Wagering on horse racing can feel like a foreign language for sports bettors who aren’t used to picking out ponies.
Knowing which trainers to back and understanding what makes a great contender can all be a lot to process if you’re unfamiliar with the sport.
Fortunately there are only a few things bettors must absolutely know before placing a wager on the Kentucky Derby. We’ve compiled four of the biggest trends below to help you make your picks.
You can find updated odds for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby here. BetFTW’s Prince Grimes spoke with FanDuel TV analyst Christina Blacker about her betting advice as well.
Best of luck at the track.
Watch the Kentucky Derby on Fubo
The favorite wins nearly a third of the time
Jockey Sonny Leon aboard Rich Strike after winning the 148th Kentucky Derby on May 7, 2022.
Rich Strike And Jockey Sonny Leon
Don’t feel bad if you just want to put everything on Forte (9-2). Betting the favorite has been moderately profitable over the last 115 races. The favorite has won 40 of those contests, coming in first 34.78 percent of the time.
But it’s been a few years since that’s been the case at Churchill Downs. Justify (3-1) was the last favorite to win back in 2018. Long-shots have been dominating the last few years:
- 2022: Rich Strike wins at 80-1 (Zandon favored at 3-1)
- 2021: Mandaloun wins at 40-1 (Essential Quality favored at 6-5)
- 2020: Authentic wins at 9-1 (Tiz the Law favored at 4-5)
- 2019: Country House wins at 65-1 (Maximum Security favored at 4-1)
Best and worst post positions
LOUISVILLE-MAY 3: The field explodes out of the starting gate during the 128th Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on May 3, 2002 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Tapit Trice was already considered a Kentucky Derby favorite before Monday’s post position draw. Then he hit the jackpot by landing the No. 5 spot in the starting gate — which has produced the most winners since 1930.
Don’t fear the horse running on the rail, either. The No. 1 spot has won eight times, though it hasn’t happened since 1986 with Ferdinand.
Drawing No. 17, however appears to have some bad luck as it’s the only starting position yet to produce a winner. Derma Sotogake (13-1) will try to end that streak this year.
Per Covers:
| Post Position | Wins | Last win |
| 5 | 10 |
Always Dreaming (2017)
|
| 8 | 9 |
Medina Spirit (2021 DQ)*
|
| 10 | 9 |
Giacomo (2005)
|
| 1 | 8 |
Ferdinand (1986)
|
| 2 | 7 |
Affirmed (1978)
|
| 7 | 7 |
Justify (2018)
|
| 15 | 6 |
Authentic (2020)
|
| 3 | 5 |
Real Quiet (1998)
|
| 4 | 5 |
Super Saver (2010)
|
| 13 | 5 |
Nyquist (2016)
|
| 9 | 4 |
Riva Ridge (1972)
|
| 16 | 4 |
Animal Kingdom (2011)
|
| 12 | 3 |
Canonero II (1971)
|
| 6 | 2 |
Sea Hero (1993)
|
| 11 | 2 |
Winning Colors (1988)
|
| 14 | 2 |
Carry Back (1961)
|
| 18 | 2 |
Country House (2019)
|
| 20 | 2 |
Big Brown (2008), Rich Strike (2022)
|
| 19 | 1 |
I’ll Have Another (2012)
|
| 17 | 0 | – |
Bay is the greenest color
Mike Smith rides Justify to victory during the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 5, 2018, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Betting based on the color of a horse’s coat is as good a reason as any, right?
The clubhouse leader in wins is bay (56), followed by chestnut (49) and brown (17). Grey or roan horses have only won eight times with the last coming in 2005.
Here’s how this year’s field fits into those categories.
- Bay: Verifying (25-1), Confidence Game (20-1), Kingsbarns (11-1), Skinner (20-1), Sun Thunder (27-1), Angel of Empire (6-1), Forte (9-2), Raise Cain (33-1), Cyclone Mischief (50-1)
- Chestnut: Two Phil’s (8-1), Mage (18-1), Disarm (29-1), Jace’s Road (31-2), Derma Sotogake (12-1), Continuuar (54-1),
- Brown: Mandarin Hero (41-1)
- Grey/Roan: Hit Show (32-1), Tapit Trice (5-1), Reincarnate (16-1), Rocket Can (32-1)
Japan's struggles
Jockey Christophe Lemaire on Derma Sotogake competes to win the UAE Derby at the Dubai World Cup horse racing event at the Meydan track in Dubai on March 25, 2023. (Photo by KARIM SAHIB/AFP via Getty Images)
There are two Japanese horses running in this year’s Derby with Mandarin Hero (41-1) and Derma Sotogake (12-1). The latter has plenty of hype coming into the race, but drew the dreaded No. 17 spot.
Mandarin Hero drew into the race after Churchill Downs suspended trainer Saffie Jospeh Jr. indefinitely following the death of two of his horses earlier this week, leading to a scratch of Lord Miles.
No Japanese horse has ever won the Derby.
