Who’s going to lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2023? What about rushing touchdowns?
These are tough questions to answer considering last year’s rushing leader, Josh Jacobs, isn’t even in camp right now. And the leader before him, Jonathan Taylor, is also away from his team and seeking a trade.
The state of the running back position is in flux as the value of top players continues to be put into question. But nothing speaks more to how valuable some of these guys actually are quite like a team that will hand the ball off to them 300 times in a season.
The guys who consistently receive top workloads and don’t have to compete with quarterbacks who are too great (or too inept) are the players I’m eyeing in 2023. And we can’t forget about running quarterbacks either.
Let’s make some predictions.
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Most rushing yards
AP Photo/Nick Wass
Prince’s Pick: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2800)
Oddsmakers determined Nick Chubb has the best chance to lead the league in rushing in 2023, and I can see why they went that way but I absolutely hate rolling with the favorite.
So let’s spice things up a bit and go with Harris. He hasn’t broken out yet in two years with the Steelers, averaging fewer than four yards per carry for his career, but it isn’t for a lack of opportunity. No player has more carries since 2021, and with Kenny Pickett’s expected leap in year two, things could open up for Harris on the ground — the same way they did for Josh Jacobs last year. It better, or Harris is at risk of losing his job.
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Favorite rushing yards over/under
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union
Prince’s Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 750.5 yards
If Ekeler stays healthy, I don’t see how he doesn’t decimate this over. And he hasn’t given us much reason over the past two seasons to doubt his durability. He eclipsed 200 carries and 900 yards each year, and injuries to the team’s receivers didn’t slow him a bit last season.
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Most rushing touchdowns
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Prince’s Pick: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (+1000)
With a passing offense that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL last season, Chubb still found his way to 12 rushing touchdowns on the year, which were tied for fifth in the NFL.
Assuming Cleveland’s offense takes a step forward in Deshaun Watson’s first full season, I expect Chubb to receive even more opportunities to crack the goal line and make good on these odds.
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Favorite rushing touchdowns over/under
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Prince’s Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 6.5
McCaffrey is my pick to finish the season as the fantasy football RB1, and that doesn’t happen without a strong touchdown — though some will inevitably come on catches. I don’t think he’ll lead the league, but this offense is designed to produce some big plays on the ground and McCaffrey should easily eclipse six touchdowns after scoring six in 11 games with the 49ers last season.
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Most quarterback rushing yards
AP Photo/Adam Hunger
Prince’s Pick: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+350)
Jackson only played in 12 games last season and still finished as the second-leading rusher among quarterbacks, trailing Justin Fields who led all QBs by a wide margin.
Fields is the favorite to repeat in 2023, but I’m anticipating some of his new weaponry in the passing game to ease the burden of him having to leave the pocket. Jackson, meanwhile, I view as a more natural runner who should have more space to operate in a new system.
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