McConkey has all the tools to be a solid wide receiver in the NFL. But solid wideouts can be found in the middle of the draft. McConkey is on the verge of breaking into first-round pick consideration amidst a stacked class of wideouts.

McConkey’s rise has been predicated on his ability to get open. His precise routes and separation skills were an asset for a Georgia team that leaned into the passing game a bit more in 2023, even as McConkey and star tight end Brock Bowers missed time due to injury.

But the versatile wideout was always more of a supporting piece in a lineup filled with NFL talent than a star. While health issues robbed him of what would have been his most productive college season, he was still on pace for just 57 catches in 17 games last fall. He’s tough as nails, but will he be strong enough to counterattack press coverage? Will his separation skills translate at the next level?

McConkey has all the tools to be a solid NFL wideout. But if a team selects him on Day 1, they expect him to be more than that. And that may be a level the two-time national champion can’t quite sustain.

This one hurts. Penix was one of college football’s most electric players. He was nearly impossible to root against, whether it was upsetting Penn State while at Indiana or leading the Huskies to the 2023-24 national championship game.

But there’s a reason he’s a fringe first-round candidate in a draft where six quarterbacks could be selected on Day 1. Penix has a litany of flaws that could prevent him from repeating his NCAA success. His career as a Hoosier was derailed by injury. His career at Washington was boosted by a roster loaded with prospects who’ll hear their names called in this year’s draft.

His breakthrough 2023 wasn’t the breakthrough the Huskies success would have you believe. He torched some bad defenses and struggled against others; over his last 10 games of 2023 he threw 16 touchdowns against eight interceptions and had an NFL passer rating of just 90.8. In that stretch, he faced only two defenses that ranked in the top 36 when it came to passing efficiency allowed; one was Michigan, who bludgeoned him into his worst game of the season and walked away with a national title.

We might as well throw the other veteran Pac-12 quarterback with moderate first-round buzz into the mix. Nix was revelatory in 2023, rising from good to great with one of the most efficient seasons in college football. He led the FBS in passing touchdowns (45) and threw only three interceptions. His 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt were second only to Heisman Trophy winner and potential top-3 pick Jayden Daniels.

But, like Penix, he did so against a soft curve. Oregon faced a single top-36 passing defense in 2023 — and that was Washington, who forced Nix into his two least efficient games of the season (in fairness, he was still pretty good, throwing for 556 yards and five touchdowns). One of the reasons he was able to lead the FBS in completion rate (77.4) was thanks to a playbook that emphasized short, low-risk passes. His 6.9 air yards per attempt were sixth-lowest among 116 FBS quarterbacks last year.

There’s a place for Nix in the NFL. Teams can build around efficient short-range quarterbacks; Daniel Jones averaged just 6.4 yards per pass in 2022 (second-lowest among qualified passers) and the New York Giants still managed to win a playoff game that year. But there’s a limit to how much a team can do with that kind of quarterback. Unless Nix can prove he can pair his elite efficiency with a game-breaking deep game, he may not rise above the station of “valued backup.”

Wiggins was a star at Clemson. He had 13 passes defensed in 2022, then effectively got quarterbacks to stop throwing his way in 2023 (20 fewer targets but a passer rating of just 44.4 allowed on those 41 throws). He’s a boundary cornerback with elite speed — a 4.28-second 40 at the combine! — and a solid college resume.

So why is he a risk? Because his 173 pound frame at 6-foot-1 would make him one of the skinniest players in the NFL. The Washington Commanders took a similar risk on a productive blue chip player with a similar build last April when they drafted Emmanuel Forbes 16th overall. He got to the NFL and gave up a 103.0 passer rating and missed more than 15 percent of his tackles, per Pro Football Reference, as a rookie as part of one of the league’s worst defenses.

It’s obviously difficult to make a one-to-one comparison between these players, but it’s been enough to slide Wiggins down draft boards this spring. A secondary needy team will happily snap him up in the late first or early second round. He could be a massive bargain — or he could struggle to bring his slight frame to cover a new bigger, stronger and faster class of wideouts.

Suamataia looks like an NFL cornerstone. He has solid size (6-foot-4, 326 pounds) and arm length to fend off pass rushers. He was an All-Big 12 honoree in BYU’s first season in the league and allowed just two sacks and six quarterback hurries across 381 pass blocking snaps last year, per PFF.

It’s fair to wonder, however, if he has the lateral quickness to keep up in a league filled with explosive edge rushers. Suamataia is a marvel in straight lines, and running behind him off-tackle or on pitches is an easy path to yardage. But he’s struggled to showcase the first step ability to maintain leverage on speed rushers, which is a problem in a league where he’ll face monsters with 4.5/4.6-second 40 times on a regular basis.

The plus side is he’s a top-level athlete. This explosiveness suggests there’s a path to redirecting that fluid movement so he can redirect guys like Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt. But Suamataia didn’t take part in the agility drills at the combine, which may leave some unanswered questions for scouts who want to know more about his ability to change direction or shift his weight when confronted with a diverse set of pass-rushing moves.

Lloyd averaged more than seven yards per carry last season. He’s rated as PFF’s most elusive running back in the 2024 NFL Draft class. There’s an outside chance he’s the first tailback selected from a good, not great, crop.

Despite a superstar ability to shed tackles, Lloyd may be destined for a platoon role in the NFL. He’s a boom-or-bust runner whose search for big plays can lead to missed lanes and losses where modest gains should be. His college fumbles suggest he’s perpetually one carry away from a benching. His presence in the passing game was non-existent for much of his college career, and he only had seven catches his first eight games of 2023.

As a prospect, Lloyd’s future resembles his running style. He’s a risky bet that could pay off massive dividends. Or he could wind up getting six carries per game as a player whose offensive coordinator doesn’t quite trust him enough.