Typically, our resident NFL betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag (a title he proudly bestowed upon himself) sees his picks fall off as betting lines catch up to the results on the field over time. Last year’s hot start began to rattle and shake after three weeks. But this year’s hot start?
Friends, it’s hit five weeks with no sign of slowing down.
Another winning week pushed our guy’s record to 13-5 on his locks with a wicked +17 unit profit over that stretch. His most confident picks are batting 1.000, and if you’ve jumped aboard for the ride, well, congrats on the money. We’re back with more picks for Week 6 and jumping right back into it. His words and analysis are in blockquotes. My (less successful, but still decent!) picks follow.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 at the Cleveland Browns (three units)
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
I am sticking with the process that has been working for me. I made the lines in advance and I have found the biggest gap I’ve even seen since I started using this handicapping system last season. I made a team a 12 point favorite and when I checked the line they are only laying 4.5. That is a full touchdown of value!!!
Of course I’m talking about the San Francisco 49ers. They are a machine right now. They are rolling over teams and playing some great football.
They travel to Cleveland this weekend. What about the Browns makes the oddsmakers believe they are going to put up a fight? They rolled over for Baltimore; I think they do the same here. Lay anything under a touchdown because this one is going to be over by halftime.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: New York Giants +15.5 at the Buffalo Bills (two units)
Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Sometimes as sports bettors, when using this handicapping system, we are going to come across some “hold your nose and bet” type of spots. This is certainly one of them. [Ed. note: You realize you can just … not bet on the Giants, right?] I made Buffalo a 10-point favorite against the Giants. They are actually laying 14. I can’t pass up two touchdowns and some glimmer of hope that the Giants can keep it close.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Teaser! Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 vs. the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles -2 at the New York Jets (two units)
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
I am going to give out my first teaser in this column because we are set up beautifully for a one-up, one-down Wong teaser. I like the Chargers in this spot as an underdog, but getting 2.5 points doesn’t excite me. Adding six more gets us through the key numbers of three and seven.
We are going to tease Los Angeles up to 8.5 and Philadelphia down to -2 at the Jets. I think the Eagles’ D-Line can get to Zach Wilson and force him to make a few mistakes. Philly is good and I don’t think the Jets have enough firepower to keep up with them if Jalen Hurts gets them scoring early.
Scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667), +3 units
Scumbag locks year to date: 13-5 (.722), +17 units
My non-scumbag locks: Miami Dolphins -13.5 vs. the Carolina Panthers (one unit), Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 vs. the Denver Broncos (one unit), Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears OVER 43 points (two units), Jacksonville Jaguars -4 vs. the Indianapolis Colts (one unit) and Los Angeles Rams -6 over the Arizona Cardinals (one unit)
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My personal bets hit their first sub-.500 week thanks in part to the revival of the Bengals’ offense and sudden, shocking competency of the Chicago Bears’ coaching staff. So while I’m still solidly profitable in the long run, I’m working up quite a gap between myself and the guy I pay to write these columns in Michelob Ultra and vape pens.
That’s a concern, as this year we’ve got a fine bottle of party liquor on the line for whomever finishes the regular season with a bigger profit. While I’d prefer not to buy this guy a bottle of 12-year Islay malt just to see it get mixed with 5 Hour Energy and whatever edibles happened to be on sale that week, I understand there’s no shame losing to a house on fire.
The Scumbag is currently 2008 Steph Curry at Davidson. At some point he’ll turn back into NBA pro Jimmer Fredette, but for now all I can do it take my beating and be impressed.
In that spirit, I’m gonna follow his lead and take another two-touchdown home favorite. The Panthers have yet to cover on the road, and while a two-touchdown spread is their largest yet, I’m confident in the Dolphins’ ability to beat up on an inferior team (see Week 3’s 70-20 starching of the Broncos). The Panthers aren’t fundamentally different than the Giants, who lost by 15 points in Miami Gardens last week.
Oh hey, speaking of the Broncos, they’ve played one team with a winning record this season and lost by 50. Their defense is historically bad and now has to face Patrick Mahomes.
I’m also rooting for points when the Vikings and Bears stage the battle of who could care less. Chicago seems to understand it can build an offense around DJ Moore and Minnesota lacks the cornerback talent to stop him for all four quarters. Not having Justin Jefferson hurts Minnesota, but Kirk Cousins is capable of putting up big, empty numbers in what could be an audition tape for the New York Jets.
Los Angeles presented a proof of concept for its Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua passing game. That only resulted in 14 points against the Eagles, but the Cardinals’ defense presents less of a threat. Add in Joshua Dobbs’ declining returns as the tape library on him builds, and you’ve got enough evidence for me to back Sean McVay over Jonathan Gannon.
Non-scumbag locks last week: 1-2 (.333), -1 unit
Non-scumbag locks year to date: 11-5-1 (.677), +6 units
