It’s extremely difficult to analyze any NFL Draft in the days, or even years, that follow. Prospects careers take twists and turns. Some flame out immediately and surge upward from those ashes. Others fight for rookie of the year honors and crumble into dust. Most are some semblance of adequate en route to useful but ultimately forgettable careers.
This doesn’t stop the hype cycle that screams from the wake of each draft and echoes off the walls of a cavernous offseason. One of the easiest things to complain about is when a team’s selection fails to match up with a pundit’s big board. Taking someone tagged as a third round talent on Day 1 is an easy way to get lambasted for your judgment before that player even dons his pads.
And that makes it all the more satisfying for maligned general managers when these guys pan out. Let’s look at some of the league’s most notable examples since 2010.
1
LT Kolton Miller, Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Travon Walker (44) pressures Las Vegas Raiders offensive tackle Kolton Miller (74) during the first quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars held off the Las Vegas Raiders 27-20. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Miller was the first pick of the Jon Gruden era and the leadoff batter for a D+ draft, per SB Nation. But while many of the selections under Gruden were disastrous, Miller has risen to his station. He’s been a steady, underrated left tackle that’s been the kind of consistent staple a franchise perpetually stumbling through the woods has needed.
2
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is caught from behind by Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95). Mandatory Credit: Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK
When the Bills jumped from the 12th pick of the 2018 NFL Draft to No. 7, many pundits assumed it was to select UCLA’s Josh Rosen. Nope; Buffalo had its eye on the toolsy flamethrower with accuracy issues from Wyoming.
Allen struggled his first two seasons as a pro, but showed signs of the franchise quarterback he’d soon become. Buffalo acquired Stefon Diggs in 2020 and watched their once maligned first round pick finish in the top five of MVP voting in three of the last four seasons. The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, would be lauded for their Rosen selection at No. 10. Oops.
3
LB Leonard Floyd, Chicago Bears
Dec 19, 2022; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Rams linebacker Leonard Floyd (54) sacks Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Wm. Glasheen-USA TODAY Sports
Floyd was regarded as a second rounder before his stock rose dramatically in the weeks leading up to the 2016 Draft. The Chicago Bears traded up to take him ninth overall, which was either regarded as savvy or gullible depending on who you read. Here’s Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport:
Those rumblings turned out to be more than just predraft smoke, but it’s a big gamble for Da Bears. Floyd bulked up to 244 pounds for the draft process, but he was closer to 230 at Georgia and has a slight frame. That weight may be hard to keep on, and he’s apt to get pushed around without it.
He’ll also be 24 years old when his rookie season begins.
Indeed, Floyd had a muted impact in Chicago. A 2020 release led him to a renaissance as a Los Angeles Ram; he had 29 sacks in three seasons on the west coast (and has 39.5 in his last four) while winning Super Bowl 56. While he didn’t pay off for the Bears, he proved worthy of top 10 consideration.
4
C Mitch Morse, Kansas CIty Chiefs
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills center Mitch Morse (60) prepares to snap the ball to quarterback Josh Allen (17) against the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Morse was only a second round pick, which was still fairly high given the low opinions on center value in the NFL — see Frederick above. SB Nation’s Dan Kadar said he didn’t “see the value” in taking him 49th overall.
But Morse has been a workhorse in nine years and counting in the NFL. He’s started all 126 of his games as a pro and was a vital cog up front as the Buffalo Bills rose to prominence in the AFC East.
5
CB A.J. Terrell, Atlanta Falcons
Sep 13, 2020; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) covers Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (16) during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The Falcons needed defensive help in 2020. Few expected Terrell to be the guy. Here’s CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco:
Worst Pick: I know they needed a corner, but did they force the pick on A.J. Terrell a bit? I might have taken a different corner there, but it definitely fills a need.
Terrell was an All-Pro in 2021. While he hasn’t returned to that level in the two years since, he remains a foundational piece of the Atlanta defense.
6
OL Tyler Smith, Dallas Cowboys
Oct 2, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Washington Commanders defensive end Montez Sweat (90) and Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Tyler Smith (73) in action during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s wrap with another criticized Cowboys’ offensive line pick. NFL.com’s Chad Reuter gave his selection at No. 24 a “C” in his 2022 grades, which is roughly as low as it gets in an era where no one wants their cold takes exposed.
He was supposed to be a project. Instead he started 17 games at tackle as a rookie, then moved to guard as a 2023 All-Pro.
