It was just five days ago that New York Mets fans were fretting as owner Steve Cohen tweeted angry words about Steven Matz’s agent, with die-hards wondering how much more damage he would do on social media.
But five days later? Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha signed … and on Monday, three-time Cy Young-winner Max Scherzer signed with the franchise.
This was no ordinary deal. Scherzer will reportedly receive a three-year deal worth a whopping $130 million. Per USA TODAY Sports, he’s also getting an opt-out after two years AND a full no-trade clause.
All of that for a pitcher turning 38 in July! Which for Mets fans — full disclosure, I am one — is VERY nervous-making. Let’s dive into the stats here and see how this move might turn out:
1
So about that age thing ...
The deal will cover Scherzer's age 37-39 seasons
Since 1980, Randy Johnson is the only pitcher to put up more than 15.0 WAR in his age 37-39 seasons, and only 16 pitchers in that span have averaged more than 3.0 WAR per year at that age https://t.co/EYHgh1FueE https://t.co/70YqCArqZT pic.twitter.com/T75hjyLgG4
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) November 29, 2021
This is the stat that makes me the most nervous. Cohen and the Mets may have just shelled out a mammoth deal for a pitcher who falls off a cliff sometime in the next couple of years. Considering there are younger options out there who could have some big years ahead of them, that obviously comes with some serious risk.
The 37-year-old Max Scherzer would easily be the oldest player in MLB history to sign a $100M contract.
It's currently 33-year-old Kevin Brown when he signed the first $100M deal in MLB history back in 1998. https://t.co/0vNozIYwU1 pic.twitter.com/OUpJc6q8yC
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 29, 2021
That said …
2
Steve Cohen is very, very rich
Steve Cohen is the richest #MLB owner in baseball, worth about $14.5 billion, and paid the largest purchase price for the #Mets at $2.475 billion.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) October 30, 2020
This is something we need to remember here. Dude paid $2.475 BILLION for the Mets, but he’s worth something around seven times that. He’s said he was going to spend, and he’s spending! So it’s not about the amount of money being spent here in a way. It’s about the number of years here, which isn’t too many if Scherzer does take a step back.
3
His 2020 numbers don't lie
From USA TODAY Sports:
Scherzer, 37, made his eighth consecutive All-Star Game appearance this summer and led the league in WHIP (0.86) and walks per nine innings (1.8). He led the National League in strikeouts for three straight seasons (2016-18) and helped the Nationals win the 2019 World Series.
Since 2013, his first Cy Young season, Scherzer has 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a 149 ERA+ (100 is a weighted average).
Although Scherzer will turn 38 in July, he led the majors in Opp BA, WHIP and was 2nd to Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes in ERA, Opp OPS, and strikeout rate.
Scherzer set career bests in ERA and WHIP in 2021. pic.twitter.com/2L2RWO4KWq
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 29, 2021
This is no ordinary 37-year-old we’re talking about here. We’re talking about a pitcher who has proven age is just a number. That’s a positive.
4
This contract blows everyone else's out of the water
Scherzer $43.3M AAV will break the record AAV of $36M by Gerrit Cole. That’s a 20 percent increase points out @JeffPassan As a member of the union’s negotiating committee that’s a coup for Max #mets
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 29, 2021
If Max Scherzer’s deal gets done as the Mets expect, the average annual value will be somewhere in the range of $43 million a year — a staggering jump of nearly 20% from the current record AAV of $36 million held by Gerrit Cole. It is a huge number, especially for a 37-year-old.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 29, 2021
Just absurd. That’s the Steve Cohen advantage I was referring to above.
5
Scherzer's making even more money than you think in the next three years
He’s got some deferred money coming his way! This has nothing to do with whether this was worth it or not, but it bears mentioning.
Assuming Scherzer's deal is three equal payments ($43 million a year), he will make $58 million a year in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
That's because the Nationals owe him $15 million a year for his 2015-2017 seasons.
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) November 29, 2021
6
He's making more than SOME TEAMS
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. Again, so much money.
Estimated current opening day payrolls, per @baseballpro:
Seattle Mariners: $57 million
Cleveland Guardians: $46.7 million
Max Scherzer: $43.3 million
Pittsburgh Pirates: $40.2 million
Baltimore Orioles: $37 million— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 29, 2021
Max Scherzer's $43.3M AAV is currently larger than the current 2022 payrolls of:
▫️ Pittsburgh Pirates ($40.2M)
▫️ Baltimore Orioles ($37M)(via @baseballpro) pic.twitter.com/vXT98crsyQ
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 29, 2021
7
The Mets need some starting pitcher stability
Again, will they find it in a starter who has appeared in 27 games or more in all but two of his Major League seasons?
The Mets used 19 different starting pitchers in 2021, tied with the Dodgers for the most in baseball.
In total, New York used 42 different pitchers last year, tied with the Orioles for most in MLB. pic.twitter.com/1xkT0uiGdA
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 29, 2021
Will it work out? We’ll see.
