least 150 yards this year. He sees an average of just over 10 targets every weekend and is a reliable bet to usually catch eight of them. He is an unstoppable matchup nightmare that opens up the explosive elements of the Dolphins’ offense with his presence alone. To keep this in video game parameters, Hill is a cheat code I’m certain Mike McDaniel really enjoys spamming at helpless defenses.
MVP: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+400)
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Honorable mention: Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
We come to the most ambiguous part of this conversation. I genuinely can’t remember the last time there wasn’t a crystal-clear MVP candidate at the midpoint. I would argue that each of the last 10 MVP campaigns, from Peyton Manning (2013) to Patrick Mahomes (2022), were more than solid selections at their respective halfway marks.
That is not the case this season.
Yes, Hurts is on pace for better numbers than his breakout 2022 that helped the Eagles win the NFC title. But he’s been mostly uneven, contributing to a frustrating offense that only awakes in second halves once it’s been slapped around a bit. Even with his remarkable playmaking, Hurts’ awful 2.6 interception percentage — putting him in “illustrious” company with the struggling Bryce Young — is a fair argument against his case.
In Cincinnati, a finally healthy Joe Burrow has the Bengals humming. Another red-hot second-half stretch where he brings a top-two seed to the Ohio River should suffice as an MVP-caliber resume. But Burrow’s slow start is hard to ignore, even if it wasn’t his fault. It’s a little unfair to reward a player with the finest regular-season honor in the sport after he was a shell of himself for almost half of the year.
All of this makes picking Jackson feel like a default choice. He’s top 10 in expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) composite, per RBDSM.com. He’s 12th in passing yards and fourth in yards per pass attempt (7.7), is ninth in passing success rate, and owns the league’s second-lowest interception rate at 1.2 percent. Oh yeah, and he’s got the narrative, too — the Ravens are tied for the AFC’s first seed and the NFL’s second-best record. Most importantly, Jackson is football’s finest gamebreaker, arguably the greatest dual-threat we’ve ever seen play the quarterback position. No one stresses hapless linebackers and cornerbacks quite like Jackson when he has the ball in his hands. He is an uncommonly gifted blur.
There’s significant room for improvement, and I wouldn’t qualify Jackson’s resume as ironclad. But for now, it’s the strongest among his peers.
