The NBA finally revealed details of its inaugural in-season tournament Saturday, making what was previously a mystery feel very real.
The tournament begins with group play on Nov. 3 and leads into an eight-team knockout stage, which continues until a champion is crowned in Las Vegas on Dec. 9. All games except the championship count toward regular-season records.
Richard Jefferson starred in an explainer video that still left some fans confused, but it’s a really simple concept. The 15 teams in each conference are broken up into three groups of five teams. Each team plays the other teams in their group for a total of four games. The teams with the best records from each group advance to the knockout stages, as well as a wild card with the next best record in each conference, for a total of eight teams.
Now, how serious NBA teams and veterans take tournament games — which are designated for every Tuesday and Friday from Nov. 3-28 — remains to be seen. But if we’re to assume they’ll show up and play to win, the field of teams in the knockout rounds won’t be much different from the playoffs.
However, with just three groups in each conference — decided via draw based on last season’s records — not every team can advance. So I had a little fun and created hypothetical odds and predictions for each group. First, let’s get into which teams have the easiest and most difficult paths to advance.
Best bets to advance from group play
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Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics
Boston lost a lot of toughness this offseason with the trades of Marcus Smart and Grant Williams, but that impact won’t likely be felt until the playoffs, if at all. The Celtics are still as talented as any team in the East, and they’re easily the best team in Group C, which only has one other playoff team from last season — the Brooklyn Nets, who were only in that position because of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Western Conference: Denver Nuggets
Denver’s path in Group B isn’t necessarily easy, but the defending champs are just that good. They’re paired with teams like the LA Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks, who can all go on deep playoff runs if healthy, but those teams all have major question marks the Nuggets simply don’t have.
Hardest groups to pick from
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Eastern Conference: Group A
If James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers come to some sort of positive resolution, they’ll be the favorite from this group, but that doesn’t seem likely right now. And I’m not sure a Harden-less Sixers team is better than the Cleveland Cavaliers or Atlanta Hawks. Either way, those three playoff teams and the Indiana Pacers, who were the first team on the outside of the play-in tournament and improved in the offseason, make this a difficult group to figure out. No team stands out from the others.
Western Conference: Group A
The West’s No. 2 seed from last season, the Memphis Grizzlies, are in this group. So are the conference finalist Los Angeles Lakers and semifinalist Phoenix Suns. I think the winner of this group will come down to the latter two teams because of Ja Morant’s suspension, but the Grizzlies can’t be completely dismissed and the Utah Jazz will be pesky too. Depending on what happens with the Damian Lillard saga, the Blazers could even sneak in a couple wins.
Eastern Conference Hypothetical Odds & Predictions
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Group A
Philadelphia 76ers -105
Cleveland Cavaliers +110
Atlanta Hawks +140
Indiana Pacers +250
Detroit Pistons +500
Prediction: Cavaliers win group
As I mentioned above, I think the 76ers will end up as the favorites based on last season’s results and because James Harden is still currently on the roster. But I personally believe this group will come down to the Cavs and Hawks. While those teams don’t have a single force as dominant as MVP Joel Embiid, I like their top-to-bottom rosters better than the Sixers, who will also be adjusting to a new head coach.
Group B
Milwaukee Bucks -110
New York Knicks +100
Miami Heat +110
Washington Wizards +540
Charlotte Hornets +560
Prediction: Bucks win group
Miami stunned Milwaukee in the playoffs, but the Heat lost some key pieces in the offseason and aren’t really a regular season team anyway. The only other team I would give a chance is the Knicks, but as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy, the Bucks are the team to beat.
Group C
Boston Celtics -200
Chicago Bulls +200
Brooklyn Nets +220
Toronto Raptors +260
Orlando Magic +400
Prediction: Celtics win group
Again, Boston has the easiest path to advance in the East, with its biggest competition being Brooklyn, Chicago and Toronto, all teams with major questions entering the season. I’m expecting each of those three to be fringe play-in tournament teams and even Orlando could find itself in that range. Boston, though, will be at the top of the conference again.
Western Conference Hypothetical Odds & Predictions
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Group A
Phoenix Suns -105
L.A. Lakers +100
Memphis Grizzlies +175
Utah Jazz +400
Portland Trail Blazers +700
Prediction: Suns win group
Who knows how long it will take for the new-look Suns to hit their stride but I trust they’ll be able to win games through that process. The Lakers, on the other hand, have to incorporate new pieces while LeBron James is potentially still recovering from the foot injury that hampered him last postseason. The Grizzlies won’t have the suspended Ja Morant for this part of the season.
Group B
Denver Nuggets -140
LA Clippers +120
New Orleans Pelicans +150
Dallas Mavericks +200
Houston Rockets +700
Prediction: Nuggets win group
If the Clippers are healthy, which is never a guarantee, they’ll have something to say about my claim of the Nuggets having the easiest path. But that just speaks to how much I like the Nuggets, because this group isn’t easy by any stretch. As long as Denver is locked in by this point in the season and recovered from any potential championship hangover, they’ll be tough to beat.
Group C
Golden State Warriors -100
Sacramento Kings +105
Minnesota Timberwolves +200
Oklahoma City Thunder +260
San Antonio Spurs +800
Prediction: Kings win group
This isn’t any declaration of the Kings being better than Golden State, especially not after the Warriors beat Sacramento in the playoffs. This is more my belief that the younger Kings will take the regular season a little more serious than the veteran Warriors. And Group C is filled with young, hungry upstarts. But also, the Kings could very well turn out to be better than the Warriors, because they’re really good.
Championship
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Prediction: Sacramento Kings over Boston Celtics
Who knows how the actual odds for this tournament turn out, but I’m guessing the Kings won’t be among the favorites win it all. But in a single-elimination format that doesn’t involve a seven-game series, I would love the value on a young team that’s now battle-tested after last postseason, has some continuity going into this season and will potentially go harder than some of the more veteran teams. I don’t think Sacramento is the best team in the NBA, but I do think it has a good case to win the inaugural in-season tourney.
