Look, I told y’all to get onboard with the Scumbag Locks early. For the second year in a row our guy is 6-1 through two weeks of NFL play, furthering the premise that our gambling sherpa’s carefully crafted set of rules works best as teams shake off the rust of the preseason and settle into their playbooks. Feel free to question his results once the holiday season arrives — lord knows I do — but when it comes to September football the Rhode Island Scumbag is hotter than sea shanty TikTok in 2020 (and with a similar shelf life, if last year’s returns are any indication).
Well, he’s back for Week 3 with even more confidence. Can’t even say it’s unearned this time. There will come a cold stretch where I can roast my boy knowing full well I have editorial autonomy over this column and there’s not a thing he can do about it. But he’s hitting 85 percent of his plays, and thus that time is not today.
Here’s what he’s got to say about the third week of the NFL season. As always, his words are in blockquotes.
There is nothing better than a perfect week betting the NFL. I feel like I should have a perfect season going right now, but I’m not going to complain about 6-1.
My only regret is going very heavy betting the Patriots kicker to make a bunch of field goals. The Patriots offense was so bad, that they were barely even in FG range. I learned a lot this week, and I’m looking forward to focusing on a few games and trying to keep this streak going.
The Scumbag Lock of the YEAR: New England Patriots -2.5 over the New York Jets (four units)
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
This is the easiest bet of my life. I would have to lose 10 of these four-unit whoppers in a row to even come close to cutting into my lifetime profit betting against the Jets in this spot. The Patriots own them.
It is a simple bet and I think they will win by double digits. Vegas got this one wrong. We will get it right.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Tennessee Titans +1 first quarter result over the Cleveland Browns (one unit)
USA Today Sports
The Titans are a really good first quarter team. They were the best in the NFL last year, but I didn’t jump on the trend until Week 9 or 10. I’m jumping on it early this year to hopefully get the best of the number.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Miami Dolphins -6 over the Denver Broncos (two units)
Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK
Sean Payton, you broke one of the most universal laws of coaching this offseason. Coaching is a fraternity; a brotherhood. You don’t badmouth the brotherhood.
He committed a cardinal coaching sin by going on record and insulting Nathaniel Hacket’s coaching ability this offseason. He is paying the price now by being 0-2 and dealing with the same garbage QB. Denver has no chance of winning this game. The only question is if they backdoor cover.
I’m betting they don’t. Wise up, Sean.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part IV: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions OVER 45.5 points (one unit)
Detroit Free Press
I am playing Ford Field overs until proven otherwise. Simple. Degenerate. Logic.
It is worth noting that there is a very solid price on the Vikings to win their division. I got that bet in at +480 Vikings to win NFC North. They are 0-2 but haven’t played a divisional opponent yet. I think the North is still wide open.
Scumbag locks last week: 3-0 (1.000), +4 units
Scumbag locks year to date: 6-1 (.857), +5 units
My non-scumbag locks: Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over the Carolina Panthers (three units), Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 over the Chicago Bears (one unit), Philadelphia Eagles -5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (one unit) and Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 44 points (one unit)
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
The Seahawks’ offense came alive to beat the Lions on the road. This was an important proof of concept for another year of the Geno Smith experience. Now he returns home to face a Panthers team with a solid enough defense but the league’s 30th-ranked offense. Carolina has done little to help speed Bryce Young’s development along, saddling him with depth-caliber wideouts who can’t get open. He’s had vital support from the run game, but now his tailbacks will face a defense that’s allowed 2.9 yards per carry through two games this season.
Despite giving up 30-plus points each of the last two weeks, this feels like a get-right game for a defense that’s been punching below its weight class. Seattle’s offensive line rebounded well last week but the Panthers have the chops to keep this one from getting too far off the rails — something like 27-13 feels right.
The Chiefs, even at a huge number, are a solid play because the Bears are an enormous mess in nearly all the ways a franchise can be an enormous mess. But I swapped them out at -12.5 to roll with the team they beat in the Super Bowl, the Eagles, who are laying five points on the road against a less talented Buccaneers team. Then I added them back, because I am bad at decisions.
Betting an under a week after 13 games hit the over feels a little disconcerting. Betting the under in a Kenny Pickett game, however, feels like common sense. The points in this one will mostly be generated by whatever Sportscenter plays Davante Adams and George Pickens create in a contest which could easily feature double-digit sacks. I don’t trust either of these offenses, and I don’t trust the Steelers’ ability to score multiple defensive touchdowns again.
Non-scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667), +1 unit
Non-scumbag locks year to date: 4-2 (.667), +2 units
