Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column for BetFTW senior writer Prince J. Grimes to give his thoughts on what’s trending in sports betting.
For this week’s edition of Winner’s Circle, I’m going back to my roots of list-style observations from games over the weekend. And I want to start with the Baltimore Ravens because what they did to the Detroit Lions Sunday was a massacre, and it’s hard to know what exactly should be the biggest takeaway from their 38-6 romp. Does it mean the Lions are frauds or does it mean the Ravens are even better than we thought?
As is the case with most things in the NFL, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Sure, the Ravens played up to the potential a lot of us thought they had going into the season — against a playoff-caliber opponent. And the Lions were outclassed across the board. But these were two extremes I don’t expect these teams to replicate each time they play another good team. It didn’t help that Baltimore was playing a second straight game at home while the Lions were on the road for a second straight game.
The bigger takeaway to me was how amazing Lamar Jackson looked. He was 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. He completed 21 of 27 passes for 357 yards and three touchdowns, and added a fourth touchdown on the ground. He was poised and accurate. His MVP odds jumped up to +700 at BetMGM, which are now fourth-best behind Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts. Jackson has been as good as any of them — if not better — and should now be considered firmly in the MVP conversation.
All odds are via BetMGM
Miami is only good at punching down
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A team I am starting to draw conclusions about is the Miami Dolphins. Their 31-17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles dropped their record to 1-2 as underdogs this season, with the only win coming in a Week 1 nail-biter against the Los Angeles Chargers (who currently have a losing record).
Against teams with winning records, though, the Dolphins are 0-2, and they’ve failed to cover the spread each time, losing by a combined 42 points to the Eagles and Buffalo Bills. They haven’t looked nearly as explosive against those teams, which was predictable, but the extent of that drop-off has been a real problem considering how underwhelming their defense is. Without those large chunk plays, the Dolphins are just an extremely average team.
At 5-2, they still have top-five Super Bowl odds, but I wouldn’t be touching those right now. Miami can beat up on bad teams but it still has to prove it can hang with the big dogs.
KC is still the team to beat in the AFC
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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense came alive Sunday, throwing for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-17 win over the Chargers. And while it’s not exactly tough to light up the Chargers, it does have to be terrifying for the league to see the Chiefs explode like that given how good they’re also playing on defense.
Since losing their season opener to Detroit, the Chiefs are 6-0, including 5-1 ATS, and their defense has allowed the eighth-fewest yards and third-fewest points per game this season. As the Bills appear broken with a bad loss to the New England Patriots, and the Dolphins look unfit for this weight class, and the Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars seek consistency from week-to-week, it’s clear the Chiefs are still the standard in the AFC – and maybe the entire NFL.
KC’s -120 odds to win the AFC’s top seed are way ahead of anyone else (the Dolphins are second at +450), and with the ninth-easiest remaining schedule, I don’t expect them to slow down as we approach the second half of the season.
Quick hits
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- The Pittsburgh Steelers are doing that thing again when they play an entire season of uninspiring football only for us to look up at the end of the year and see them right there in the thick of the playoff picture. I did not have them beating the Los Angeles Rams Sunday, but they did and now they’re somehow 4-2 with three straight home games coming up, including two against teams with losing records. Mike Tomlin is 16-1 for Coach of the Year. I’m just saying.
- The Atlanta Falcons beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a field goal to take sole possession of first place in the NFC South, but does anybody really feel like they have a great grasp on which team in this division is the best? That was an ugly game that could’ve gone either way, and it’s hard to come away from it impressed with either team. For my money, I still like the New Orleans Saints at +200 to win the South.
