One thing I appreciate about baseball is it doesn’t just humble the athletes playing the game, it humbles the prognosticators who think they know what to expect too.
Last season featured a World Series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers that I promise you nobody expected. It’s that type of silliness that gives me the confidence I need to throw some stuff at the wall and see what sticks, because I won’t for a second pretend to know every single thing going on with the sport.
However, I am a fan and I do have thoughts. And I couldn’t let this season start without making my own predictions, so here we go. These are my 2024 picks for each division winner, along with AL and NL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year.
Odds from BetMGM
ALSO READ: The best bets on win total over/unders for all 30 MLB teams in 2024
AL MVP: Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (+1000)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Seager only played in 119 games last season and still finished second in MVP voting. That’s how hot the World Series MVP’s bat was all season. If he can maintain that level of play over more games, the path to a regular season MVP is clear with Shohei Ohtani changing leagues.
NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (+900)
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
Look, I know designated hitters don’t win MVP, but a few have finished in second place. If there’s someone who can finally get the DH over the hump, it’s Ohtani. And knowing what he’s done at the plate as a two-way player, just imagine what he can do when he only has to worry about hitting — in this Dodgers lineup. Reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. is obviously a big threat to his chances — as well as a couple of Ohtani’s own teammates.
AL Cy Young: Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins (+1100)
Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Lopez is trending towards a career year in 2024 after throwing in a career-high innings pitched last season and finishing as the AL’s second-leader in strikeouts. He was phenomenal in the playoffs too.
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (+425)
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Strider’s stuff is filthy. He’s going to easily lead the majors in strikeouts, and if the spring is any indication, we can expect his ERA to come way down too.
AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter, Texas Rangers (+300)
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Carter showed what he could do in limited time last season. So, though his teammate, Wyatt Langford, is stealing much of the recent ROY hype, I think Carter is primed for a big season in a lineup that offers plenty of protection.
NL Rookie of the Year: Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers (+600)
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
With his combination of speed and pop, Chourio has a chance to have a Corbin Carroll-like impact in his first year.
AL East Winner: Baltimore Orioles (+180)
Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
After adding Corbin Burnes to solidify their starting rotation, the Orioles are one of baseball’s most complete teams. The New York Yankees have an intimidating lineup, but injuries are already making them tough to trust.
AL Central Winner: Minnesota Twins (-125)
Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
I considered the Cleveland Guardians here, because I think they’re better than the odds suggest, but I think Minnesota’s lineup will be a little more steady from game-to-game and give the Twins a slight edge in the division.
AL West Winner: Texas Rangers (+225)
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Texas closed the gap on Houston last season, losing the division only by tiebreaker. Fresh off a surprise World Series title, I think they can finish the job this year. Especially once the rotation gets healthy later in the summer.
NL East: Atlanta Braves (-275)
Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
The Braves were a juggernaut last season, and that’s not going to change in 2024. Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to push for another MVP, the lineup around him remains dangerous and the pitching staff is one of the best in baseball.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs (+190)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images
I had a hard time deciding between the aging St. Louis Cardinals, the young Cincinnati Reds and the Cubs, who split the difference. But while Chicago has a lower floor than St. Louis, I think it has the most upside of any of these teams.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (-550)
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
Just when you think the Dodgers couldn’t possibly be more super-charged than they already are, they find a way to get better. This team is stacked and not worth even a consideration of betting against.
World Series Winner: Dodgers (+350)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Yeah, not exactly going on a limb here. But this is the best team in baseball and they’re due for another title after three straight 100-win seasons have come up just short of hardware. I expect this team to roll through the regular season again, make any necessary additions at the deadline and finish the job this time around.
